Las Vegas Real Estate Predictions For 2008?? (Pahrump: credit, loans, foreclosures)

[gulfer]

I've been searching all over the place to see what the so called "experts" seem to think for the Las Vegas real estate market. To sum it up, here is the conclusion I have come up with:

a. 2008 will start with a slow decrease in prices
b. After mid 2008 - prices will steady
c. By early 2009 prices begin to appreciate again

d. Most importantly, this is my opinion which in fact means nothing

I do however have a vested interst as we plan to buy this year. We are not going in blind and thinking that we'll make 100,000's of dollars when we sell it quick. We plan to live here and make our home here. We'll find a home we like, get a fixed interst rate at what we can afford, and make sure we don't get caught up in the whole housing mess.

I do feel very sorry for the good people that were blinded by this. If Vegas Real Estate drops another 10%, well then we'll get back to the break even point in 3-5 years

I really hope this thread takes off like the Real Estate Market one did. Thank you all in advance for your thoughts and predictions.

[Eric Young]

Originally Posted by gulfer

I really hope this thread takes off like the Real Estate Market one did. Thank you all in advance for your thoughts and predictions.

Please forgive me, Gulfer, but I'll just watch this one.

There's no way I'm going to retype all my 800-word posts from the other thread!!

[PinkString]

I think it won't rebound til around early 2010. Which will give me some time to save up for increased property taxes by that time.

[floridasandy]

with 24,216 properties listed on realtor.com i do not think it will pick up anytime soon.

[LIS123]

The drop in home sales in November was larger than expected, so that's not a good sign. I remember reading that the LV market had one of the biggest declines in median price (Tampa was high as well), but can only find the link to a general article (not the one where the LV market is mentioned). The inventory of unsold homes continues to rise. As consumers tighten spending, things will slow in LV tourism. I believe '07 may not have been that great vs '06 in the first place. As floridasandy said, there are plenty of homes for sale in LV. There maybe a good number more that will go into foreclosure without being in that situation yet. It probably will take until 2010 or longer for the market in LV to rebound. Remember, the markets that shot up the most (especially those whose economies did not grow nearly enough to justify the increase in home prices) are the places where prices will drop the most. LV and Phoenix are high on this list. Be patient; things are likely to get worse before getting better in general and in LV. The median home price in the LV area is still $296K. It;s only down about 7% from the high of $318K. There was a 20% increase from 2004-2006. The median price in 2000 was only $161K, so it went up 98% in 6 years. You can do the math; it has a ways to come down!

http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/MSAPRICESF.pdf/$FILE/MSAPRICESF.pdf
http://www.luxuryhomeslasvegasnevada...reciation.html

[jfkIII]

My prediction, which you could have already summized...is that LV is doomed. Since the 1800's, major cities have run in cycles: Startup - Prosper - BOOM - BUST - Rebuild. IMO, LV is in the beginning of stage 4, which usually happens because the Prosper period was not properly planned, in the development sense.

Don't know if the BUST period will continue past 2008, but I suspect it will take many more years to fully get to the point where rebuild will take place.

Detroit was once considered a BOOM town, too.

[airics]

you can call me nuts but here is my input.. lots of foreclosures = lots of renters.. so if you didnt sign up for one of those arms, yes your home went down in value (7%ish) but there are still renters and also look at the strip, tons of construction in progress or coming...

[jfkIII]

Tourist Vegas may survive a BUST, but resident Vegas may not. Read about the new kind of Ghost Towns....

http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Art...5241&GT1=10729

[airics]

for crying out loud, enough with the bust.. the problem is all the people who bit off more than they can chew with the arm loans that are skyrocketing or the ones that refied and took all the invisible equity.. i believe the reason the house values are going down is the number of repos.. how low can the prices go.. do you really think you are ever going to buy a house (not a repo) in a gated community for 150k.. maybe a 1000sf one, but not a normal sized home.. avg is still 296k in vegas.. heck this is the best time to buy in my opinion

[Eric Young]

Originally Posted by LIS123

The drop in home sales in November was larger than expected...

Oct. 2007 SFR Sales: 938
Nov. 2007 SFR Sales: 933

Originally Posted by LIS123

The inventory of unsold homes continues to rise.

Oct. 2007 SFR Listings: 20,378
Nov. 2007 SFR Listings: 20,028

Originally Posted by LIS123

As consumers tighten spending, things will slow in LV tourism.

This prediction is likely to be incorrect. In tough economic times, gambling – like alcohol and tobacco – is a panacea. In October 2007, revenues for strip casinos were up 19.8% over the previous year. LV gaming stocks are among the best performers in recent quarters.

International Herald Tribune, Dec. 26, 2007 – LAS VEGAS PROVES IMMUNE TO JITTERY ECONOMY
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/12/26/business/gamble.php

Originally Posted by LIS123

The median home price in the LV area is still $296K. It;s only down about 7% from the high of $318K. There was a 20% increase from 2004-2006. The median price in 2000 was only $161K, so it went up 98% in 6 years. You can do the math; it has a ways to come down!

Two points about the numbers you’re citing:

First, they reflect all resale transactions in the Greater Las Vegas Area. Condos are lumped with houses, mansions are lumped with shacks, Pahrump is lumped with Lake Las Vegas.

Second, the data is for Q3 2007 – it’s old. Most of that quarter does not reflect the bite of the credit crunch that occurred in August and began to show up in the numbers of September.

For current information on prices, please see my post on the other thread:

Originally Posted by Eric Young

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF Q4 2007 PRICE ACTIVITY ...