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Old 07-14-2017, 07:18 PM
EA EA started this thread
 
Location: Las Vegas
6,791 posts, read 7,078,099 times
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I am no expert by any stretch of the imagination. This is just what I've been observing over the last few months.
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Old 07-14-2017, 07:44 PM
 
469 posts, read 489,971 times
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Hopefully the housing market crashes here again.
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Old 07-14-2017, 10:29 PM
 
927 posts, read 876,409 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soclose View Post
Hopefully the housing market crashes here again.
I don't see it. Prices keep going up 10% each year due to a shrinking inventory and increased demand. This is the most competitive summer I've seen since 2013.

People keep moving here from California and bringing equity from the sale of their house.
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Old 07-14-2017, 10:35 PM
 
15,756 posts, read 14,358,967 times
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So when are the builders going to be firing up again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by lvmensch View Post
I am not convinced your thesis is true. Denver for instance was rising as fast before pot as after. Phoenix, Dallas and Las VEgas are pretty cheap...Around 52% to 54% for rent and other costs with NYC the 100%. Denver is around 68% and Seattle 79%. LA is 74% and SF 110%.

There is considerable pressure on prices in Las Vegas....mostly because the inventory is remaining below 1 month. We are likely to see 1 or 2% per month price increases driven by that alone. I don't have the faintest idea if that will continue over the winter doldrums but it is likely until then.

And I have no idea whether this continues next year. But given the present picture I would think a home purchaser has an excellent chance of breaking even in a year or 18 months.
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Old 07-14-2017, 11:55 PM
 
469 posts, read 489,971 times
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Housing prices maybe going up but it doesn't mean people will buy them for the increased price. I've notice more houses that are over $240K are on the market for over a month.
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Old 07-15-2017, 09:57 AM
 
13,586 posts, read 13,041,392 times
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Its another bubble. Be careful.
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Old 07-15-2017, 10:37 AM
 
Location: Here and there, you decide.
12,908 posts, read 27,881,006 times
Reputation: 5050
I don't think it's a bubble. The supply has shrunk and the cost of a new build is too high... I think 2 more years of skyrocketing. If my house hits 500, I'm headed back to the Midwest. I bought for 252 in 2008, it's about 325 now, it was almost 600 in 2006.

On the new builds you don't get much for 300
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Old 07-15-2017, 11:34 AM
 
Location: North Las Vegas NV
661 posts, read 626,584 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NLVgal View Post
Its another bubble. Be careful.
Not even close. Townhomes were selling for 340k in my hoa back in 2006. They are selling below 200k now.
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Old 07-15-2017, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Paranoid State
13,044 posts, read 13,790,725 times
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One foot in a bucket of ice water, the other in scalding hot water, but on average it is just fine.
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Old 07-15-2017, 11:52 AM
 
Location: Paranoid State
13,044 posts, read 13,790,725 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NLVgal View Post
Its another bubble. Be careful.
One of the fundamental characteristics of a bubble is that they are exceedingly difficult to call when you are in the middle of one. Is it a bubble? Or are people doing an asset exchange from appreciated stock/savings to housing? It is only afterwards that you can say it was a bubble.

Moreover, it really isn't clear just what a bubble really means. Are lenders lending too much? Lenders lend what savers save (with a multiplier effect). If lenders are lending too much, does that mean savers are saving too much?

Sometimes it is demographic. The Baby Boom that started not long after GIs returned from WWII produced a cohort that, 20-25 years later started household formation which of course included demand for housing. In the late 1960s and early 1970s the price of housing started to escalate above the inflation rate, and commentators at the time talked about a housing bubble. It turned out it was driven by baby boomers coming of age. The chart below, if scaled for 1980, would show a huge increase during the 1970s. That huge increase, by the way, was underneath the huge increase in property taxes that spawned Prop 13 in California and a tidal wave of activism across the nation. The point is it is very, very difficult to know if something is a "bubble" until after it has "popped."



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