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Old 04-24-2012, 03:12 AM
 
2,724 posts, read 4,756,824 times
Reputation: 1042

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jerseyru View Post
That sounds about right. I just rented my 3 brm house in 89131 for $1375; it took less than a week to get a renter.
3 Bdrm 89131 $1,000/mo.

MLS # 1235466 - 7900 Olympus Av, Las Vegas NV, 89131 | Homes.com

3 Bdrm 89131 $900/mo.

MLS # 1207827 - 7325 Misty Glow Ct, Las Vegas NV, 89131 | Homes.com

3 Bdrm 89131 $975/mo.

MLS # 1223449 - 4921 Apache Valley Av, Las Vegas NV, 89131 | Homes.com

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Old 04-24-2012, 03:32 AM
 
62 posts, read 142,793 times
Reputation: 16

I don't know what to tell you. I guess I got lucky. I turned it over to the PM, he suggested $1395 and I had a renter in less than a week. And this was last month. I had PM offer them a 2 year lease for $1375 and deal was done. Unless something has changed drastically in the last month, I don't know about those numbers.
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Old 04-24-2012, 08:19 AM
 
Location: ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) (╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻ ̡
7,112 posts, read 13,134,711 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArmyFool View Post
Really??? I live in Centennial Hills zip 89143. A 3 bedroom house in our area starts at $850. $1475 sounds a little too much for me for Vegas.
Yep. 4 bed 3 bath. A little over 2000 sqft. Built in 2007. The avarage rental price in my area is $1200+. There is nothing smaller than a 4 bedroom. They are all 4-5 bedrooms, a couple are 5 bedrooms with a full size loft. Some had the loft converted to a 6th bedroom.
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Old 04-24-2012, 08:44 AM
 
Location: Green Valley
383 posts, read 899,288 times
Reputation: 301
Quote:
Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister View Post
If you scammed the system by crying like a baby to the banks that you cannot afford your mortgage and then immediately turn around and cry that you can afford a "new" mortgage then you just socialized your debt and screwed your neighbor. Rationalize it all you want, you're a scumbag.
I guess people don't have a right to complain about big corporations doing it and when then go and do it themselves.
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Old 04-24-2012, 03:42 PM
 
322 posts, read 564,529 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LVPoker1 View Post
I bought 18 months ago in 89135. According to Zillow, and the resales around me, I am stuck about 6% on paper. The fees to buy the house were about 3% including the mortgage junk fees, so that is 9% of the value, or about $20,000. If I rented, I would have tossed away just over $30,000 total. Instead, I have knocked about $14,000 off of the debt, which is equal to the actual theo loss. I also can deduct the interest off of the mortgage.
I don't follow your math. By purchasing 18 months ago, you admit being down $20k to date in depreciated market value, plus you've probably paid thousands in mortgage interest expense since purchase (you don't give mortgage amount and interest rate, but have indicated it's over a $220k house, so the interest factor for 1.5 yrs is probably into 5 figures, but at least several thousand in any event), plus property taxes, plus homeowner's insurance (I'm assuming it's insured), plus repairs, and plus I'd guess likely thousands more in HOA dues. And you think you're a lot better off dollars and cents wise for this period compared to alternatively having "tossed away" $30k in rent? Of course hindsight is always 20/20 and I'm not trying to be critical of your decision making at the time (I actually think you made a good bet, but it simply was a good bet that happened to lose in this particular case), but it appears clear in retrospect you would have a higher net worth today if you had been renting for the past 18 months and bought in today's market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LVPoker1 View Post
The mortgage on my 15 year is $200-$300 less than what it rents for, so at the very least I have saved $5000 by buying, but in reality I saved about $10,000. That is in just 18 months.
Huh? I actually saved $xxx but really saved twice as much???

Quote:
Originally Posted by LVPoker1 View Post
It sounds like you are bitter about who knows what, but anyone that is going to be here for 2+ years and rents is going to lose that bet because the rents are substantially higher than a mortgage payment would be, and it will only take 1-2 years to get out from under the closing costs as opposed to renting. This formula will continue to work as long as the house is not losing 15%+ a year. Maybe you think it will, but if rents stay the same that is impossible.
I agree you were responding to a bitter 1 worthless post poster. But the point here is you don't know with certainty that "anyone that is going to be here for 2+ years and rents is going to lose that bet". You later confirm this uncertainty by adding conditional disclaimers (if the house doesn't lose 15%/yr and if rents stay the same). I'd would argue with your 15% number being way off, but will save that for another time. The point is you don't know with certainty market values won't drop further and you don't know that rents will remain the same. You have made a 15 yr mortgage commitment, but you can't predict the market value and rent value with certainty very far out. You also failed to account for the additional vig (sales costs) one incurs to get his money back out of the house that a renter doesn't incur when he vacates the house. You are taking a calculated risk by buying that may or may not pan out.

We have been listening to various bottom callers for the last 3 years saying how it can't go lower, but it has. In 2004-05 or so, many said kept saying we were over priced and peaking, but prices continued to climb for additional years. Over the years, whether dealing with real estate, stocks, commodities, or interest rates, etc, many times I've seen continued movement long after consensus seemed to be "we can't go any lower (or higher)". People are certainly entitled to their opinions that prices can't go lower, but they can't say that with certainty, and history has proven them to often be wrong.

As I mentioned before, I do think it is a good time to buy like you and many others. I think buying now is a good bet in many cases, but I'm not naive enough to think it's a sure bet, or that it's a good bet regardless of one's individual situation.
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:48 PM
 
46 posts, read 74,356 times
Reputation: 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by LV2ndHome View Post
I don't follow your math. By purchasing 18 months ago, you admit being down $20k to date in depreciated market value, plus you've probably paid thousands in mortgage interest expense since purchase (you don't give mortgage amount and interest rate, but have indicated it's over a $220k house, so the interest factor for 1.5 yrs is probably into 5 figures, but at least several thousand in any event), plus property taxes, plus homeowner's insurance (I'm assuming it's insured), plus repairs, and plus I'd guess likely thousands more in HOA dues. And you think you're a lot better off dollars and cents wise for this period compared to alternatively having "tossed away" $30k in rent? Of course hindsight is always 20/20 and I'm not trying to be critical of your decision making at the time (I actually think you made a good bet, but it simply was a good bet that happened to lose in this particular case), but it appears clear in retrospect you would have a higher net worth today if you had been renting for the past 18 months and bought in today's market.



Huh? I actually saved $xxx but really saved twice as much???



I agree you were responding to a bitter 1 worthless post poster. But the point here is you don't know with certainty that "anyone that is going to be here for 2+ years and rents is going to lose that bet". You later confirm this uncertainty by adding conditional disclaimers (if the house doesn't lose 15%/yr and if rents stay the same). I'd would argue with your 15% number being way off, but will save that for another time. The point is you don't know with certainty market values won't drop further and you don't know that rents will remain the same. You have made a 15 yr mortgage commitment, but you can't predict the market value and rent value with certainty very far out. You also failed to account for the additional vig (sales costs) one incurs to get his money back out of the house that a renter doesn't incur when he vacates the house. You are taking a calculated risk by buying that may or may not pan out.

We have been listening to various bottom callers for the last 3 years saying how it can't go lower, but it has. In 2004-05 or so, many said kept saying we were over priced and peaking, but prices continued to climb for additional years. Over the years, whether dealing with real estate, stocks, commodities, or interest rates, etc, many times I've seen continued movement long after consensus seemed to be "we can't go any lower (or higher)". People are certainly entitled to their opinions that prices can't go lower, but they can't say that with certainty, and history has proven them to often be wrong.

As I mentioned before, I do think it is a good time to buy like you and many others. I think buying now is a good bet in many cases, but I'm not naive enough to think it's a sure bet, or that it's a good bet regardless of one's individual situation.
Agreed. It is depends on the individual. I on the other hand, say that Vegas is not the place to buy. Vegas tenants operate at a cruel level. They usually don't pay on time. When the lease is up, they trash your place and demand their deposit back. Another item that everyone is aware of is that Vegas is overbuilt. We have tons of empty homes EVERYWHERE. Funny thing is that builders are still building new homes. When is it going to stop? Finally, the employment potential here in Las Vegas looks dismal with a high umemployment rate. The truth is that you cannot expect much here since our city depends 100% on tourism. My only hope is that the world recovers so these people with $$$$ come here to stimulate our world.
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Old 04-24-2012, 07:10 PM
 
2,724 posts, read 4,756,824 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArmyFool View Post
Agreed. It is depends on the individual. I on the other hand, say that Vegas is not the place to buy. Vegas tenants operate at a cruel level. They usually don't pay on time. When the lease is up, they trash your place and demand their deposit back. Another item that everyone is aware of is that Vegas is overbuilt. We have tons of empty homes EVERYWHERE. Funny thing is that builders are still building new homes. When is it going to stop? Finally, the employment potential here in Las Vegas looks dismal with a high umemployment rate. The truth is that you cannot expect much here since our city depends 100% on tourism. My only hope is that the world recovers so these people with $$$$ come here to stimulate our world.
Consumers drive over two-thirds of the U.S. GDP and GDP has only increased a very minute amount since 2008. Perhaps you should hope for something a little more tangible... like world peace.
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Old 04-24-2012, 07:15 PM
 
Location: Sunrise
10,865 posts, read 16,960,118 times
Reputation: 9084
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArmyFool View Post
The truth is that you cannot expect much here since our city depends 100% on tourism. My only hope is that the world recovers so these people with $$$$ come here to stimulate our world.

Things are improving. Fine dining is slightly up. And that's the last thing to recover. Gamblers will p*** their money away on the tables and machines, then feed themselves from the dollar menu if they have to when times are bad. Right now, the gamblers are p***ing away their money AND going to Carnevino and dropping $200 on a steak. So, things are looking up. Caesar's is building their Linq thing, the Ferris Wheel is being built across from Mandalay. As the construction workers return, they'll spend all their paychecks just like before, and we'll start to rebound.

At the risk of sounding like Capt. Bottomfinder, I think the worst is behind us. Even with the inventory shenanigans being played by the banks, I think we'll see (very) slow growth all this year. We can have fun pulling up this post in December and seeing how my crystal ball compares to others in use here.
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Old 04-24-2012, 07:18 PM
 
579 posts, read 995,232 times
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My mortgage on a 15 yr after putting 20% down is $1400 including insurance and taxes. Interest rates are down almost 1% from when I bought too, so it would be even less to buy. The identical houses, which are almost certain to be of lower quality because mine has a lot of extras from a recent upgrade, rent for $1600-$1700.

Over $700 of my payment goes to the principle, meaning I pay off about $10,000 a year right now. The loss of the value of the house is about half that in the past year. I also get about a $6500 mortgage interest deduction, and since I have other deductions, I can claim it. That saves me about one full mortgage payment in taxes. Deducting the property taxes saves another $500 in taxes.

Had I rented the same house for $1650, I would have paid $29,700 in rent in 18 months, and would not have $3000 in tax credits over 18 months for my $6500/yr in interest and $2000 a year in property taxes.

If the home loses 15% a year, the actual loss gets smaller and smaller as the value of the house lowers. I came up with that number, which is probably more like 12%, because I am paying off more and more of the principle as the mortgage matures by several thousands of dollars a year. I am also saving $5000 a year by not renting between tax benefits and higher rent. This means between paying off the principle and the tax savings, I am theoretically saving $16k-$18k over paying rent with equity and tax savings, assuming the house goes sideways which it has for essentially the last 9 months. It would have to go down nearly double digit % for me to lose, and that number will get bigger as I get deeper into the mortgage and pay off more of it annually.

Looking at this from the 30 year loan standpoint makes it even better. A 30 year mortgage payment is about half of what rent is right now, but they will obviously not pay off the loan as fast.

Quote:
I don't follow your math. By purchasing 18 months ago, you admit being down $20k to date in depreciated market value, plus you've probably paid thousands in mortgage interest expense since purchase (you don't give mortgage amount and interest rate, but have indicated it's over a $220k house, so the interest factor for 1.5 yrs is probably into 5 figures, but at least several thousand in any event), plus property taxes, plus homeowner's insurance (I'm assuming it's insured), plus repairs, and plus I'd guess likely thousands more in HOA dues.
This makes no sense at all. Do you really not think you are paying these things when you rent? Everything except repairs are cleverly disguised in your rent, or are comparable. Since 100% of the rent is lost, and interest is deductible, including it in here makes even less sense. You do not get to deduct the interest or property taxes your landlord pays. You also have the added expense of renter's insurance, in addition to all of the costs included in rent that covers the landlord's insurance. My homeowner's insurance is $350 a year. I would imagine an investor would be paying much more and passing that on in the rent.

A 30 year mortgage payment is about half of what rent is right now. I stand behind my statement that anyone that is here for any middle term residency is making a mistake by continuing to rent. Even if the market continues its slow drop, their mortgage payment will still be half of what it is to rent the comparable home. Even if rents come down, that gap is not going to completely close.

Maybe you think the market is going to drop 25% a year and that the city is a few years away from being a ghost town. I don't share that opinion, but you have every right to have it.

Last edited by LVPoker1; 04-24-2012 at 07:41 PM..
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Old 04-24-2012, 08:25 PM
 
2,724 posts, read 4,756,824 times
Reputation: 1042
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScoopLV View Post
Things are improving. Fine dining is slightly up. And that's the last thing to recover. Gamblers will p*** their money away on the tables and machines, then feed themselves from the dollar menu if they have to when times are bad. Right now, the gamblers are p***ing away their money AND going to Carnevino and dropping $200 on a steak. So, things are looking up. Caesar's is building their Linq thing, the Ferris Wheel is being built across from Mandalay. As the construction workers return, they'll spend all their paychecks just like before, and we'll start to rebound.

At the risk of sounding like Capt. Bottomfinder, I think the worst is behind us. Even with the inventory shenanigans being played by the banks, I think we'll see (very) slow growth all this year. We can have fun pulling up this post in December and seeing how my crystal ball compares to others in use here.
$200 steaks notwithstanding...

The ratio between home equity and disposable personal income is far below levels ever seen since recording began in 1950. This has severely weakened household spending, esp. the middle-income group because home equity is a larger share of their aggregate wealth. Those of the upper-income levels who dine on the aforementioned $200 slab of dead animal flesh are the minority.
12-million underwater mortgages, that's 1 in 5. Negative equity is a HUGE problem! If a financial difficulty arises for a homeowner he has very few options. This looms large as the economy continues to sputter.

Something else everyone conveniently overlooks when they speak about a housing recovery is the banks reluctance to lend. Borrowers well within GSE purchase parameters (620 FICO/10% down) are being denied loans because the lenders fear the loan repurchase requirement if the borrower defaults. They didn't seem to mind when the taxpayer shouldered the burden but now it's their liability and that has stifled borrowing. First-time buyers are typically the foundation of the housing market and there has been a dramatic drop off in that segment of buyers. All these factors weigh heavily and suggest a decline in borrowing.

Lest I mention, high unemployment, weak-to-non-existent (real) wage income growth, uncertainty about prospects for the economy and labor market.

The near term pressure on home prices is huge, forget about historical norms, they no longer apply, this is uncharted territory.
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