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Old 01-28-2008, 01:16 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,757 posts, read 20,313,911 times
Reputation: 2661
I see no liklihood of the downturn extending beyond spring 2009. Simply too much coming on line in 2008 and 2009. May be earlier than that. It will not happen this spring as the present trend is still too strong. But from then on it could occur at any time.

It is simply a question of confidence. When the low end buyer decides it is safe to enter the market the downturn will end. At that point there will be a set of factors that will likely cause at least a short term price increase. Note that the banks ceasing to sell REPOs at large discounts will take the price up in and of itself.
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Old 01-28-2008, 01:21 PM
 
Location: Issaquah, WA
818 posts, read 2,599,277 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vegas_storms View Post
4th quarter 2009 to 2nd quarter 2010, expect another 25-35% drop in homes here during that time, anyone else telling you different is either living in a dream world or has something to gain by giving you false hope.
This is a reasonable guess, but still a guess. I'm anxious to know how your prediction of another 30% decline is more valid than another person's prediction of levelling prices in the next 6-12 months?

Bottom line is that nobody knows how this will shake out. The scope of the mortgage crisis in conjunction with a looming recession leads me to believe that there is still room for more falling prices, but that's only a guess. Anyone telling you different is so full of self-importance, they're confusing their opinion with fact.
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Old 01-28-2008, 01:26 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,757 posts, read 20,313,911 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chest Rockwell View Post
This is a reasonable guess, but still a guess. I'm anxious to know how your prediction of another 30% decline is more valid than another person's prediction of levelling prices in the next 6-12 months?

Bottom line is that nobody knows how this will shake out. The scope of the mortgage crisis in conjunction with a looming recession leads me to believe that there is still room for more falling prices, but that's only a guess. Anyone telling you different is so full of self-importance, they're confusing their opinion with fact.
Uhhh define "reasonable". It is a guess...but why do you find it reasonable?
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Old 01-28-2008, 03:22 PM
 
Location: Issaquah, WA
818 posts, read 2,599,277 times
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reasonable.... because there are conditions such as a mortgage crisis, low consumer confidence and a sluggish economy that could all lead to continuing price decline. Even this apocalyptic figure of 30% would still leave prices around the pre-bubble numbers of 2003.

I don't necessarily agree with the statement or the poster's relative certainty and arrogant dismissal of any other possible outcomes, but it seems within the scope of reason. Obviously, at the far negative end of the scope though.
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Old 01-28-2008, 03:47 PM
 
Location: Here and there, you decide.
9,494 posts, read 14,560,705 times
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interesting.. on the MSNBC - MSNBC - Breaking World News and US News Stories & Headlines - Get the Latest Business, Health, Entertainment, Sports, & Technology updates from around the world Front Page site in the business section , it talks about the where the hot and cold spots are... vegas did not make either hot or cold list.. i see this as a good sign, florida and california make up for the biggest losses in the last 12 months.
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Old 01-28-2008, 03:49 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,757 posts, read 20,313,911 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chest Rockwell View Post
reasonable.... because there are conditions such as a mortgage crisis, low consumer confidence and a sluggish economy that could all lead to continuing price decline. Even this apocalyptic figure of 30% would still leave prices around the pre-bubble numbers of 2003.

I don't necessarily agree with the statement or the poster's relative certainty and arrogant dismissal of any other possible outcomes, but it seems within the scope of reason. Obviously, at the far negative end of the scope though.
If 2003 pricing is reasonable why not 2001? 1998? Both could certainly happen with only slightly more apocalyptic views than reverting to 2003. A good solid depression could certainly move us back to the mid 1990s. Is that a reasonable projection at this point in time? It could happen. Wynn and MGM could stop their projects... the strip tourist volumes could drop by half. Las Vegas could start losing 10,000 people a month.

But is it reasonable to make such a projection?

I would expect reasonable to reflect some rational view of the coming future. If the strip development continues we will not see 2003 or worse pricing. If it does not we might. So is it reasonable to assume such a dismal vision?

I don't thinks so...
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Old 01-28-2008, 04:44 PM
 
Location: Issaquah, WA
818 posts, read 2,599,277 times
Reputation: 239
Quote:
If 2003 pricing is reasonable why not 2001? 1998? Both could certainly happen with only slightly more apocalyptic views than reverting to 2003.
Far be it from me to keep arguing a position I don't even agree with, but the difference is that real estate prices doubling between 2003 and 2006 was freakishly abnormal. That is why I wouldn't rule out the reverse: prices falling as quickly as they rose.

If RE prices fueled by irresponsible lending and hysterical investing can double, then why can't they fall at the same rate when these irresponsible loans default and the hysteria points away from buying instead of toward?

Listen, I own two houses, one of which I'd love to sell in the coming year. So I'm just as hopeful as you that this levels off and soon. I'm just playing devil's advocate. Obviously, vegas_storms is not capable of a rational and intelligent conversation, so I'm just trying to fill in.
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Old 01-28-2008, 05:35 PM
 
65 posts, read 179,894 times
Reputation: 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
I see no liklihood of the downturn extending beyond spring 2009. Simply too much coming on line in 2008 and 2009. May be earlier than that. It will not happen this spring as the present trend is still too strong. But from then on it could occur at any time.

It is simply a question of confidence. When the low end buyer decides it is safe to enter the market the downturn will end. At that point there will be a set of factors that will likely cause at least a short term price increase. Note that the banks ceasing to sell REPOs at large discounts will take the price up in and of itself.
Incorrect Olecat ,as usual, when the "low end" buyer can AFFORD to enter the market then it will start to stabilize, not before. I'm in the finance business, your a cab or bus driver as for as I can figure from your post I would stick to driving.

With the median income hovering between 45k and 50k that would allow a buyer with average(median) income to afford 160k if they had "no other debt". Were not talking about all the asinine loans of the past, but what it will take from here on out to buy a house(go find a mortgage calculator for yourself).

How much can I afford calculator

With only 52.7%(city-data) married that leaves a huge amount of people that do not have dual incomes and therefore would only be able to afford the above with respectable debt ratios. This town has decent jobs but no where near what's needed to sustain the current level median of around 300k, which is why I "believe" it will fall 25%-35% or $75k to 105k before leveling off. With a 15%-20% "projected" decline this year alone it will take many many years for people to dig themselves out.

The growth in this town has kept everything going for many many years, but that will have to stop at some point in the future. Whether that's 5 or 20 years, well your guess is a good as mine. When it does stop and it will, this town will be in bigger trouble then it is now. It's not a matter of "if" it stops it's a matter of when. No town can in the world can sustain the growth this town has see in the last 20 years forever(fact not guess).

Most of this information is not a "guess" but numbers and numbers do not lie.

Whether you folks love or hate the information I've posted the last 2 days, it's real and doesn't come with the sugar coating some of these people like to spread around. There are a lot of good posters on city-data and then there are the ones that beneift financial from telling you something or they work at McDonalds and are an expert about finances.

Whichever it is, I do not have the time or patience to post 1000's upon 1000's of times on here to counter what others think. This "is" Vegas, some of it's beautiful some of it's horrible but I for one have an actual life beyond the forums of the internet and will now leave you with the permanent residents of the Las Vegas/city-data forum.
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Old 01-28-2008, 05:44 PM
 
Location: Calgary, AB
315 posts, read 1,066,395 times
Reputation: 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chest Rockwell View Post
Anyone telling you different is so full of self-importance, they're confusing their opinion with fact.
Nicely done, you just summed up the internet
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Old 01-28-2008, 06:16 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,757 posts, read 20,313,911 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by vegas_storms View Post
Incorrect Olecat ,as usual, when the "low end" buyer can AFFORD to enter the market then it will start to stabilize, not before. I'm in the finance business, your a cab or bus driver as for as I can figure from your post I would stick to driving.

With the median income hovering between 45k and 50k that would allow a buyer with average(median) income to afford 160k if they had "no other debt". Were not talking about all the asinine loans of the past, but what it will take from here on out to buy a house(go find a mortgage calculator for yourself).
Financial type? Really.. You are going to have a miserable time here. First off the median income in this area is not between 45K and 50K And your error is more than 15%. Go work that out to start. If you don't have the numbers straight it is hard to do this stuff. And there are vast swipes of the US where 50K is considered suitable to buy a $150K house. Check the ratios virtually anywhere in CA or MA or Metro NY/NJ or suburban DC. But lets presume you want Dallas ratios. That would mean that our 100K condos must be selling like mad...nope...deader than roadkill...probably the hardest hit segment in the marketplace. Financing problems is always the next cry of the continuing doom apologists. Nope. No showings. Can't get turned down if you don't ask...and nobody is asking.



Quote:
With only 52.7%(city-data) married that leaves a huge amount of people that do not have dual incomes and therefore would only be able to afford the above with respectable debt ratios. This town has decent jobs but no where near what's needed to sustain the current level median of around 300k, which is why I "believe" it will fall 25%-35% or $75k to 105k before leveling off. With a 15%-20% "projected" decline this year alone it will take many many years for people to dig themselves out.
Another rule. City-Data data is pretty much worthless. They collect public sources and seldom update it. So unless you know the City Data source you never cite their data.

Married and living together are different states both of which lead to houshold income as do adult children and such. The data for household income is not dependent on marriage status.

Ohh the current median is around $250K and that is for a single family and not a condo...which is around $75K less. So it is reasonably clear that a nice 3BR 2 Bath condo is easily within the reach of the median income earner. Why don't they buy it?

Quote:
The growth in this town has kept everything going for many many years, but that will have to stop at some point in the future. Whether that's 5 or 20 years, well your guess is a good as mine. When it does stop and it will, this town will be in bigger trouble then it is now. It's not a matter of "if" it stops it's a matter of when. No town can in the world can sustain the growth this town has see in the last 20 years forever(fact not guess).
All good things come to an end. So what? Not a present issue. Nothing blocks Las Vegas for at least the next 10 years. I hope we run out of gas rather than into a wall but time will tell. I would suspect we can have the argument about what to do then when we get there...if we both live long enough.


Quote:
Most of this information is not a "guess" but numbers and numbers do not lie.
Aside from the fact all your numbers are wrong they are numbers.

Quote:
Whether you folks love or hate the information I've posted the last 2 days, it's real and doesn't come with the sugar coating some of these people like to spread around. There are a lot of good posters on city-data and then there are the ones that beneift financial from telling you something or they work at McDonalds and are an expert about finances.

Whichever it is, I do not have the time or patience to post 1000's upon 1000's of times on here to counter what others think. This "is" Vegas, some of it's beautiful some of it's horrible but I for one have an actual life beyond the forums of the internet and will now leave you with the permanent residents of the Las Vegas/city-data forum.
Hey that is the nicest thing you have said so far...
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