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Old 11-03-2009, 01:57 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,127,294 times
Reputation: 2661

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Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
He believes that prices have been manipulated by lenders.

Thanks Tony...could you explain that to MNBNR?

He can't seem to grasp it.

You seem to speak his language. I can't get simple enough.
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Old 11-03-2009, 02:18 PM
 
9,685 posts, read 11,093,142 times
Reputation: 8436
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Thanks Tony...could you explain that to MNBNR?

He can't seem to grasp it.

You seem to speak his language. I can't get simple enough.

Tony does speak my language; he is intelligent. Now re-read your responses and it will be tough for you to even understand what you wrote.

So those lenders are controlling the prices?? The demand is strong and the price goes down and down and down. How did those lenders pull that one off???

But wait????? I thought you said you didn't know. More specifically:

Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
The insanity is that we continue to ride through a stretch of record or near record demand with stable or falllng price. We have an insatiable demand and still prices hold. If you want to find the weird in this sceanario figure out how prices can be held stable in the face of such demand. It appears as if price, as a limiting mechanism, has been removed...maybe that is what is happening.
So you posed the question and said you didn't know why this is happening. Now I'm struggling to grasp it???

Tony. Which number did olecapt use in his play book to deny what he said earlier??? And people trust this guy's advice on Real Estate????
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Old 11-03-2009, 02:21 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,444,516 times
Reputation: 493
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Thanks Tony...could you explain that to MNBNR?

He can't seem to grasp it.

You seem to speak his language. I can't get simple enough.
Sure thing.

MNBNR, I'll explain it to you. Olecapt believes that the lenders artificially drove Vegas housing prices lower. He offers up as proof of that fact that the majority of home sales are lender owned or related. When I suggested to him that was analogous to suggesting that shareholders manipulated stock prices down during the 2000 equity bubble burst, I never heard back from him. Further, he doesn't quite understand why lenders were forced to sell prior to FASB's mark to market rule being changed.

That's it in a nutshell. Now, I didn't say that it would make any sense. I just said that I'd explain it to you.
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Old 11-03-2009, 02:32 PM
 
9,685 posts, read 11,093,142 times
Reputation: 8436
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
Sure thing.

MNBNR, I'll explain it to you. Olecapt believes that the lenders artificially drove Vegas housing prices lower. He offers up as proof of that fact that the majority of home sales are lender owned or related. When I suggested to him that was analogous to suggesting that shareholders manipulated stock prices down during the 2000 equity bubble burst, I never heard back from him. Further, he doesn't quite understand why lenders were forced to sell prior to FASB's mark to market rule being changed.

That's it in a nutshell. Now, I didn't say that it would make any sense. I just said that I'd explain it to you.

That's the stupidest theory I've heard to date. What's your take on why prices tanked, yet sales were strong????
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Old 11-03-2009, 02:46 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,444,516 times
Reputation: 493
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
That's the stupidest theory I've heard to date. What's your take on why prices tanked, yet sales were strong????
Olecapt and I debated this topic awhile back. This is/was my take -
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano
You've put the cart before the horse. Prices do not continue to fall in spite of growing sales volume, but rather sales volume grows because prices have fallen. This is how markets work.

http://www.city-data.com/forum/10564810-post1644.html
The lender manipulated market theory is the stuff of tinfoil hats.
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Old 11-03-2009, 02:56 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,127,294 times
Reputation: 2661
Sure Tony...and all sorts of RE Markets sell at 104% of list. Right sure.

Hey you geniuses should get together and invest.

That should really be funny....
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Old 11-03-2009, 03:04 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,444,516 times
Reputation: 493
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Sure Tony...and all sorts of RE Markets sell at 104% of list. Right sure.

Hey you geniuses should get together and invest.

That should really be funny....
Well, I can certainly say that I'm better off following my conclusions rather than yours. Anyone acting on your projections (random guesses, really) for the last couple of years can hardly say the same. You might be able to see a little better if you take off the tinfoil hat.
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Old 11-03-2009, 03:17 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,127,294 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
Well, I can certainly say that I'm better off following my conclusions rather than yours. Anyone acting on your projections (random guesses, really) for the last couple of years can hardly say the same. You might be able to see a little better if you take off the tinfoil hat.
Right Tony...another of your well though out opinions.

Let's hear it. October up? Down? same? Volume?

With your keen insights that should be a piece of cake.
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Old 11-03-2009, 03:45 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,444,516 times
Reputation: 493
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Right Tony...another of your well though out opinions.
No opinion, a demonstrated fact. I, and probably a significant population of this board, are better off for formulating and acting on their own conclusions, rather than your random projections.
Quote:

Let's hear it. October up? Down? same? Volume?

With your keen insights that should be a piece of cake.
If I said back in June that I expected a prolonged and muted housing recovery, with little inflation adjusted price appreciation, what difference does it make what happens in October?

I'm hopeful for you that after proclaiming a month-over-month price increase for May, that you finally break even in October.

Last edited by tony soprano; 11-03-2009 at 04:03 PM..
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Old 11-03-2009, 04:33 PM
 
9,685 posts, read 11,093,142 times
Reputation: 8436
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
Olecapt and I debated this topic awhile back. This is/was my take - The lender manipulated market theory is the stuff of tinfoil hats.

I clicked on the link. You wrote:

"You've put the cart before the horse. Prices do not continue to fall in spite of growing sales volume, but rather sales volume grows because prices have fallen. This is how markets work."

Bingo! Pretty simple but our RE expert is blaming it on lenders.

To expand it a touch, as (over priced) markets fall, there becomes a tripping point where people pick up assumed "deals" all the way down. Each new lower price picks up more interested buyers. Sales are strong as everyone thinks they hit the "new" bottom. OR, home owners can finally afford that home home of their dreams for the 1st time. As it falls, bubble watchers call it "knife catching".

It seems that we have reached an equilibrium on a portion of the lower priced market because prices are edging upwards. The problem is that equilibrium has been enhanced by $8K credits and lower than typical market interest rates. This is an artificial bottom. There are a plethora of inventory not released by lenders (backlog and other reasons). Worse yet, Vegas is set for increased unemployment. THIS is why economists are still calling for prices to fall.

Tony; as youidentified it earlier, it's incredibly basic. It's not the damn lenders. It seems our RE expert was embarrassed to give his view point or (as his posts that I have copied 3 times now shows) he didn't understand why! That usually happens when you fail as an RE investor as many agents have gone bankrupt. Of course he has been saying buy-buy-buy even back in 2006. He probably bought bought bought.
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