[Jalhop]

Originally Posted by lvoc

We shall see. I still see no agreement in the RE community on what needs to happen.

You think the RE community can't agree that thousands of houses should become available to make a commission on? Notices of mortgage default spiked way up starting in March, in anticipation of AB 300's passage. It will take until next spring before those become foreclosures.

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by Jalhop

You think the RE community can't agree that thousands of houses should become available to make a commission on? Notices of mortgage default spiked way up starting in March, in anticipation of AB 300's passage. It will take until next spring before those become foreclosures.

The RE community has many pieces with widely varying views.

Very few people expect much to come of 300.

Las Vegas is not a low income city. Similar to LA and Phoenix. The upper third in household income.

[gaash2]

I will never understand how people can be bearish real estate but bullish gold, a much more useless asset, trading at 5x 2001 prices versus real estate trading at 1x 2001 prices. www.weekendanalyst.com for something on how much of a bubble gold is in.

[ScoopLV]

I'm sure we're going to see a gold correction soon. If gold really was such a good buy, why were so many companies selling it from 2008-2011?

I think it was basically a scare tactic to sell a product. Now that the average Joes have gold that they don't really need, these same companies can pull the rug out from under the gold market and buy the same metal when it comes crashing down. My crystal ball is often cloudy. But I'm betting this is how it plays out.

[Trader Joe99]

Scoop, remember what I said about the housing bottom and how to look for a bottom.
We will be at the real bottom when no one is interested in buying a house. When no one talks about housing, when interest rates are much higher then today, when no one want's to flipp homes.

So what about gold and silver bottom? Today everyone is negative about gold and silver. When majority turns bearish that is a sign we are close to the bottom. Once sentiment changes in precious metals we will see parabolic rise. Precious metals trade on sentiment only, fundamentals don't matter at all. Silver is good investment, I you don't want to hold physical silver you can buy PSLV Spott investment fund that is actually backed by the physical silver stored in Canada. Currently the premium is a minimum for PSLV.

[gaash2]

Originally Posted by Trader Joe99

Scoop, remember what I said about the housing bottom and how to look for a bottom.
We will be at the real bottom when no one is interested in buying a house. When no one talks about housing, when interest rates are much higher then today, when no one want's to flipp homes.

So what about gold and silver bottom? Today everyone is negative about gold and silver. When majority turns bearish that is a sign we are close to the bottom. Once sentiment changes in precious metals we will see parabolic rise. Precious metals trade on sentiment only, fundamentals don't matter at all. Silver is good investment, I you don't want to hold physical silver you can buy PSLV Spott investment fund that is actually backed by the physical silver stored in Canada. Currently the premium is a minimum for PSLV.

The herd is not always wrong. The herd is most likely going to be right when they are bullish something at 10 year lows (real estate today, more or less) versus when they are bullish something at all time highs (real estate in 06/07). Sentiment is meaningless in real estate. Real estate has the type of reputation that it is "always" a good time to buy. Look at gallup polls, I think the lowest the "is now a good time to buy a house" poll ever showed was something like 55% saying yes. You can't just bet against the herd without context. The herd is "always" bullish housing. They will be right some of the time.

Re: gold. I wrote www.weekendanalyst.com in October 2012, when gold was in the 1700s. Almost no one is fundamentally/long term bearish gold, only short term technical guys who just pile in on every trend whatever way it is going. Most of the bearish gold talk is: "I think it might go a bit lower and then I'm going to buy" That my friend, is not bearish. With all of that said, the way to be long gold here now is to buy out of the money calls. The vol skew is the most favorable it has been to buy calls on gold in a while as is the absolute level of out of the money call volatility. I own some as a hedge to my sizeable short gold position.

[Willy702]

Originally Posted by Trader Joe99

Scoop, remember what I said about the housing bottom and how to look for a bottom.
We will be at the real bottom when no one is interested in buying a house. When no one talks about housing, when interest rates are much higher then today, when no one want's to flipp homes.

So what about gold and silver bottom? Today everyone is negative about gold and silver. When majority turns bearish that is a sign we are close to the bottom. Once sentiment changes in precious metals we will see parabolic rise. Precious metals trade on sentiment only, fundamentals don't matter at all. Silver is good investment, I you don't want to hold physical silver you can buy PSLV Spott investment fund that is actually backed by the physical silver stored in Canada. Currently the premium is a minimum for PSLV.

Uh 2 years ago who wanted to buy a house? Houses were under your magic $80 number without much bidding wars and supply was plentiful. Why wasn't that the bottom?

[gaash2]

Originally Posted by Willy702

Uh 2 years ago who wanted to buy a house? Houses were under your magic $80 number without much bidding wars and supply was plentiful. Why wasn't that the bottom?

haha. It was the bottom, and will be the bottom for a long time.

[Seeker5in1]

Originally Posted by gaash2

haha. It was the bottom, and will be the bottom for a long time.

The fed is planning to end the stimulus effort and raise interest rates. That will put a new damper on the housing market. We haven't seen the "bottom".

[gaash2]

Originally Posted by Seeker5in1

The fed is planning to end the stimulus effort and raise interest rates. That will put a new damper on the housing market. We haven't seen the "bottom".

You read too much zerohedge. The end of stimulus will come but it is not yet and given it is the number one fear in the market, that usually means when it actually happens the impact will be muted.