[Retired in Vegas]

I Las Vegas housing prices dip 0.9 percent in July

"Las Vegas housing resale prices dipped in July but remained higher than they were a year ago, while sales volume continued to climb, according to a new report.

The median sales price of single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada last month was $218,000, down 0.9 percent from June but up 9 percent from July 2014, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.

Buyers picked up 3,180 single-family homes last month, up 4 percent from June and 20.4 percent from July 2014.

The number of ignored listings, however, also rose. There were 7,636 single-family homes on the market without offers by the end of July, up 2.7 percent from June and 5 percent from a year ago, the GLVAR reported."

In conclusion, home prices dipped from the previous month, sales are up YOY and inventory is up YOY and month over monh as well.
Majority of buyers responsible for sales increase are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack government sponsored loan buyers. In other words people who have no business owning a house are buying again.

You have to remember that 2014 was a terrible year for housing sales, so while YOY sales increase may look much in reality it only looks good becuase of terrible sales in 2014. Sales are still bellow normal and home ownership rate is back at multi year low.

We will continue to see inventory rising and prices falling for the rest of the year. Of course all buyers who purchased homes in few last years will be underwater very soon.

I wish we could discuss here how to warn potential buyers of buying a house now becuase IMHO they will all ruin themselves financialy buying overpriced homes. Now is not very smart to buy a house so late in the game.

[SportyandMisty]

Originally Posted by Willy702

... The rest of us choose to stay in the reality of what the market is today... People are still moving into Las Vegas in large numbers and a far larger percentage of them are choosing to be renters.

Willy,

What's your view on the supply of housing here?

[nickydim]

Originally Posted by Retired in Vegas

We will continue to see inventory rising and prices falling for the rest of the year. Of course all buyers who purchased homes in few last years will be underwater very soon.

I wish we could discuss here how to warn potential buyers of buying a house now becuase IMHO they will all ruin themselves financialy buying overpriced homes. Now is not very smart to buy a house so late in the game.

You opinion is not shared by me. You assumptions are fear driven. LV home prices still are below national averages, and a 9% Y-O-Y(last 12 months) is still a great performance. I'm in the market to buy, and I'm actively looking, and home prices are where they should be. They are not overpriced, and as much as you want it to be 2010-12 again, it's not. It's not a bad buyers market out there, so to say it's "not very smart to buy a house so late in the game" isn't a fair statement. The game? How long does the game run? If you buy a house now it wont be worth far more in 15 years?

Of course all buyers who purchased homes in few last years will be underwater very soon.

I bought a house in the last few years and it's up 60%. How drastic a downturn you think has to happen for me to lose money on my purchase? The only way I'd be underwater is if Lake Mead rises to new record levels.

[lvoc]

This is the same old doom and gloom patter we have heard repeatedly since the start of the recovery.

At this point the market shows no real sign of weakness. It is actually up a little in July. And it continues to hold in there at 3 month of inventory.

For the last three years we show a pattern of growth in the spring, flattening in the summer and fall and then a minimum in the December January time frame. So basically you will not have a good handle on 2016 until we get into March.

It is reasonably obvious that the Las Vegas economy is growing.. Just drive the spaghetti bowl at rush hour for a demonstration. All the convention bureau numbers also support such a view.

Barring a new recession it looks pretty good.

@Ute. I hesitate on commercial. An office mate who works it exclusively is looking happy after years of being sad for whatever that is worth. And a rising economy would tend to float commercial as well. I do not however follow it well enough to have a valid opinion.

[UTES]

Originally Posted by lvoc

@Ute. I hesitate on commercial. An office mate who works it exclusively is looking happy after years of being sad for whatever that is worth. And a rising economy would tend to float commercial as well. I do not however follow it well enough to have a valid opinion.

I appreciate that, lvoc. I'm watching the commercial market as I think it will represent the recovery has substantially filtered down (or sideways).

Bill

[ScoopLV]

This was written in Nov. 2007, when the housing market was just starting to become skittish on its way to a full-on panic.

Originally Posted by olecapt

The probability that Las Vegas will ever get to the prices prior to March of 2004 is zilch.

He then spent the next few years announcing that the bottom of the crash had finally arrived. This happened so often, some users began calling him "Capt. Bottomcaller."

If anyone here believes ANYONE'S predictions or claims of a crystal ball, they deserve whatever financial bath they take. The herd could decide tomorrow that desert metropolises were a dumb idea, and that's that for real estate in Las Vegas. Unlikely -- but it's a possibility.

The Eurozone could melt down and take us down with it. Again, unlikely. But could happen.

But I vividly remember 2006, when local realtors were practically screaming "Buy, buy, buy! The market is going nowhere but up! If you don't buy now, you may never be able to afford to!"

And I can dredge this forum and find examples where local "experts" advise people to bite the financial bullet and buy at the height of the last bubble. You can, too. Just search this forum for the 2006 real estate questions. The answers aren't just ridiculous -- they're embarrassing thanks to hindsight.

I repeat:

If anyone here believes ANYONE'S predictions or claims of a crystal ball, they deserve whatever financial bath they take.

[stizz44]

This report says Las Vegas is looking at 12% appreciation:


Rental Ranking Report: 2014 Second Quarter Report - APM

[ScoopLV]

How soon we forget. Toss out the local "experts" for a moment, and look at what the financial magazines and pundits were saying in 2006 about Real Estate. Most of them got it wrong, too. And the few lone voices in the wilderness predicting a mortgage derivative meltdown were marginalized by the "Buy! Buy! Buy!" frenzy.

They're all basically Jim Cramer,



We all know how well that worked out, yes?

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by ScoopLV

This was written in Nov. 2007, when the housing market was just starting to become skittish on its way to a full-on panic.



He then spent the next few years announcing that the bottom of the crash had finally arrived. This happened so often, some users began calling him "Capt. Bottomcaller."

If anyone here believes ANYONE'S predictions or claims of a crystal ball, they deserve whatever financial bath they take. The herd could decide tomorrow that desert metropolises were a dumb idea, and that's that for real estate in Las Vegas. Unlikely -- but it's a possibility.

The Eurozone could melt down and take us down with it. Again, unlikely. But could happen.

But I vividly remember 2006, when local realtors were practically screaming "Buy, buy, buy! The market is going nowhere but up! If you don't buy now, you may never be able to afford to!"

And I can dredge this forum and find examples where local "experts" advise people to bite the financial bullet and buy at the height of the last bubble. You can, too. Just search this forum for the 2006 real estate questions. The answers aren't just ridiculous -- they're embarrassing thanks to hindsight.

I repeat:

If anyone here believes ANYONE'S predictions or claims of a crystal ball, they deserve whatever financial bath they take.

It is obvious that I and virtually everyone else missed the great crash.. Still love to know how that actually happened. When banks respond to increased volume and no inventory by crashing the price you know you are in uncharted territory.

From early in trhe crash.

Originally Posted by olecapt

In years past I was involved in attempts to model and predict economic trends. Bottom line the best predictor is that next month will be like last month. You can build in certain temporal cycles and such but not much else works.

We are often very good at explaining what happened and even erecting models that show all the statistics and math involved. However such models always fail when aimed at the future rather than the past.

So mostly this is bright guys swishing the tea leaves and making an educated guess about what happens next.

At this point the Las Vegas market has clearly stopped dropping in volume and appears to have at least stabiliized in price. I would think we will certainly cross over last years volume within six months...maybe sooner.

I have not the faintest idea what price is going to do. The normal trend is for rising sales volumes to push prices up...but that may be partially or fully offset by the impact of continuing foreclosures.

It is also possible that macro economic things going on in the country at large may create leverage that shoots the Vegas rally before it gains any volume. Could happen...but historically Vegas runs to its own drummer.

Anyway at least the RE Agent can begin to feel a little more optimistic. We don't care about prices as much as about volume. And it sures looks like the volume is coming and fast.

There are all sorts of stories about who made out in the bubble. From that same period.

Originally Posted by olecapt

The real operators that drove the bulge all got away clean with tons of money. There were a lot of people that made a million or more with effectively no risk and in less than two years. And they did not get hurt by the downtown.

The biggest victims were the first time home buyers from late 2004 to early 2007. All they got for their effort is a huge loss and likely a bad credit rating.

[ScoopLV]

Originally Posted by lvoc

It is obvious that I and virtually everyone else missed the great crash.

I didn't. I bought in 2007 knowing full-well that we were already in free fall. I bought anyway because losing half is still better than renting and losing all. My wife and I discussed at length the financial hit we were about to take. And then we bought anyway.

You should change your status to "It is obvious that I missed the great crash." No need to soften it by adding "and virtually everyone else." You can use those extra characters to add, "And the bottom of the crash, dozens of times."