[dano]

Well, just as I am eager to toot my horn on my great timing on the market, I am willing to admit defeat. My buyer fell-out on account that his soon-to-be ex-wife refused to sign the spousal release. Both EMDs were forfeited so I am just out inspection and appraisal fees.

Now I have to decide if I want to go through the whole process again or sit it out for a year to see what happens. What does everyone think?

[Coop01]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Read it again. It does not deal with cities. It deals with MSAs. MSAs are not cities.

What's your point? I know MSAs are not cities.
According to the OMB, a Metropolitan statistical Area( MSA) can roughly be defined as an area with a substantial population center (a county),and adjacent areas (counties) having a high degree of economic homogeneity, where economic integration is usually measured by commuting patterns. I don't care where the criminal element comes from, the crime occurs primarily in Las Vegas.

The article used the latest release of the OMB data on Metropolitan Statistical areas released 6/28/2008. It was the Las Vegas-Paradise MSA not the Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump CSA. Pahrump is an entirely different story.

Looking at the OMB map, this consists of Clark Co. The dark grey area on the map shows the concentration of population to be Las Vegas.
Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Wall Maps - December 2007

The rest of the map is green which denotes a sparse population. The Memphis MSA has a similar concentration ratio but and the Detroit MSA has a much higher population to area concentration. I'd say for discussion purposes that we are primarily talking about Las Vegas. I'd say Sin City is living up to it's name. It the 1980's and earlier, I thought Las Vegas was a nice place to live and I visited here often for recreation. This is why I considered it a good choice when I retired. I really didn't look closely because all of my memories were pleasant. It had all of the conveniences that I liked. It really changed during the uncontrolled boom era. This is my penalty for forgetting my engineering background and not adequately testing the product.

To add further insult to injury,in another article, Forbes describes Las Vegas as "emptier" than Detroit.
America's Emptiest Cities - Forbes.com

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Coop01

What's your point? I know MSAs are not cities.
According to the OMB, a Metropolitan statistical Area( MSA) can roughly be defined as an area with a substantial population center (a county),and adjacent areas (counties) having a high degree of economic homogeneity, where economic integration is usually measured by commuting patterns. I don't care where the criminal element comes from, the crime occurs primarily in Las Vegas.

The article used the latest release of the OMB data on Metropolitan Statistical areas released 6/28/2008. It was the Las Vegas-Paradise MSA not the Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump CSA. Pahrump is an entirely different story.

Looking at the OMB map, this consists of Clark Co. The dark grey area on the map shows the concentration of population to be Las Vegas.
Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Wall Maps - December 2007

The rest of the map is green which denotes a sparse population. The Memphis MSA has a similar concentration ratio but and the Detroit MSA has a much higher population to area concentration. I'd say for discussion purposes that we are primarily talking about Las Vegas. I'd say Sin City is living up to it's name. It the 1980's and earlier, I thought Las Vegas was a nice place to live and I visited here often for recreation. This is why I considered it a good choice when I retired. I really didn't look closely because all of my memories were pleasant. It had all of the conveniences that I liked. It really changed during the uncontrolled boom era. This is my penalty for forgetting my engineering background and not adequately testing the product.

To add further insult to injury,in another article, Forbes describes Las Vegas as "emptier" than Detroit.
America's Emptiest Cities - Forbes.com

Nevada always has problems with things that involve urban versus suburban/rural. Nevada is in fact the third most urban state in the US trailing oonly NY and CA.

Similar things happen with MSAs Many MSAs marry an urban core with miles of suburban and rural areas. The Las Vegas MSA is pretty close to pure urban. So it is the measurement form that disfavors Las Vegas...not the actual parameter. LV should be compared to similar urban cities. When that is done it does OK.

On a compilation of cities above 500K Las Vegas Metro is number 20 out of 33. If you correct for the tourists it is around 16th.

I have always described the crime rate here as too high to brag about but too low to spend money lowering it.

[MomMom]

This was in the RJ Business Section yesterday..interesting times as Olecapt has mentioned


Larry Murphy, president of SalesTraq, spoke to about 200 Century 21 real estate agents Tuesday and said the feedback was "pretty much unanimous" that the local housing market has improved above and beyond what his numbers are showing.




Signs of housing bottom abound - Business - ReviewJournal.com

[dmilll]

From the RJ Article:

"Last week, home sales data for March also contained some glimmers of hope for a turnaround. Existing-home sales fell just 3 percent from February to March, and new-home sales seemed to have hit bottom."

____________________________________

I'm not surprised to see something positive around this time of year as it is the spring buying season. However, I still think it is premature to say the bottom has been reached.

As an example, take a look at today's article about the bond market.

Fed fights a losing battle on bonds - Apr. 30, 2009

In short, the 10 year note has an impact on mortgage rates. When bond yields rise so do interest rates. When bond prices fall, interest rates also go up. That is exactly what is going on now and has the potential to derail any recovery as buyers will have to contend with higher borrowing costs.

[CuriousMike]

Originally Posted by dano

Well, just as I am eager to toot my horn on my great timing on the market, I am willing to admit defeat. My buyer fell-out on account that his soon-to-be ex-wife refused to sign the spousal release. Both EMDs were forfeited so I am just out inspection and appraisal fees.

Now I have to decide if I want to go through the whole process again or sit it out for a year to see what happens. What does everyone think?

I say sell now. This isn't rocket science there was a foreclosure moratorium. No kidding the supply would go down for a bit and price would firm for a spell the question is what happens from here. With the spigot back open and ALT-A's coming next I don't see how that holds. Plenty will jump in now thinking prices have come down so much and will look at this as opportunity. Use that and sell into it. That's the psychology of a bubble...and bubble bursting. In the GD the stock market ran up 20% four freaking times before finally reaching its bottom. That too is destined to go lower.

[CuriousMike]

Here's an article from Forbes explaining why they think the market will go lower and by how much based on historical measures.

Behind the Numbers
To figure out which housing markets have yet to reach bottom, we looked at the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S., as defined by the Office of Management and Budget and, using calculations from Moody's, analyzed each area's spending power, unemployment, housing and credit availability going back 27 years.

Over that time, each area's home prices have fluctuated differently according to these factors. Moody's calculations determine how much each area's home prices would have to change to bring that particular housing market back to a state of balance. The further from equilibrium, the further the market has to go. Projections were made on the basis of the current rate of price decline, absorption rate, employment and salary deterioration, and how long it would take each metro to wash out to a historical point of balance.

How Low Will Real Estate Go? - Forbes.com

8 (tie). Las Vegas, Nev.

(Las Vegas-Paradise metro area)
Price correction necessary: 25%
Median income: $37,020
Median home price: $181,700
Unemployment rate: 10.1%
Projected bottom: June 2010

In Depth: How Low Will Real Estate Go? - Forbes.com

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by CuriousMike

I say sell now. This isn't rocket science there was a foreclosure moratorium. No kidding the supply would go down for a bit and price would firm for a spell the question is what happens from here. With the spigot back open and ALT-A's coming next I don't see how that holds. Plenty will jump in now thinking prices have come down so much and will look at this as opportunity. Use that and sell into it. That's the psychology of a bubble...and bubble bursting. In the GD the stock market ran up 20% four freaking times before finally reaching its bottom. That too is destined to go lower.

In the equity markets they refer to it as a "value trap", and I might be one one of latest suckers to fall for it. I was in Vegas last week and made an offer on several foreclosures. Ultimately, a deal was struck and I'm now in contract. For several weeks, I've been vacillating back and forth on whether this was the right time to buy. I finally pulled the trigger. Almost immediately I started thinking about how I was going to hedge my risk. I might sell short a basket of the homebuilder stocks or a real estate ETF. Seriously.

[jpk]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

In the equity markets they refer to it as a "value trap", and I might be one one of latest suckers to fall for it. I was in Vegas last week and made an offer on several foreclosures. Ultimately, a deal was struck and I'm now in contract. For several weeks, I've been vacillating back and forth on whether this was the right time to buy. I finally pulled the trigger. Almost immediately I started thinking about how I was going to hedge my risk. I might sell short a basket of the homebuilder stocks or a real estate ETF. Seriously.

Are you seriously that short term of a real-estate investor? Or do you use mark-to-market accounting for your personal assets? Why in the heck would you need to hedge a real estate purchase like that otherwise?

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by jpk

Are you seriously that short term of a real-estate investor? Or do you use mark-to-market accounting for your personal assets? Why in the heck would you need to hedge a real estate purchase like that otherwise?

I'm happy to say that after FASB saw fit to loosen the rules earlier this month, I'm no longer required to use mark-to-market accounting on my personal assets.