[dynimagelv]

Originally Posted by noaguainvegas

What people fail to realize is, Lake Mead will run dry by 2015. What will your SSB (stucco sh$t box) be worth then?

Bull #$%^

[airics]

i second that "bull****"

[gulfer]

Some people are amazing and the level of stupididity continues to amaze me.

[Chest Rockwell]

I also take into account the imminent rapture when contemplating real estate investments.

[hasagos1]

I sincerely doubt that Donald Trump, MGM, etc. would be pumping in so much money into development of Las Vegas if they believed that Lake Mead would run dry by 2015. You seem to be spouting nonsensical alarmism.

It is possible at some point, water constraints might damper growth for a period of time. In the long run, personally I don’t believe this will be an issue. As the price of oil creeps higher and higher, capital inflows into the alternative energy sector are increasing enormously. At some point, maybe in 10 years or so, the era of high energy will morph into low-cost green energy. When this happens, the cost of desalinization (converting salt / ocean water into fresh water) should go down dramatically – as it’s a very energy-intensive process. Once this occurs, water will be abundant and plentiful, and you will literally be able to create farmland in the middle of the desert. The possibilities for growth at that point in time will seem endless.

[gulfer]

That and they'll have a pipe as round as the Las Vegas Race track built underground to get water directly from the Rocky Mountains.

[gulfer]

Here is a prediction for all of Nevada:

Nevada Real Estate, Las Vegas, Reno, Lake Tahoe, Carson City

Las Vegas: -14.6

I know Eric and Ole Capt discussed the 1% a week, but what about this number??

I know it would depend on tract, previous pricing, etc... but if you see some of the homes on Zip Realty it is not uncommon to see one that was listed within the last 6 months for 360K and now are asking 240K (Northwest Area - is where I found them).

Definately re-thinking my plans at least for early 2008.

Question: If everything you read says Doom, decrease in prices, etc... what if you went to a builder and was quoted at 300K. Is it reasonable to ask for a 10%-15% discount so you can still have them build (which they need for their business) but not start out 15-20% under on the home???

[airics]

i tried that with richmond homes a month ago, found a new home (not constructed yet) listed at 229, offered 208 to start and got laughed at.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by gulfer

Here is a prediction for all of Nevada:

Nevada Real Estate, Las Vegas, Reno, Lake Tahoe, Carson City

Las Vegas: -14.6

I know Eric and Ole Capt discussed the 1% a week, but what about this number??

I know it would depend on tract, previous pricing, etc... but if you see some of the homes on Zip Realty it is not uncommon to see one that was listed within the last 6 months for 360K and now are asking 240K (Northwest Area - is where I found them).

Definately re-thinking my plans at least for early 2008.

Question: If everything you read says Doom, decrease in prices, etc... what if you went to a builder and was quoted at 300K. Is it reasonable to ask for a 10%-15% discount so you can still have them build (which they need for their business) but not start out 15-20% under on the home???

I don't think you will get very far with that. The Builders will take the position that they have already taken the bad news in their existing prices.

Note that there are two things going on...Prices are dropping and the product mix selling is tilted toward the low end. The upper 40% of homes by list price is selling at about 21% of the sales. So as you get above around 300K there is much less price drop and much less volume in the sold mix.

Median is down almost 4% so far in January. I would think it will go down further as the month wears on. REPOs are now 30% of the sales. May get to 50% if the trend continues.

The 360K homes off more than 100K represent pretty much all new build at close to the peak. They come down 50K simply on the builders margin and then have dropped another 15% along with everything else. Note that they tend to be in the tracts with all the foreclosures. Saw one today on the golf course. Down a hundred K from 400K. But exactly that problem.

[Randy Culture]

Originally Posted by airics

i tried that with richmond homes a month ago, found a new home (not constructed yet) listed at 229, offered 208 to start and got laughed at.

Just walk away from the salesman, and you'll have the last laugh. They'll be stuck with these houses for years.