[jpk]

Originally Posted by vegas_4u

.

you cry babies... boo hooo.... get with it. Olecapt seems to be the only one who knows what is really going on.... , and me too.... both Olecapt and myself, live here, and we know real estate.

No wonder most of you are clueless, you know nothing about real estate, just cry baby doom and gloomers... BOOO HOOO..... stop posting crap...

Hey, I'm the one who said right now is a total buyers market as prices fall. Give me some credit too! (And everyone else can start hating on me as well.)

I'm not a cheerleader for the real estate market right now, but I do think the four horsemen of the apocalypse haven't mounted up. If you have cojones, this is where you can make money, by picking things up for pennies on the dollar. Same thing in the stock market, there are some real bargains starting to appear (though not enough).

And to those who say Vegas tourism is going bad, I say, remember 9/11???!!! That was a disaster for Vegas. And it was only followed by the biggest real estate boom in Vegas ever. I guess if you invested in Vegas on 9/12 you were a sucker back then too?! You were the same idiots reading headlines and panicking over tomorrow. Morons!

When there is blood in the streets, buy real estate.

[vegas_4u]

Originally Posted by jpk

Hey, I'm the one who said right now is a total buyers market as prices fall. Give me some credit too! (And everyone else can start hating on me as well.)

I'm not a cheerleader for the real estate market right now, but I do think the four horsemen of the apocalypse haven't mounted up. If you have cojones, this is where you can make money, by picking things up for pennies on the dollar. Same thing in the stock market, there are some real bargains starting to appear (though not enough).

And to those who say Vegas tourism is going bad, I say, remember 9/11???!!! That was a disaster for Vegas. And it was only followed by the biggest real estate boom in Vegas ever. I guess if you invested in Vegas on 9/12 you were a sucker back then too?! You were the same idiots reading headlines and panicking over tomorrow. Morons!

When there is blood in the streets, buy real estate.

I concur - I didn't mean to exclude jpk. So now, the people who know what is happening -- myself, Olecapt, and jpk.

Agree - after 9/11, tourism tanked. And a boom followed because of Strip construction. I don't want to repeat myself, I posted three just above, but Vegas is a unique market in the USA. 3.4 million came to Vegas in February, an increase from January. Source - LV Review journal.

You can have a residential slump, and a commercial boom, co-exist. With China opening up, it is predicted astronomical tourism increases through 2020, hence the building of a new airport. Tourism fuels the Strip and commercial, which creates hundreds of thousands of new local jobs, which then eventually will dig into that huge supply of residential housing...

myself, jpk olecapt - we know what is going on... here is my famous phrase --

No economy is 100% immune to a recession, but some will do better than others. And, there is a bull market in every recession.....

[airics]

Hey wait a sec, i'm not a downer either and I have 2 houses in vegas.. i am all for this buyers market and i am sick and tired of the cry baby gloomers.. woo hoo! but i am not in the real estate profession... so can i have an itty bitty bit of credit too?

[vegas_4u]

Originally Posted by airics

Hey wait a sec, i'm not a downer either and I have 2 houses in vegas.. i am all for this buyers market and i am sick and tired of the cry baby gloomers.. woo hoo! but i am not in the real estate profession... so can i have an itty bitty bit of credit too?

Thanks airics - I also including you in the other thread, you are not one of the doom and gloomers.

We all know that the doom and gloomers don't understand one fundamential thing about Vegas - the residential slump in Vegas, which they focus on as the end of the world for the entire USA, can actually co-exist with a commercial boom, like the Las Vegas Strip. Eventually, probably starting around mid 2009 when the first mega-billion project opens in late 2009 (Project City Center), the spillover from the commercial boom will then start to trickle back into residential housing demand once again.....by way of purchases, and demand for rentals.....it's inevitable.....

[bumpercar]

As shocking as that may seem to some who read my postings here. Unlike others whose livelihood is dependent on the buying and selling of others I'm not about to spin turds in to daisys's just because I have a financial interest in things getting better.

I've been limiting my activity to houses selling below replacement cost and with full rental-income carry coverage. You know, the stuff that makes financial sense and not dependent on some realtor's absurd notion of prices in LV reaching Los Angeles levels rather than reverting to their LV mean.

Originally Posted by jpk

Hey, I'm the one who said right now is a total buyers market as prices fall. Give me some credit too! (And everyone else can start hating on me as well.)

I'm not a cheerleader for the real estate market right now, but I do think the four horsemen of the apocalypse haven't mounted up. If you have cojones, this is where you can make money, by picking things up for pennies on the dollar. Same thing in the stock market, there are some real bargains starting to appear (though not enough).

And to those who say Vegas tourism is going bad, I say, remember 9/11???!!! That was a disaster for Vegas. And it was only followed by the biggest real estate boom in Vegas ever. I guess if you invested in Vegas on 9/12 you were a sucker back then too?! You were the same idiots reading headlines and panicking over tomorrow. Morons!

When there is blood in the streets, buy real estate.

[vegas_4u]

[quote=bumpercar;3159550]

I've been limiting my activity to houses selling below replacement cost and with full rental-income carry coverage. [quote]

I believe in this - absolutely. When one invests in a property, one should evalute if the current numbers make sense. Those that buy simply to flip on speculation, can lose if they don't research, such as some of the problems you see in the burbs and even some high-rise condos that investors tried to flip. Generally, I feel that 8% ROI on a rental property is a decent return - but if you can get up to 10% or higher, that is awesome! Location is key as well. So, with smart investing, no matter what happens, hopefully, the property can always stand as a good long term rental property with decent ROI....... ride the storm....

[airics]

so how are you basing the properties that you purchase, for example, are you basing the 8% roi against the mortgage and tax payments? and are you looking at older homes also? 4+yrs old

[vegas_4u]

Originally Posted by airics

so how are you basing the properties that you purchase, for example, are you basing the 8% roi against the mortgage and tax payments? and are you looking at older homes also? 4+yrs old

What I do, and I know there are many ways to analyze numbers, but I use what I call a simple hard number analysis for a yearly ROI. I don't factor in the mortgage interest, taxes, closing costs, etc. Because that stuff is all tax deductible, and offsets some or all of taxes on the rental income, I do a simple straight analysis, which I think works well.

This analysis I do is based on actual rent - so first I analyze what the property can rent for, realistically, taking market conditions, comps, location, and property condition. Then I take [rent x 12] divided by [purchase price + remodel costs].

So let's just say, using arbitrary numbers, a $250K 3 bedroom house, which includes all the costs to ready it for rent (remodeling, etc). And the rent is $1300 a month. [1250 x 12] / 250K = 6.24%.

So, that would be mediocre investment.... let's take an older condo situation by the Strip, this is actual real numbers.

$120K 2 bedroom condo, rents for $925. [925 x 12] / 120K = 9.25%. A better investment for sure.

So, getting TWO of these condos, for $240K, and renting them for $925/month each, beats the one house at $250K at just 6% ROI. So that's what I do, and it works. Run the numbers for your rentals, depending on when you bought, I surmise you will come up around 8% or better.

I definitely look at older properties -- especially in potential urban renewal areas. The simple formula above works great when analyzing it as a potential long term rental...because it could be a long term rental. I generally, would not touch anything with under 8% ROI. Everything I have purchased, and Ive been doing this for awhile (since 2000), has been right around 9 to 11% ROI. I have one property that is my record - 14.1%... that is rare... bought that grossly below market......

[Daddys///M3]

Originally Posted by vegas_4u

Again, you mis-interpreted what I stated completely. I never stated what programs have dissapeared or are re-appearing. I said, blanket statement, getting a loan has become more difficult, which is a true statement. Last week, my broker called me and told me a guy, owner-occupied, non-investment, could not get a loan with 20% down and 720 credit score. They went through all the programs avaiable, and due to a minor technicality, he was denied. So, that was my point....

During the boom, this guy would have been able to get owner occupied with 5% down, maybe even 0% down...

So, my statement is true, it is harder to get a real estate loan now, there are more conditions, it has tightened up for investors and owner occupied....

I will concede that it is harder to get a loan now than it used to be. However, I will guarantee you that the minot technicality that kept your friend from getting a loan, most likely a judgement or a mortgage late, would have kept him from getting a loan before, regardless of credit score or money down.

FWIW, I've been here since 1993. When I first arrived I was pouring house slabs off of Rampart and Lake Mead. I'm also in the mortgage business. You can continue to act like you are the end all authority on RE in the valley, but your posts show that you do have some learning to do.

[airics]

so if i understand this correctly, i buy home 150k (ready to rent), rent it out for 900 i take 900x12/150000 = 7.2% roi - how do you feel about the north, since that is where i see a lot of lower priced nicer units (eg.. losee and centennial)