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Old 05-25-2009, 07:10 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,441,281 times
Reputation: 493

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fastrudy View Post
Wow! I guess I am real lucky. I closed on May 13 under list (by 4K on a list of 116.9K). Thank you, Olecapt.
You were lucky, I was lucky, rpachigo was lucky, etc. I guess Lady Luck is alive and well in Vegas.
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Old 05-26-2009, 01:50 AM
 
4,536 posts, read 10,583,688 times
Reputation: 4068
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
How do you do that? They don't answer the phone and accept an offer in 48 hours.
They did on the place my friend just bought in N. Las Vegas...the one that I posted about being near Ann and Tropical.

Fourth offer he places(the other 3 he was out bid on). Offer submitted, bank got back to his agent, back to my friend within one day. Friend was given 24 hours to respond confirming acceptance.

Oh yeah, the bid despite being over list was still about 8% below January list for similiar properties. Same thing with all the places he was outbid on.

So what did I learn from empirical evidence?

#1. That listing are currently significantly below listings earlier
#2. Multiple bids for each property
#3. The final selling price is well below the listing amounts for January, but higher than current list.

Gee who would have thought that lower listing prices and lower selling prices would induce more bids and more sales?

Maybe anyone who has received a passing grade in ECON 101?
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Old 05-26-2009, 08:44 AM
 
Location: Rockport Texas from El Paso
2,602 posts, read 8,493,404 times
Reputation: 1606
Here's a good link- las vegas 2nd wave of foreclosures hitting this year - prediction 27% decline in prices.
Nevada Housing, Las Vegas, Reno, Lake Tahoe, Carson City

I read these guys now and then and they are pretty accurate.
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Old 05-26-2009, 09:56 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,066,910 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnG72 View Post
They did on the place my friend just bought in N. Las Vegas...the one that I posted about being near Ann and Tropical.

Fourth offer he places(the other 3 he was out bid on). Offer submitted, bank got back to his agent, back to my friend within one day. Friend was given 24 hours to respond confirming acceptance.

Oh yeah, the bid despite being over list was still about 8% below January list for similiar properties. Same thing with all the places he was outbid on.

So what did I learn from empirical evidence?

#1. That listing are currently significantly below listings earlier
#2. Multiple bids for each property
#3. The final selling price is well below the listing amounts for January, but higher than current list.

Gee who would have thought that lower listing prices and lower selling prices would induce more bids and more sales?

Maybe anyone who has received a passing grade in ECON 101?
Median and average price were down around 11% from January to April. Note that both the median and average are selling at about list. So paying over/under is about equal.

Volume is hugely up, inventory is vastly down...so of course prices are going down fast...

Which econ text is that in?
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Old 05-26-2009, 09:59 AM
 
Location: Fort Worth and Las Vegas
255 posts, read 555,312 times
Reputation: 73
Actually inventory is flat yoy. I guess you don't understand numbers.

HousingTracker.net | Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for Las Vegas, Nevada
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Old 05-26-2009, 12:04 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,066,910 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by rpachigo View Post
Actually inventory is flat yoy. I guess you don't understand numbers.

HousingTracker.net | Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for Las Vegas, Nevada

If you use screwy sites you will get screwy numbers.

SFR inventory is down 3.6%. Sales are up 78%. The inventory of SFR REOs has gone from 10 months to under one month.

Folllow the blog graph...see what actually happens.
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Old 05-26-2009, 12:32 PM
 
Location: Fort Worth and Las Vegas
255 posts, read 555,312 times
Reputation: 73
Likewise your screwy data makes no sense. There has been a bump up in listings recently as many house inventory sites show - you just choose to ignore them and denigrate the sites as an insult. Obviously you cannot see the forest for the trees. And of course we will run out of SFR REOS in one month which you have stated seemingly going on two years now - YAWN.
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Old 05-26-2009, 12:42 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,441,281 times
Reputation: 493
He's referring to April MLS data. SFR inventory is down 3.6% but he didn't see fit to mention that condo and townhome inventory is up 4.7%. I guess those don't count. MLS numbers also won't reflect all of what little new home construction there is, nor FSBOs. So for all intents and purposes, as you noted, YoY inventory is flat.
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Old 05-26-2009, 01:00 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,066,910 times
Reputation: 2661
You look at inventory in terms of what is actually available to sell.

Even the GLVAR numbers are loaded with shorts that will convert to foreclosures and are not actually available to a buyer.

I consistently work my numbers for SFRs only. That is because it is the only consistent base available. You could actually use townhomes but there are simply too few. All condo numbers are flakey and going to stay that way for some time yet. You see much more the impact of the ill-conceived conversions than anything else.

Just the change in sales lowers the inventory relative to sales by 56%.

And the crucial REO inventory contuines to march toward zero.

Interesting times.
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Old 05-26-2009, 01:35 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,441,281 times
Reputation: 493
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
You look at inventory in terms of what is actually available to sell.
So condos and townhomes are not actually available to sell? Does that mean I have to give mine back?
Quote:
Even the GLVAR numbers are loaded with shorts that will convert to foreclosures and are not actually available to a buyer.
Odd that you should have your clients bid on properties that are unavailable to buyers. Wouldn't your time be better spent having them bid on properties that are actually available to them?
Quote:
I consistently work my numbers for SFRs only. That is because it is the only consistent base available. You could actually use townhomes but there are simply too few. All condo numbers are flakey and going to stay that way for some time yet. You see much more the impact of the ill-conceived conversions than anything else.
Oddly enough, the GLVAR manages to report on condo and townhome inventory month in and month out.
Quote:
Just the change in sales lowers the inventory relative to sales by 56%.

And the crucial REO inventory contuines to march toward zero.

Interesting times.
Something's got to give.

Last edited by tony soprano; 05-26-2009 at 01:53 PM..
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