[bayview6]

Originally Posted by RCCCB

NEW YORK (AP) -- Home prices are falling in most major U.S. cities, and the average prices in four of them are at their lowest point in 11 years.
Home values in Atlanta, Las Vegas, Detroit and Cleveland are now below January 2000 levels.

Home prices falling in most major US cities - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-prices-falling-in-most-apf-2179818115.html?x=0&.v=1 - broken link)

And again those who predicted we hit bottom eat crow.
I hear 13% vacancies nationally as well.
Hope and change?

That 13% vacancy rate is not entirely corrrect. It also includes seasonal or part-time homes. I own 3 houses and live part-time in all 3, and yet the people who figger vacant houses include 2 of my houses as "vacant."

Maine, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Vermont, Florida have plenty of seasonal houses.

I would say that we are VERY close to the bottom in LV although we might stay there for some time. Some housing markets like San Diego and Washington, DC, the home prices are going up.

[Superman12]

Originally Posted by bayview6

T

I would say that we are VERY close to the bottom in LV although we might stay there for some time. Some housing markets like San Diego and Washington, DC, the home prices are going up.

We are not even close yet buddy!!!

[bayview6]

Originally Posted by Superman12

We are not even close yet buddy!!!

Las Vegas real estate prices are back to 1999 levels. If you consider the amount of inflation since then, nominal prices are very much lower.

Prices could go lower for the houses that nobody wants but for the top 1/3 of the market I doubt that prices will go much lower because plenty of people are looking for "deals".

[Swigchow]

Originally Posted by bayview6

Las Vegas real estate prices are back to 1999 levels. If you consider the amount of inflation since then, nominal prices are very much lower.

Prices could go lower for the houses that nobody wants but for the top 1/3 of the market I doubt that prices will go much lower because plenty of people are looking for "deals".

An alternative hypothesis is that the lower end has reached the bottom, but the top end has room to drop further.

[Superman12]

Originally Posted by bayview6

las vegas real estate prices are back to 1999 levels. If you consider the amount of inflation since then, nominal prices are very much lower.

Prices could go lower for the houses that nobody wants but for the top 1/3 of the market i doubt that prices will go much lower because plenty of people are looking for "deals".

I have read that as much as 180,000 homes are shadowed inventory. These homes are not release due to the fact that banks are controlling the shadow inventory. The banks don't want the property values to fall even further.

[jfkIII]

Originally Posted by Superman12

I have read that as much as 180,000 homes are shadowed inventory. These homes are not release due to the fact that banks are controlling the shadow inventory. The banks don't want the property values to fall even further.

Only...The Shadow...knows.

[Superman12]

Originally Posted by jfkIII

Only...The Shadow...knows.

lol

[Sheryl_Jones]

Good discussion going on about current state of the market, if it's reached bottom or leveling off and how the various market segments could be moving in different directions with more or less leeway to go up or down, depending on what market segment one is talking about - high, middle or low.

Here is a question, since I don't know LV much, only what I read in the papers or online, but for the RE market in LV, where are the price points that divide it between high, middle and low range properties for SFRs and also for condos, which I assume SFR and condo would carry different price point boundaries.

And how low is low. I recently read somewhere that under $100,000 is not much left anymore in nice quality SFRs except for some condos. Is the under $100,000 price point going to find properties either in bad locations or else bad condition?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Swigchow

An alternative hypothesis is that the lower end has reached the bottom, but the top end has room to drop further.

Another alternative is that the banks have hit the low end far higher than the high end. Roughly two thirds of the lowest quintile is REO while 28% of the upper quintile is the same.

That alone can lead to the low end being 30% harder hit than the upper end.

So it would appear that the lenders continue to sell below market...driving the lower end much lower than it would naturally be...

Says low end homes may well snap back if, and when, the lenders stop dumping.

iT Also suggests the low end is the artificial one...which more or less checks with the historical data.

[Sheryl_Jones]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Another alternative is that the banks have hit the low end far higher than the high end. Roughly two thirds of the lowest quintile is REO while 28% of the upper quintile is the same.

That alone can lead to the low end being 30% harder hit than the upper end.

So it would appear that the lenders continue to sell below market...driving the lower end much lower than it would naturally be...

Says low end homes may well snap back if, and when, the lenders stop dumping.

iT Also suggests the low end is the artificial one...which more or less checks with the historical data.

Here is something I have wondered, but the way the banks tend to release a lot of low-end REOs but not as many high end REOs, I kept thinking that maybe they were more inclined to "punish" the low end (poorer end) of the market rather than hurt the middle and higher end of the market, since that would be the people with more money, money invested into homes and businesses, more apt to be borrowing in the future larger amounts, where as among the lower priced RE the banks wouldn't care so much if that hurt the people on the lower ends, forcing their market prices to drop and forcing some into short-sale as a result.

Where are the numeric cut-off points between low, medium and high end RE in LV?

Is it anything below $100,000 is low, anything higher than $100,000 but lower than $200,000 is middle and high end is higher than $200,000?

I am trying to discern if for a SFR in a fairly good zipcode, not too old but in need of repairs and upgrades, a $75,000 price tag is high, low or reasonable, if at $75,000 one can't go wrong or if that is considered a high price in LV.