[ParkTwain]

Originally Posted by yasudab

Japan went thru the same type of economic cycle and it took 15 years to get out of it. What makes anyone think that in America, things will miraculously turn around in 1 year and all of a sudden, prices will rise??? I think they are lying to themselves. Seriously, look at all the inventory. It will be at least a few years to get rid of all this excess inventory and prices will not rise, but will continue to fall. Anyone who says differently are probably people who are trying to make money off of real estate.

How much do you know about Japan's banking laws?

Japan's banks never wrote off their bad loans. The gov't wouldn't let any banks fail. This caused what economic recovery there was to completely creep along. Not the same situation in the US.

[olecapt]

Las Vegas will stabilize before the mddle of 2009. That is simply driven by the impact of the new strip developments. Absorbing another 200K people makes for a good market.

Las Vegas is going to be a real down market for the next few months.

The question is what happens in between.

Las Vegas builders went to build to contract at least 18 months ago. New build inventory is not large. Resale inventory is.

[Randy Culture]

I typed in "vegas bubble" into Google's news function and got this article:

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/12/...-collapse.html

[LIS123]

I'd give credibility to the thoughts and comments of Professor Schiller (referenced in the video above). He's been right in the past and is very pessimistic in general especially with regards to areas like LV.
Arguably, the most pessimistic economist if Nouriel Roubini of NYU.

See for yourself:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=616676494&play=1
http://www.rgemonitor.com/

[ackackack]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Las Vegas will stabilize before the mddle of 2009. That is simply driven by the impact of the new strip developments. Absorbing another 200K people makes for a good market.

Las Vegas is going to be a real down market for the next few months.

The question is what happens in between.

Las Vegas builders went to build to contract at least 18 months ago. New build inventory is not large. Resale inventory is.

What do you base your prediction of a stable market on? I'm curious if it is based on something factual. How are more low-paying service industry jobs going to correct our local housing problems? How many $11/hour casino workers is it going to take to buy a median-priced home in Las Vegas? Less than ten years ago, that was easy: two.

[AA702]

Originally Posted by ackackack

What do you base your prediction of a stable market on? I'm curious if it is based on something factual. How are more low-paying service industry jobs going to correct our local housing problems? How many $11/hour casino workers is it going to take to buy a median-priced home in Las Vegas? Less than ten years ago, that was easy: two.

You've got a point, but where are they going to house all those people? I don't think there is enough apartments right? I know there is going to be a lot of rentals for sure and rent is going up if the supply and demand doesn't correct itself.

[Eric Young]

Originally Posted by Randy Culture

I typed in "vegas bubble" into Google's news function and got this article:

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/12/...-collapse.html

Actually, Randy, when you typed in "vegas bubble" you got 80 returns. That you found one to support your opinion is hardly impressive.

[LIS123]

Originally Posted by ackackack

How many $11/hour casino workers is it going to take to buy a median-priced home in Las Vegas? Less than ten years ago, that was easy: two.

This is an important point. I can't find the article right now, but Prof Chris Mayer (Columbia GSB) outlined that cities like SF have experienced a change in the population with regards to the wealth breakdown. In SF, the relative percentage of wealthy people has gone up and the relative percentage of middle class and lower class people has gone down. In cities like LV, the composition of the population has stayed the same with regards to the wealth breakdown of the population. Adding new people and jobs is great but, if they're mainly lower level service jobs (as many in LV are), it may not support housing prices well. You can only charge what people are willing (and, hopefully, able) to pay, which is why places like NYC and SF have an advantage over places like Vegas. I would recommend carefully listening to Professor Roubini's comments and predictions for the future. He has good evidence for his positions.

[AA702]

Originally Posted by LIS123

This is an important point. I can't find the article right now, but Prof Chris Mayer (Columbia GSB) outlined that cities like SF have experienced a change in the population with regards to the wealth breakdown. In SF, the relative percentage of wealthy people has gone up and the relative percentage of middle class and lower class people has gone down. In cities like LV, the composition of the population has stayed the same with regards to the wealth breakdown of the population. Adding new people and jobs is great but, if they're mainly lower level service jobs (as many in LV are), it may not support housing prices well. You can only charge what people are willing (and, hopefully, able) to pay, which is why places like NYC and SF have an advantage over places like Vegas. I would recommend carefully listening to Professor Roubini's comments and predictions for the future. He has good evidence for his positions.

True, in SF the "haves" and "have not's" gap in income has really widened in the past decade. SF has a lot of good social programs that house the lower income, but that is also why they pay more taxes. I have some good friends in SF and they all rent and do not own.

[gulfer]

I finally found the article written by moody economist. The report is about 360+ pages long and basically broke down cities around the country. What I found very interesting was that it talked about in Las Vegas was the expected drop in prices from Peak to Trough. While the percentage was between 20%-30% with the Peak being 1st quarter 2006 and the Trough being 2nd quarter 2009!!! With the percentages already being about 10%, that leaves an incline that would make a truckers knuckles whiten if were a highway down a mountain, at least it gives something to look out for. Was a good read, but again, another forecast - the truth will come out, but not until it is hind sight.