[djslakor]

A buddy I went to business school with went through foreclosure (he bought at the peak, unfortunately). The investment company which purchased his home has been trying to get it rented for almost 6 months now after repeated price reductions. If landlords have enough trouble in aggregate, they may seek alternative investments if they decide the hassle isn't worth it.

Investors buy homes on the hopes of a return. If other financial markets pick up, especially given liquidity advantages of many markets, investors will drop these "investments" like hot potatoes to shift their principals into the better/easier ROI much more quickly than the first foreclosure wave. That is common sense. All you have to do is pay basic attention to the news to see landlords lives aren't particularly roses these days and finding good tenants is not always so easy.

This isn't doom and gloom, it's applying an ounce of common sense. May never happen. It's certainly possible, though.

If this run up occurred during a normal interest rate period with no Fed intervention, driven primarily by increasing employment, increasing wages, and increasing first time home buyers, there would be no question this rebound is healthy and sustainable.

I would have to say that isn't what we're seeing today. It's myopic to assume we're off to the races and all is well.

Time will tell. If you bought in 2011-2012, though, I can't imagine that you'd suffer any major loss that a big sigh and "eh, oh well" wouldn't handle. Exercise caution purchasing today, though.

[airics]

Intesting..I purchased a rental property at the boom... except for 3 months and an eviction that took a month, its been rented for more than the mortgage. So the value went down, big deal... except for the down payment..the tenants are buying me a house..

[observer53]

Thread reopened. You are all free to disagree, but you need to do so without being disagreeable or getting into personal comments. You don't have to agree, or like one another, you do have to follow the rules. Continuing down that road will result in further infractions.


And, since it came up here:

Originally Posted by airics

Got news for you....some reps are automatic as you post.. it isn't anyone repping you

There is no such thing as "automatic reps'" as you post. They all happen by people clicking one of two buttons.

Back to topic.

[Croce]

Here's an interesting read that only confirms what we are experiencing in Las Vegas housing:

Bubbles Bloom Anew in Desert as Buyers Wager on Las Vegas - Bloomberg

[von949]

There are owners that can't find tenants for their properties and there are owners that have an ever ending supply of tenants. What doe this mean?


Sent from watch

[bayview6]

Originally Posted by Croce

Here's an interesting read that only confirms what we are experiencing in Las Vegas housing:

Bubbles Bloom Anew in Desert as Buyers Wager on Las Vegas - Bloomberg

I think that article is not very good because it reasons from one or two transactions and does not recognized that the Great Las Vegas Housing Bubble of 2002 to 2008 was caused by (1) appraisers not doing their job, (2) mortgage brokers giving mortgages to anybody who could fog a mirror and claim a certain amount of income, and (3) mania/greed among home owners who used their home equity as a piggybank based on insane home valuations.

Done of those factors are at play today. The current Vegas housing market is experiencing a bounce back from the depression level pricing of 2010 to 2012 and is not in a bubble mode.

[bayview6]

Originally Posted by djslakor

Bayview6, I fully agree with you.

I've never once stated, ever, that those who bought in 2011-2012 made a poor decision based on today's data. If they sell now, they made a great choice most assuredly! That's the only thing we know for sure, today. I'm merely stating the ostensibly absurd opinion that the recent run up may not be built on solid fundamentals and _may_ suffer a downturn in the future. I'm not wishing it on anyone, I'm stating it as a reasonable possibility.

We saw an uptick followed by a downturn surrounding the home buyer tax credit. Was it absurd to suggest that upswing might not last either?

This isn't doom and gloom pontification, it's prudent analysis of possible outcomes. There could be another 20% appreciation in the pipe, who knows?

For those considering moving to Vegas today, young kids who may be getting ready to sign up for the biggest debt of their life, etc, ... it is worthwhile to consider the macroeconomic environment and the "absurd" possibility that a 36% appreciation in 1 year _might_ not last. That the pipeline of foreclosures _might_ open up one day. That investors _might_ want to chase higher yield in other instruments and need their principal back. That the fed _might_ stop purchasing $40B/mth in mortgage backed securities. That these things _might_ have a downward pressure consequence on price one day. The list of absurdities goes on and on! You're doing yourself a disservice to only consider the upside potential when doing risk analysis.

I know real estate courses are rife with macroeconomics and financial theory though, wtf do I know? wtf does Robert Shiller at Yale know, either. Don't let your local R.E. nub be your financial rubric. Think for yourself and ask if you can live with both possible outcomes and which seems more likely given your observations of the world today. Don't let people bully you because you disagree, especially when their only rebuttal is character attacks and no substance. That's what weak minded pedestrian thinkers resort to when presented with any dissension to their beliefs. They might as well say "oh yeah, well my dad can beat up your dad!"

The Vegas housing market is comprised by various segments that today I think are somewhat insulated from each other. Investor rental properties are in their own world when compared to owner occupied properties in better parts of the Valley.

Of course 36% price appreciation is not going to last. It's a one time bounce from the bottom.

Not much chance that the Fed will stop buying the mortgage paper.

Looking at the Vegas housing market as a whole, I see a very slim chance of a major downturn and the a strong possibility of a slow gradual climb from this point in time.

[BBMW]

One set is trying to charge higher rents than the market will bear, the other isn't.

Originally Posted by von949

There are owners that can't find tenants for their properties and there are owners that have an ever ending supply of tenants. What doe this mean?


Sent from watch

[von949]

Originally Posted by BBMW

One set is trying to charge higher rents than the market will bear, the other isn't.

Add to that the owners that are looking for tenants with perfect credit history and 760+ credit scores.


Sent from watch

[Kitchen Witch]

Originally Posted by airics

Intesting..I purchased a rental property at the boom... except for 3 months and an eviction that took a month, its been rented for more than the mortgage. So the value went down, big deal... except for the down payment..the tenants are buying me a house..

Exactly, I agree. Over in my neck of the woods, the houses can't be available to rent soon enough, especially the more updated ones. Seems like as soon as a house becomes available to rent a tenant is in.