[olecapt]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

Sigh....MNBNR posts actual numbers of people behind on payments.

Olecapt posts a article that cites amoung other things, real estate sources, who indicate the forclosure level is flat and not likely to be as many as was forecast.

Of course that article totally ignores what MNBNR posted. Which of course, so do you Olecapt as you have said many times that the number of NOD can simply be ignored as meaningless.

I got this correct? Yes yes?

YOu have not figured it out yet? The NOD numbers are meaningless and have been right along. The system is at a stable state handling around 3000 foreclosures a month. That is what it can handle and that is what is occuring. The foreclosure are down month over month and year over year. The banked owned inventory is down year over year.

It may continue for months or years. But it is stable for the forseeable future where it is.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

RJ yesterday...

REAL ESTATE: Las Vegas home prices stabilize as threat of foreclosure flood wanes - Business - ReviewJournal.com

Ole MNBNR. Always a day late and a dollar short...

Coming from someone that's on the record for calling the bottom since at least April 2008, I find that rather...well, humorous.

[RCCCB]

There is so much government manipulation that you can't ever know for certain where the bottom, forclosures or anything else really is at. Then there is that "Future Value" Enron trick the banks are using.
It's all screwed up IMO.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

From U.S. Foreclosures Drop For Third Straight Month : NPR (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120342109 - broken link)

"New state programs, like one launched in Nevada in July, that require mediation before banks can seize a property have helped stem foreclosure activity, said Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac.
Also, anecdotally, lenders are delaying foreclosure as they evaluate which borrowers might qualify for the federal loan modification program, he said.
"That's the reason there's been a buildup of homes that are seriously delinquent but not foreclosed," he said."
__________________________________________________ _____


But I must caution people... RealtyTrac might be motivated to keep the foreclosure bandwagon going.

As another example of questionable motivation, see Analysts exaggerating foreclosure projections, broker says - Las Vegas Sun

This guy who is quoted seems to be putting a spin on things as well. Maybe he might want people to think that things are stabilizing (the opposite motivation of RealyTrac). Your thoughts?????



Ole.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Coming from someone that's on the record for calling the bottom since at least April 2008, I find that rather...well, humorous.

I called the bottom once...clearly and correctly...earlier this year.

I was clear and explicit.

That is how I would make such a call. Find another.

And you can't take that bottom call out of context either can you? Hate that don't you Tony?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

From U.S. Foreclosures Drop For Third Straight Month : NPR (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120342109 - broken link)

"New state programs, like one launched in Nevada in July, that require mediation before banks can seize a property have helped stem foreclosure activity, said Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac.
Also, anecdotally, lenders are delaying foreclosure as they evaluate which borrowers might qualify for the federal loan modification program, he said.
"That's the reason there's been a buildup of homes that are seriously delinquent but not foreclosed," he said."
__________________________________________________ _____


But I must caution people... RealtyTrac might be motivated to keep the foreclosure bandwagon going.

As another example of questionable motivation, see Analysts exaggerating foreclosure projections, broker says - Las Vegas Sun

This guy who is quoted seems to be putting a spin on things as well. Maybe he might want people to think that things are stabilizing (the opposite motivation of RealyTrac). Your thoughts?????



Ole.

Note that the observations made in June are now generally being accepted. And were right on...so let's not talk about "spin" when it is actually correct.

Why in the heck would I care if it stablilizes or goes down some more? Hell volume increase could more than compensate for value lost if there was a whole mess of new foreclosures to hit the market. I would think it healthy for the economy if we begin climbling out...but that is a global sentiment...up there with world peace.

I actually agree the mediation thing is having an effect. I am not sure we even see it yet. There was a large pipeline of foreclosures before the mediation stuff hits. Maybe now or in the next couple of months. But it is not a huge one and will iron out over this and next quarter. We still however will process the same magnitude of foreclosures.

If the mediation does anything it will likely further lower the REO inventory and drive REO prices up a bit.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

I called the bottom once...clearly and correctly...earlier this year.

I was clear and explicit.

That is how I would make such a call. Find another.

And you can't take that bottom call out of context either can you? Hate that don't you Tony?

You're always lamenting how your comments were taken out of context, yet you've never been able to explain in what possible context there wasn't a Vegas housing bubble in 2006. The best you could manage was "it was a different bubble with different people". That's hilarious.

MNBNR, quoted another post of yours from another board where you explicitly called the bottom in April, 2008. Let me guess - it was a different bottom, with different people.

You're on the record as saying there was a significant probability that there be a 10% YoY increase in housing prices in Dec. '08. That must have been a different 10% with different people.

In early 2008 when someone suggested that the economy was slowing and that Vegas housing would not be spared, you chimed that RE was local and there was a low probability for recession. Obviously, Vegas must be in a different recession with different people.

You throw out enough predictions, sooner or later you get one right. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Note that the observations made in June are now generally being accepted. And were right on...so let's not talk about "spin" when it is actually correct.

Why in the heck would I care if it stablilizes or goes down some more? Hell volume increase could more than compensate for value lost if there was a whole mess of new foreclosures to hit the market. I would think it healthy for the economy if we begin climbling out...but that is a global sentiment...up there with world peace.

I actually agree the mediation thing is having an effect. I am not sure we even see it yet. There was a large pipeline of foreclosures before the mediation stuff hits. Maybe now or in the next couple of months. But it is not a huge one and will iron out over this and next quarter. We still however will process the same magnitude of foreclosures.

If the mediation does anything it will likely further lower the REO inventory and drive REO prices up a bit.

You talk as though the 3000 foreclosure number is some sort of cap.

Why would a Realtor care if prices go up versus down??? I guess the answer is related as to why NAR continues to say it's a great time to buy and highlight any data when there is a supposed turn around???

• Good news brings out buyers (not just watchers).
• Increases in price creates a sense of urgency.
• It takes the same amount of time and energy to sell and close a $450K home as a $70K home. If people assume the $300K-$1M homes have more to fall, they won't buy those which is where the money is.
• A lot of pending sales are snagged with financing issues (non-stable market). Most agents spend a chunk of there day freeing up financing issues because the market is volatile and banks use conservative comps.
• If a person is in the market for a home and assumes there is a lot of phantom inventory and delayed foreclosures coming because of mediation then the will wait. HAMP has proved to work 30% of the time. RealityTrac predicts a spike for Vegas.

Increased sales is one thing. But attracting buyers over the 100's of Realtors in Vegas is another. If an agent convinces someone he has the pulse on the market, they add credibility in the naive buyers mind. Hence, they desperately want to be the "expert". Those "experts" might have a blog and post some pretty charts so they can show how much they know and why "now is a great time to buy". Why else would that Realtor post those pretty charts??? It's the reason why Realtor's hang out on City-data. It's all part of the sell to attract that buyer who is looking.

I could go on for a few more paragraphs. You probably don't want to ask me any more questions.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

You talk as though the 3000 foreclosure number is some sort of cap.

Why would a Realtor care if prices go up versus down??? I guess the answer is related as to why NAR continues to say it's a great time to buy and highlight any data when there is a supposed turn around???

• Good news brings out buyers (not just watchers).
• Increases in price creates a sense of urgency.
• It takes the same amount of time and energy to sell and close a $450K home as a $70K home. If people assume the $300K-$1M homes have more to fall, they won't buy those which is where the money is.
• A lot of pending sales are snagged with financing issues (non-stable market). Most agents spend a chunk of there day freeing up financing issues because the market is volatile and banks use conservative comps.
• If a person is in the market for a home and assumes there is a lot of phantom inventory and delayed foreclosures coming because of mediation then the will wait. HAMP has proved to work 30% of the time. RealityTrac predicts a spike for Vegas.

Increased sales is one thing. But attracting buyers over the 100's of Realtors in Vegas is another. If an agent convinces someone he has the pulse on the market, they add credibility in the naive buyers mind. Hence, they desperately want to be the "expert". Those "experts" might have a blog and post some pretty charts so they can show how much they know and why "now is a great time to buy". Why else would that Realtor post those pretty charts??? It's the reason why Realtor's hang out on City-data. It's all part of the sell to attract that buyer who is looking.

I could go on for a few more paragraphs. You probably don't want to ask me any more questions.

Why waste the bytes. Nonsense is nonsense. YOu have no idea how it actually works. It is far easier in this market and many others to sell four 100K homes than one 400k home. It is always easier to list and sell three 200K homes than one 500K home. You simply don't understand the business.

Try something you know something about...

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

You're always lamenting how your comments were taken out of context, yet you've never been able to explain in what possible context there wasn't a Vegas housing bubble in 2006. The best you could manage was "it was a different bubble with different people". That's hilarious.

MNBNR, quoted another post of yours from another board where you explicitly called the bottom in April, 2008. Let me guess - it was a different bottom, with different people.

You're on the record as saying there was a significant probability that there be a 10% YoY increase in housing prices in Dec. '08. That must have been a different 10% with different people.

In early 2008 when someone suggested that the economy was slowing and that Vegas housing would not be spared, you chimed that RE was local and there was a low probability for recession. Obviously, Vegas must be in a different recession with different people.

You throw out enough predictions, sooner or later you get one right. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you.

I called a botton very gingerly but very clearly this spring. YOu can go back and see how it was done. Just produce the similar assertions from the other periods.

Taking singular comments out of context is your stock in trade. That is because you have nothing else.