[Matt121779]

We get a lot of posts in this forum about how strong the economy is in Las Vegas. I'd like to throw out a hypothetical. Let's say things in the country change and our tourism industry here comes to a halt. Do you think Las Vegas has a diversified enough economy to recover? We rebounded very strongly after 911; but for those who were here when it happened, they all tell me it was a tense few months. Everyone was in fear of being laid off. Also, water is also something to consider as I watch Lake Mead dwindle. I sometimes worry about planting roots here solely based on an underlying fear that one day this thriving community will become a ghost town. Any thoughts?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Matt121779

We get a lot of posts in this forum about how strong the economy is in Las Vegas. I'd like to throw out a hypothetical. Let's say things in the country change and our tourism industry here comes to a halt. Do you think Las Vegas has a diversified enough economy to recover? We rebounded very strongly after 911; but for those who were here when it happened, they all tell me it was a tense few months. Everyone was in fear of being laid off. Also, water is also something to consider as I watch Lake Mead dwindle. I sometimes worry about planting roots here solely based on an underlying fear that one day this thriving community will become a ghost town. Any thoughts?

You don't get a guarantee on any city in the long range. Things ebb and flow. I would think any reversal in Las Vegas in the next five years is virtually impossible and highly improbable in the next ten. Fifteen, twenty, twenty five? Who knows. Note though that such things occur quite slowly...Something like the entertainment industry in Las Vegas dies over 35 or 50 years...not in a sudden blow up.

Can it grow forever? Of course not. Runs into hard problems between 3 and 4 million. Water, land and economy all will run out of gas.

Note however there are very few places better off.

[guinnessjim]

Originally Posted by Matt121779

We get a lot of posts in this forum about how strong the economy is in Las Vegas. I'd like to throw out a hypothetical. Let's say things in the country change and our tourism industry here comes to a halt. Do you think Las Vegas has a diversified enough economy to recover? We rebounded very strongly after 911; but for those who were here when it happened, they all tell me it was a tense few months. Everyone was in fear of being laid off. Also, water is also something to consider as I watch Lake Mead dwindle. I sometimes worry about planting roots here solely based on an underlying fear that one day this thriving community will become a ghost town. Any thoughts?

being hypothetical, i think both are potential problems. unfortunately, the problems of either would not be localized to just vegas.

the west as a whole is/will be facing some serious questions regarding water. water wars shaped much of the early west, and unfortunately a lot of the existing water rights are based on unrealistic figures (the time when many of them were drawn up was significantly wetter than usual, and demand has increased beyond what was originally budgeted). although not the west, look at the recent minor freak out in the SE (georgia, etc.) re: water to see how things can get tense fast ( if i am not mistaken, there was talk of mobilizing the national guard to protect water rights...doubtful that it would come to that, but talk isn't always cheap)

the west does have some significant untouched aquifers, but the ramifications of tapping into these is unclear at best. but considering AZ/CA/NV's current reliance on surface western water (particularly the colorado watershed) it is hard to say what the future holds. it's always interesting (and sometimes scary) to listen to the hydrologists discussing this matter.

i can't really speak much on the tourism issue (as i have no real background in it), but i have to assume that if tourism dries up, the country as a whole is in serious financial trouble. i would assume this to mean that the economy has tanked and people do not have disposable income anymore....vegas would absolutely suffer as a result, although i don't think we would be alone in our misery.

[Stevie30]

Tourism is the bread and butter of the Las Vegas economy,so if their is a major downturn in the tourism industry,then Vegas will suffer from it,but I don't think it will ever become a ghost town,because of it's proximity to California.

[PinkString]

I think the only way it will become a ghost town is if an asteroid hits it and wipes out all life.

[dynimagelv]

No matter how bad the economy gets....and it has been bad before....it always seems that people can scrap up enough to bet "the hard way" to fulfill the American dream.

[Chest Rockwell]

One silver lining to the struggling US economy is the extra amount of foreign money brought in by people taking advantage of a weak dollar. I would assume that foreign tourism would grow as local tourism shrinks. Whether or not that would help enough, I have no idea.

[guinnessjim]

Originally Posted by Chest Rockwell

One silver lining to the struggling US economy is the extra amount of foreign money brought in by people taking advantage of a weak dollar. I would assume that foreign tourism would grow as local tourism shrinks. Whether or not that would help enough, I have no idea.

interesting point...do the longer term locals (primarily those that work in the hospitality and entertainment industry) notice more foreign tourists now that the dollar has weakened?

[dynimagelv]

I have noticed a small increase, but MOSTLY from Canada....We have always been strong with the Asian market and the european market has been strong since before the weakening of the dollar.

[olecapt]

I agree with GJ that the problem is SW wide. I don't how ever think it is really a question of water supply...it is more a question of what you do with it. The primarly use of the Colorado is agricultural. Well over 80%. On an economic basis agricultlure cannot compete for the water. So it goes that way based upon old custom and legal agreements. The Colorado compact basically screwed Nevada and heavily favored CA and, to a lesser extent, AZ agriculture. I don't see the compact getting redone as it would be practically impossible to reach a new agreement. I do however think it probable that a cap on usage combined with a change to a more economically driven market may change the whole nature of the problem.

I am not sure it is widely understood but the Las Vegas water problem is not unique. Tucson and a number of the cities of Southern California have as bad or worse problems.

The SNWA pipeline is not really a bad idea. It should eventually provide not only more water it provides a second source. That keeps everybody going in the event of problems on the Colorado. Combined with the local aquifer it has enough water to provide for human needs even if the green is hard hit.

I remain convinced that Las Vegas will run out of land before water. Time will tell.