[Onlyliveonce]

Originally Posted by bayview6

Sometime the truth hurts.

Truth ? It is nothing more than unsolicited opinion. If it were the truth ( which it is NOT ) why would anyone want to call out and insult a bunch of homeowners ?

[von949]

Originally Posted by TomKBL

Admit it or not, it was a life-time opportunity in 2011-2012 for Las Vegas real estate market.

Yup


Sent from watch

[djslakor]

It's the same idea as having a different religion from someone else and disagreeing. People get very defensive over their emotional investments. A home is typically the biggest purchase of one's life, and is of course a huge emotional investment.

Regarding "unsolicited opinion", this is a public forum (which is obviously dominated by housing bulls). No one thought the original crash would happen, either. I'm not trader-joe level bearish, I just consider another downturn as a possibility and ask myself if dropping 190 grand on a property here is really that awesome of a deal given our unemployment levels, crime, quality of build, quality of neighbors, etc. as many other parts of the country seem to offer a better all around deal. Of course, this is subjective! When these "homes" were in the 90-120k range, it seemed like a much more favorable purchase since, if you're here, you need to live somewhere, and in my opinion, that price range seemed more digestable for the quality of the homes. 200k, though, is ridiculous.

Folks wouldn't get so defensive if they were so sure of their purchase. Only time will tell, but the bulls who bought in at the right time shouldn't be so arrogant about it. Time may humble you.

“…Although only a few observers have noted the vested interest in error that accompanies speculative euphoria, it is, nonetheless, an extremely plausible phenomenon. Those involved with the speculation are experiencing an increase in wealth–getting rich or being further enriched. No one wishes to believe that this is fortuitous or undeserved; all wish to think that it is the result of their own superior insight or intuition. The very increase in values thus captures the thoughts and minds of those being rewarded. Speculation buys up, in a very practical way, the intelligence of those involved.

This is particularly true of the first group noted above–those who are convinced that values are going up permanently and indefinitely. But the errors of vanity of those who think they will beat the speculative game are also thus reinforced. As long as they are in, they have a strong pecuniary commitment to belief in the unique personal intelligence that tells them there will be yet more. ..Strongly reinforcing the vested interest in euphoria is the condemnation that the reputable public and financial opinion directs at those who express doubt or dissent. It is said that they are unable, because of defective imagination or other mental inadequacy, to grasp the new and rewarding circumstances that sustain and secure the increase in values…”

-John Kenneth Galbraith

A Short History of Financial Euphoria

... sounds about right.

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by djslakor

It's the same idea as having a different religion from someone else and disagreeing. People get very defensive over their emotional investments. A home is typically the biggest purchase of one's life, and is of course a huge emotional investment.

Regarding "unsolicited opinion", this is a public forum (which is obviously dominated by housing bulls). No one thought the original crash would happen, either. I'm not trader-joe level bearish, I just consider another downturn as a possibility and ask myself if dropping 190 grand on a property here is really that awesome of a deal given our unemployment levels, crime, quality of build, quality of neighbors, etc. as many other parts of the country seem to offer a better all around deal. Of course, this is subjective! When these "homes" were in the 90-120k range, it seemed like a much more favorable purchase since, if you're here, you need to live somewhere, and in my opinion, that price range seemed more digestable for the quality of the homes. 200k, though, is ridiculous.

Folks wouldn't get so defensive if they were so sure of their purchase. Only time will tell, but the bulls who bought in at the right time shouldn't be so arrogant about it. Time may humble you.

Actually I think you got this wrong. It is not that anyone knows that we are going to see upward migration of price large or small. It is that there was a substantial artificial low created by the banks for reasons known only to them. They drove price to irrationally low levels by the pricing of foreclosures and shorts. This led to a period of unusual opportunity to acquire homes at prices well below a rational market.

So based on the historical Las Vegas market metrics you have little possibility of acquiring a home at the price level available in 2011. And from the historical view present pricing is still low...though no place near as low as it used to be.

In a slowly recovering economy it is unlikely you will do better than now...but who knows. The banks could go berserk again and blow another billion or so.

[Everdeen]

Plenty of people predicted the housing crash.

ask myself if dropping 190 grand on a property here is really that awesome of a deal given our unemployment levels, crime, quality of build, quality of neighbors, etc. as many other parts of the country seem to offer a better all around deal.

If this is how you feel, why are you here? Why don't you go to another part of the country where you can get a better all around deal?

Folks wouldn't get so defensive if they were so sure of their purchase.

It's like family. If you have a brother that is a PITA and you complain about it, that's one thing. But when someone who is unconnected with your family start knocking your brother, you let them have it.

[mod cut, rude]

[djslakor]

lvoc,

You describe the low as "artificial", created by the banks. Do you think the past year's 30%+ appreciation was due to a healthy, sustainable, "normal" market? Your opinion, which I respect, is that we overshot the mark. It seems to me, however, that the rebound was driven largely by foreign investors, QE, insanely low interest rates, and the restriction of supply. Is that not "artificial" as well? Will those things last? What happens if (or most likely when) that rug gets pulled out? Will prices simply sit still, or is it a reasonable possibility that they just might fall again? Is the macroeconomic environment the same as it was during the last run up? (I seem to recall many folks moving here for trade jobs such as construction). Does NV still have the highest unemployment rate in the nation? etc. etc.

I think it's prudent to ask these kinds of questions.

I'm happy for anyone who profited (assuming they sell to realize the profit). I do however think another downturn is a very reasonable POSSIBILITY given this abnormal market. I am merely appreciating the reasonable possibility, I'm not wishing loss on anyone.

Regarding my "negative" opinion, it is simply that, my opinion. Others considering moving here should hear all sides of thought, not just what the "bulls4eva brothers" have to say.

[Everdeen]

You postulated that the reason for the lashback is that others are unsure of their purchase. That's not it at all. There are people on this forum who can respectfully disagree. You are not one of them.

[personal, off topic]

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by djslakor

lvoc,

You describe the low as "artificial", created by the banks. Do you think the past year's 30%+ appreciation was due to a healthy, sustainable, "normal" market? Your opinion, which I respect, is that we overshot the mark. It seems to me, however, that the rebound was driven largely by foreign investors, QE, insanely low interest rates, and the restriction of supply. Is that not "artificial" as well? Will those things last? What happens if (or most likely when) that rug gets pulled out? Will prices simply sit still, or is it a reasonable possibility that they just might fall again? Is the macroeconomic environment the same as it was during the last run up? (I seem to recall many folks moving here for trade jobs such as construction). Does NV still have the highest unemployment rate in the nation? etc. etc.

Well first off Las Vegas was never anywhere near worst in the nation. That was Nevada. And that is mostly the statistical fluke you have to be careful of when dealing with LV. There is no other state driven by a single city to the degree that Nevada is. If you really want to check out LV consider it against the Inland Empire in CA. It did better...and much better than other inland CA areas.

Of course the recovery was not "natural"...how can one be natural while recovering from an absolutely artificial state.

The recovery was not particularly driven by investors, foreigners etc. It is true that cash dominated...but that is because the system gives cash privilege. If appraisals were required to reflect the value to an investor rather than an owner occupant it would have been different and probably gone up faster and higher.

I think it's prudent to ask these kinds of questions.

Sure...just make sure you hear the answers.

I'm happy for anyone who profited (assuming they sell to realize the profit). I do however think another downturn is a very reasonable POSSIBILITY given this abnormal market. I am merely appreciating the reasonable possibility, I'm not wishing loss on anyone.

"Profit' Exists whether it is realized or not. It can turn to a loss as well. But realization is not a factor.

Regarding my "negative" opinion, it is simply that, my opinion. Others considering moving here should hear all sides of thought, not just what the "bulls4eva brothers" have to say.

Yup. You have a right to your opinion. And if you opine the world is flat you can expect some grief..

I have no objections to the world is flat as an opinion. But I am not going to agree it is a real theory that should be considered seriously.

[Luke9686]

"This time it's different!" Famous words right before EVERY bubble bursts.

[airics]

Got news for you....some reps are automatic as you post.. it isn't anyone repping you