[olecapt]

Originally Posted by SpedF22

I disagree. Once again, I think it depends on the market segment you're considering. I've been watching the $400k+ market in Club Aliante and 89138. The homes we've seen that are in good condition and priced relatively reasonably are moving in that segment. The foreclosures in poor shape aren't moving, and the homes in good shape that are listed at 2005 prices aren't moving.

I don't know much about other segments or even other locations in the valley. But the locations I mentioned have some pretty interesting things going on relative to the action between 2002-2005.

There are always exceptions...

The REPO market however is decidely low end. The median home sold is going for $230,000. And that is about $123 per Square foot.

About 30% of the REPOs for sale are listed above $300K. About 16% above 400K. The REPOs sold however are 16% above $300K and 6.5% above $400K. The REPO months of inventory of homes above 400K is double that below $200K.

[SpedF22]

Originally Posted by olecapt

There are always exceptions...

The REPO market however is decidely low end. The median home sold is going for $230,000. And that is about $123 per Square foot.

About 30% of the REPOs for sale are listed above $300K. About 16% above 400K. The REPOs sold however are 16% above $300K and 6.5% above $400K. The REPO months of inventory of homes above 400K is double that below $200K.

Actually, sluggish movement in this market segment is what I am counting on. Resale prices haven't really fallen much in 89138, and I think it is mostly because the few REPOs that exist aren't moving either. Hopefully prices will correct in this zip in the next few months because right now its like a game of chicken. Buyers are waiting on the sidelines, and sellers won't budge on asking price. As a result, supply is plentiful and demand is scarce. However, I think if prices correct even 10%, there will be a tidal wave of sales in this zip. There are definitely buyers out there, but they are much smarter I believe than they were in the run-up of 2004-5. In fact, I'm counting on smarter buyers too. Otherwise, we still won't get the cathartic cleansing required to get prices back in line with income levels.

[olecapt]

It is an interesting gamble. Little time left. It appears pricing is stabilizing. Volume is up over 10% and inventory is down a bit. Note that the big homes did not go up nearly as much as the smaller ones. In some markets it was no more than 20% at the peak. They have now come down most of that. The premium houses in Sun City Summerlin (more than 500K) went from $200 per SF to $240 per SF and are back down to around $210. That market of course was built out and had virtually no speculator action. There are also almost no foreclosures.

I would agree that a 10% price reduction would increase sales....but note that an area wide increase of sales by a 1/3 or so may have the same impact without a price reduction. Buyers fear missing the bottom...

[bumpercar]

Prices are about to zoom to to the moon. Get in now before:

1) The line at the courthouse (to record your deed) gets too long from all the foreclosures being processed.

2) Mortgages completely dry up as Fannie Mae and Freddie blow their last capital wads from their recently increased lending limits.

3) The economy enters a deep recession.

4) Banks start to fail.

Originally Posted by olecapt

It is an interesting gamble. Little time left. It appears pricing is stabilizing. Volume is up over 10% and inventory is down a bit. Note that the big homes did not go up nearly as much as the smaller ones. In some markets it was no more than 20% at the peak. They have now come down most of that. The premium houses in Sun City Summerlin (more than 500K) went from $200 per SF to $240 per SF and are back down to around $210. That market of course was built out and had virtually no speculator action. There are also almost no foreclosures.

I would agree that a 10% price reduction would increase sales....but note that an area wide increase of sales by a 1/3 or so may have the same impact without a price reduction. Buyers fear missing the bottom...

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by bumpercar

Prices are about to zoom to to the moon. Get in now before:

.

Would not surprise me in the least in spring 2009. Very high probability by spring 2010.

You think it can't happen? Watch...

[scirocco22]

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[dude66]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Would not surprise me in the least in spring 2009. Very high probability by spring 2010.

You think it can't happen? Watch...

Sorry, Olecapt, I don't think it will happen. I still believe most real estate cheerleaders on here are totally ignoring the macro-economic environment. We're just now on the cusp of a very nasty recession that if mishandled by the Fed could mushroom into something far worse. Expect major consumer inflation (food, gas, etc.), layoffs, mortgages and credit drying up across the board, much stiffer lending standards, and a full-scale pullback by the American consumer (and the banks who prop them up).

Amid this, you *really* think people are going to start paying *more* for houses? Where, pray tell, will that extra money come from?

I mean seriously guys. SERIOUSLY. Start paying attention to what's going on. This is not a drill. It ain't pretty, and it ain't something that's just going to solve itself. There's a good reason Bernanke is slashing interest rates like nobody's business, because the man can see what's coming and he's *panicked*. So far, mortgage rates have NOT responded to his cuts the way he hoped and have actually gone up. He's rapidly running out of bullets as he cuts down to near 0% -- then POP! Once the world sees he's out of ammunition, bye bye economy...

And I better not hear someone try that old crap about real estate being local either, because that won't help us this time around. This will be GLOBAL. A set of dominoes are now in place, ready to fall, like we never dreamed existed. One pillar of the economy will yank out the next. Expect critical mass sometime this year and then it's anybody's guess how much pain we feel. I've been following the "macro" picture for two years running now and 2008 is the real deal. TRILLIONS of dollars in illusionary wealth are now vanishing. Get ready and pull yer heads out yer ass!

Yeah, call me Mr. Doom & Gloom... but common sense suggests no other likely outcome, save some economic miracle. Fat chance. Be ready for this.


2/29/08
U.S. banking sector headed for meltdown, official says

"The U.S. banking sector is headed for a credit downturn that will be "the worst in generations," featuring widespread defaults on a range of debts and a national housing price slide not seen since the Great Depression, one of the most influential analysts on Wall Street says.

Article: U.S. banking sector headed for meltdown, official says

[olecapt]

Sorry Real Estate Remains Local.

Could we be heading into a global recession/depression? I would think it possible but a low probability.

I will start to really worry when the cranes on the strip shutdown. When those vast edificies underway become inactive monument to what was to be but is no more.

In the interim pass the grain of salt.

[airics]

dude66 - you are way off.. if you live in las vegas, look around.... people are shopping for houses again (of course, not at 2005 levels), the prices have stabilized.. except for $300k+ on the repos.. of the repos, that get emailed to me, prices are higher, sizes are smaller...
on the other hand, the rest of the country is in the toilet.

[bumpercar]

So the crane indicator is not very telling. It's probably the most lagging indicator of them all. Miami is still dotted with cranes that are finishing high-rise condos that will sit vacant for a very long time.

Originally Posted by olecapt

Sorry Real Estate Remains Local.

Could we be heading into a global recession/depression? I would think it possible but a low probability.

I will start to really worry when the cranes on the strip shutdown. When those vast edificies underway become inactive monument to what was to be but is no more.

In the interim pass the grain of salt.