U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Nevada > Las Vegas
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 12-28-2018, 08:39 PM
 
Location: NY / Fl.
350 posts, read 264,528 times
Reputation: 665

Advertisements

Anybody who experienced the 2008 Bust might be sensing some warning signs.. Low interest rates then, still relatively low. Prices in the nations hot spots were spiking, not true in South Florida this time and Vegas seems fairly reasonable. Inventory can fluctuate, low can raise prices, high can drop...The big difference I see now is the economy is strong overall, compared to 2008. The stock market is not the economy... Baby boomers are real buyers not flippers as in 2008. Nevada is incredibly popular, warm, dry, fun, and ahem..pot... Not a gambler, but if I owned property in Vegas right now I'd feel pretty damn good about the future... NY State..not so much...

 
Old 12-29-2018, 01:37 AM
 
Location: Tucson/Nogales
16,777 posts, read 20,501,480 times
Reputation: 23070
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonathanLB View Post
Are you kidding? Iím curious what your reasoning is here, a city thatís just one giant sprawl with a state that has an income tax (low, but exists) and a city where thereís no Strip, not a world class city, just another city with a decent diversified economy but boring as hell otherwise. Phoenix is just a Strip-less, boring version of Vegas with more miserable summers and absolutely nothing thatís better in any way than Vegas. Even having 4 sports teams means nothing because youíd be hard pressed to root for any of those losers..
Oh Lord-ee-Bee! No Strip? Well, most locals don't go to the Strip anyway, so it may as well not be there!
Yes, Phoenix is a world-class city, an art museum puts a stamp on that, and without an art museum in Las Vegas it will never be world-class city! And a really mature, civilized city has a light rail system, which Phoenix has, which I've ridden from the Airport to downtown Phoenix and east to Mesa and Tempe. Now that really, really makes it a world-class city!
 
Old 12-29-2018, 02:56 AM
 
55 posts, read 26,190 times
Reputation: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme View Post
Who's the insurance company?

$280 sounds mighty inexpensive
Allstate
 
Old 12-29-2018, 07:16 AM
 
Location: Here and there, you decide.
11,726 posts, read 23,038,831 times
Reputation: 3983
280 every 6 months through the highest cost insurer. Heck, if you went with Universal, they would pay you
 
Old 12-30-2018, 01:20 PM
 
Location: Temecula
224 posts, read 437,566 times
Reputation: 296
Quote:
Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme View Post
So you're saying all the people that make these forecasts, that have advanced degrees in Economics, are Economists by trade are getting it wrong? For example: https://www.forbes.com/sites/billcon...bubble-in-2019

....and that you, a modern day Nostradamus, are correct.
[ ] Makes sense

Definition of Forecast:
predict or estimate (a future event or trend).

Are you therefore predicting a housing bust or making a joke (by your own definition)?
Which is it?
Well, Bloomberg asked a dozen financial experts at the beginning of 2018 where they thought the SP 500, Dow, nasdaq, Russell 2k would be at the end of the year. All 12 of them said these indexes would finish the year higher. All 12 are very wrong. I will reiterate that forecasts are a joke.

In addition, most real estate forecasts are initiated by an entity with skin in the game, like the national association of realtors, or Zillow. These entities make money on memberships, ads, etc. if they were to tell the truth, that housing values would start to decline in 2019 (many markets already started in 18), there would be massive losses in revenues for these entities. How is a realtor going to sell a house if their own agency is telling buyers the housing prices will fall after they buy.

Facts donít care about your feelings.
 
Old 12-30-2018, 01:40 PM
 
Location: California
201 posts, read 57,333 times
Reputation: 314
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tool Shed View Post
Well, Bloomberg asked a dozen financial experts at the beginning of 2018 where they thought the SP 500, Dow, nasdaq, Russell 2k would be at the end of the year. All 12 of them said these indexes would finish the year higher. All 12 are very wrong. I will reiterate that forecasts are a joke.

In addition, most real estate forecasts are initiated by an entity with skin in the game, like the national association of realtors, or Zillow. These entities make money on memberships, ads, etc. if they were to tell the truth, that housing values would start to decline in 2019 (many markets already started in 18), there would be massive losses in revenues for these entities. How is a realtor going to sell a house if their own agency is telling buyers the housing prices will fall after they buy.

Facts donít care about your feelings.
Thank you. People havenít learned their lessons yet, still pawns in the game. Iím not all about doom and gloom but when the people who control the system win no matter if we win or lose, you gotta be ready for anything. I want the best because I own property but Iím not gonna delude myself either.
 
Old 12-30-2018, 02:02 PM
 
Location: Temecula
224 posts, read 437,566 times
Reputation: 296
Quote:
Originally Posted by john-staten island View Post
Anybody who experienced the 2008 Bust might be sensing some warning signs.. Low interest rates then, still relatively low. Prices in the nations hot spots were spiking, not true in South Florida this time and Vegas seems fairly reasonable. Inventory can fluctuate, low can raise prices, high can drop...The big difference I see now is the economy is strong overall, compared to 2008. The stock market is not the economy... Baby boomers are real buyers not flippers as in 2008. Nevada is incredibly popular, warm, dry, fun, and ahem..pot... Not a gambler, but if I owned property in Vegas right now I'd feel pretty damn good about the future... NY State..not so much...
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ffers-november

It will something look like this:

.Peak unaffordability now (high prices, higher rates, record long bull market)
.increased inventory, new home building for 10 years (happening in Vegas now, more to come in spring)
.smart sellers and builders will issue price reductions to sell as there are limited buyers at current prices
.home prices slowly trend downward
.refinancing dries up as rates are higher than before, banks/lenders lay off (already happening)
.builders slow building in markets with falling prices/too much inventory
.Some contruction workers laid off and those were good paychecks
.home flipping stops completely (hurts RE agents, construction, home improvement stores, loan officers, etc)
.purchasing of homes to use as Airbnb / vacation homes slows drastically further increasing supply.
.big companies start layoffs as economy slows (ask ford about this)
.Credit markets start to seize.
.by 2020 the huge portion of our economy known as the RE machine is in full seizure mode.
.many RE agent jobs, construction, lender, pool builder, etc paychecks are halved if not gone completely (it happened before and will again, only a small fraction will survive this)
.foreclosures spike like before, adding to the inventory further, adding to the price declines.
.discretionary spending slows dramatically outside of RE as well (cars, travel, new iPhones, dinners out)
.we realize there are many more houses for sale than ever thought possible as financially weak families move in to existing homes with financially strong families/friends.
.many large corporations issue massive layoffs, some fold completely as the credit bubble is in full deflation mode and the strong consumer is completely gone.
.recession is official but lowering interest rates again and quantitative easing wonít work as it did before.

There will be 2 options facing the country.

1. Salvage to US dollar by not slashing rates to 0 and by not doing more QE. This will require a painful recession but is required and is healthy.

2. Attempt to stimulate the economy yet again by slashing rates, deploying more QE, etc. The dollar will collapse and it will become clear that the fundamentals of our economy is extremely weak. More debt is required to service existing debt, other countries realize they wonít get paid. Massive inflation kicks in. Imported stuff (just about everything) becomes very expensive. Dollar loses reserve currency status.

Think of it like this, there is an addict addicted to opiates, you can make them happy with more opiates when they grow a fit. This is option 2. You can go trough detox and withdrawls and they can eventually get off opiates and be a normal person again. This is option 1. I predict political pressure will lead us to option 2, which is far worse in the long run.
 
Old 12-30-2018, 02:56 PM
 
1,748 posts, read 3,115,380 times
Reputation: 1871
A million assumptions in that message. I won't even start to address them. Yes it could play out that way, but it's unlikely. "debt, other countries realize they wonít get paid" isn't going to matter. The world economy is built on debt for better or worse. Our debt situation is viewed in a lens relative to other economies and in that lens it's not that bad.

No way politicians will voluntarily let us stay in a long recession. They'll be lowering rates, QE, whatever it takes to kick that can down the road.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tool Shed View Post
 
Old 12-30-2018, 11:24 PM
 
239 posts, read 226,995 times
Reputation: 135
Buy gold rather than keep fiat money.
 
Old 12-31-2018, 01:55 AM
 
Location: New Braunfels, TX
6,084 posts, read 8,715,040 times
Reputation: 5983
Quote:
Originally Posted by ragabnh View Post
Buy gold rather than keep fiat money.
Or lead.....with lead, I can get anything - including the gold.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Closed Thread


Options
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2016 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Nevada > Las Vegas
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top