[bumpercar]

How does one break out how much of the drop is related to reduced foot traffic vs. just simple variance of odds at the tables?

Originally Posted by SHEPNYC

Gambling revenue down see article below:

Nevada's January gambling revenue falls 4.8 pct | Markets | Markets News | Reuters

Couple that with $4.00 a gallon gas, rising unemployment, and I find it hard to believe that there will be a rising real estate market in Las Vegas over the next 12 to 18 months.

[jfkIII]

Are they now paying 3:1 on the craps tables for making the 4 or the 10?

[airics]

anyone see the latest mortgage rates? economy in the toilet and the rates shot up...10y arm was 4.25% now almost 6.5%

[dude66]

I live in Desert Shores here in Las Vegas. We have this house near us that's seen some shifty tenants living there recently. I found out today it was three Mexican families all crammed in together, no one's even sure if they had any right to be there. They might have just been squatting. The bank is now foreclosing on the house, so the families vacated... leaving behind 4 abandoned vehicles. It's two pick-up trucks and two SUVs. Just left them on the curb and now the city has tagged them. I can see leaving a house in the middle of the night, but why abandon your cars? At least you can take those with you. Desert Shores is supposed to be nice, but feels more like a slum at the moment.

[dude66]

Originally Posted by airics

anyone see the latest mortgage rates? economy in the toilet and the rates shot up...10y arm was 4.25% now almost 6.5%

Which begs the question: WHY does Ben Bernanke and the Fed keep cutting rates? What good is it doing besides debasing the dollar and sending inflation to the moon? It's clearly not helping homeowners.

Anyway, looks like some ominous trends developing:

Dangerous Cracks Appearing in Job Market
Employers Slash Jobs, Thousands Drop Out of the Labor Force
Dangerous Cracks Appearing in Job Market: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance (broken link)

...at the same time you have...

Consumers Increase Their Borrowing in January, Especially Relying on Credit Cards
Consumers Increase Borrowing in January: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance (broken link)


So basically, people are losing their jobs at the same time the value of their homes are decreasing. They can no longer tap all the illusionary equity from their house because it either vanished, or the bank won't lend it to them. So they are falling back on credit cards to pay for things like food and rent.

Repeat this cycle for a few more months and you'll soon see large numbers of people defaulting on credit card payments the same way they are defaulting on mortgage payments.

Problem is, once these folks lose (or max out) their credit cards, they'll be living on the street. I foresee a coming boom in a new real estate market: refrigerator boxes. Nice, compact, and mobile. Fold your house up and take it with you.

Originally Posted by SHEPNYC

Gambling revenue down see article below:

Nevada's January gambling revenue falls 4.8 pct | Markets | Markets News | Reuters

Aha! I've been saying this would happen for several months now. Sorry to see myself vindicated. Way too much optimism around here that tourists would keep gambling their life savings away at a time when their life savings are already vanishing -- falling home prices. Vegas ain't immune from the pain, as I've repeated many times before. Vegas might've survived in past economic downturns, but it didn't have near the casino infrastructure that it has now, nor all the people relying on it. They've overbuilt and there IS a limit on how many casinos you can fill when times turn tough.

What the optimists seem to forget is this: real estate may be local, but the tourists we rely on for our survival don't come from around here. They come from other states and cities where home prices are crashing rather badly. Hence, they'll stop coming to Vegas altogether, and hence, real estate *isn't* really local at all. Our own economy then suffers, and that leads to falling home prices right in our own backyard.

[dude66]

Mortgage market needs $1 trillion, FBR estimates
Without that, prices of securities will fall, raising interest rates on home loans
Mortgage market needs $1 trillion to support prices, FBR says - MarketWatch

[Daddys///M3]

Originally Posted by dude66

Which begs the question: WHY does Ben Bernanke and the Fed keep cutting rates? What good is it doing besides debasing the dollar and sending inflation to the moon? It's clearly not helping homeowners.

The only reason that the Fed is lowering rates is to ease the liquidity crisis that the banks are facing. If the banks become insolvent then our worst mightmares become reality. The moves were never intended to help homeowners, although to be sure many lenders would have you believe that. As a matter of fact, when the Fed cuts rates mortgage rates trend upwards, and will usually do so a few days in advance of anticipated rate cuts. So when you hear that the Fed has cut rates, and you see a blitz of advertising that now is the time to refi due to this, be very careful as companies that prey on consumers ignorance care about only one thing, and educated, responsible borrowers is not it.

[dude66]

Originally Posted by Daddys///M3

If the banks become insolvent then our worst mightmares become reality. .

Well, apparently (I can't find a link), this is what Jim Cramer said on his CNBC show today. I don't know if this a blog or someone transcribed it:


Cramer is having a kiniption-his latest:

Banks Could Go the Way of the Home Lenders
2:50 PM EST
Major bank failures are very possible -- that's how bad it is.

Excerpt:
I am beginning to believe that we are going to see some major bank failures, and we have to
consider similar declines from the following stocks: Washington Mutual (WM), Wachovia Bank (WB),
Capital One (COF), National City (NCC), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Downey Financial (DSL),
BankUnited Financial (BKUNA) and Corus (CORS).
...
...
...
Now, I know this is an unforgivable thought that any of these banks can just disappear, but it can
no longer be taken off the table. The lower rates alone aren't going to save these guys.
...
...
...
It is that bad out there.

EDIT:

Might be some truth to this, given this news:

US Fed releases $200bn as credit crisis hits new depths (3/8/08)
"The global credit crisis plunged to new depths yesterday as persistent fears over the collapse of a large financial institution caused funding markets to dry up and forced the US Federal Reserve to make available up to $200 billion (£99.3 billion) of emergency financing."
US Fed releases $200bn as credit crisis hits new depths - Times Online

[olecapt]

All the above not withstanding the local market continues to grow rapidly.

Volume is running more than 20% ahead of last month and pendings continue to grow quickly.

The price of nonREPO homes holds study at 260K median.

The price for REPOs has dropped dramatically at the moment...down to almost 200K. The percentage of REPOs (30%) is dropping.

So we have 70% of the market stable and growing while 30% of the market goes REPO and dives deeper. Impact of the media pressure and the "REPO busses"? Got me but it sure is real.

Still looks like it is going to be a much better spring.

[ackackack]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Be kind of fun. We retirees end up owning the world. Pick the million dollar place you would like. With no one else having any income you will get those places for 10 cents on the dollar. Gonna be nice.

You could get a place like that right now if you wanted to give Detroit a try. If I didn't know better, I'd say that olecapt sounds like a "doom jerk." From one "doom jerk" to another, your forecast/dream wouldn't surprise me at all olecapt. The Baby Boomer's have been screwing this country up for a very long time now, so why shouldn't they get their cake and eat it too? It's what they do best. Their kids and their kids' kids can clean the mess up.

For something really depressing, look up Detroit real estate with no minimum price and see how many "starter" homes you could pick up for less than $1,000. Maybe when enough of these Baby Boomers become dependent on
"Generation X," we can send them to wonderful Detroit Rock City and tell them it's the new "Sun City" as a sort of "thank you" for all that they've done to our fine country.