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Old 01-30-2019, 04:47 PM
 
11,569 posts, read 4,209,859 times
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A poster was complaining that a thread on RE got hijacked - which it did. So a few words on where the market appears to be.

Everybody appears to see some stabilizing. The consensus is that we are not going to see double digit growth in 2019. High single digit though is still being projected.

There is a school of thought projecting a significant drop. Appears unlikely though as the forces driving the market in Las Vegas are not changing in any major way. We have a couple of clients who are hanging back expecting a drop. I think they will be disappointed. It is still a buy not rent market for at least another year.

We could of course get whacked in a general US recession. But short of that nothing looks to effect LV.

We do see some selective weakening. The half acre properties in the NW for instance now have over 6 months of inventory and the selling price appears down a few percent from a peak last July..

On the other side Sun City Summerlin and Siena have both taken off in the last 60 days with very high sales. The inventory position in both has also increased significantly. So more for sale and more being sold.

I would also note that the new build area has some standing inventory. A year ago there was almost none.
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:12 AM
 
Location: The North
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Thanks for the update, now can we get back to arguing over a wall
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:48 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Willy702 View Post
Thanks for the update, now can we get back to arguing over a wall
Yes and It will be built
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Old 01-31-2019, 07:32 AM
 
Location: Vienna
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You mention the half acre properties in NW. Means your own and my property are not projected to do well in 2019 and show weakness?
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Old 01-31-2019, 08:45 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas
3,452 posts, read 5,498,975 times
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I would like to eventually get into an older and not huge single story with at least half an acre in the NW or west central. Really wish I would have jumped on the chance back when the bubble burst rather than moving out of state. It's encouraging to think this could potentially still be in the cards one day. I pretty much abandoned the thought about 2 years ago.
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Old 01-31-2019, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas
2,020 posts, read 1,401,769 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoHoVe View Post
I would like to eventually get into an older and not huge single story with at least half an acre in the NW or west central. Really wish I would have jumped on the chance back when the bubble burst rather than moving out of state. It's encouraging to think this could potentially still be in the cards one day. I pretty much abandoned the thought about 2 years ago.
Hindsight is 20/20. A lot of suburbs look liked they were going to be ghost towns. It wasn't easy buying when unemployment was sky high and the economy was in the shltter. It was a gamble that paid off if you were willing to take a risk.

Anything could potentially be on the cards one day, but it would take a lot for prices to fall as much as they did. It's just very unlikely.

Unless you're in the flipping game, real estate is always one of the best long term investments. The market is about where it should be right now, it's not crazy.
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:04 PM
 
11,569 posts, read 4,209,859 times
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Originally Posted by Michael2016 View Post
You mention the half acre properties in NW. Means your own and my property are not projected to do well in 2019 and show weakness?
Too soon to say that. What is clear is we lost a little value in the second half of 2018. And the inventory is relatively high. So we watch in March and see what is happening. I would think the worst case is flat. More likely a lower than the Las Vegas increase. But let's wait and see.
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:22 PM
 
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Investment property ROIs are pretty low these days. Unless you can scoop up a deal, after your costs are calculated, you're looking at ~5.5%. Not terrible, but not crazy, and that means having to be a hands on landlord. If you are out of state or don't want to deal with tenants, that's more like 4%. I don't know if there are other parts of the country with better numbers on ROI, but I can't see it being much better in some place like Boise or Memphis. Investors are better off parking their money in CDs for now until index fund volatility is stabilized.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:35 PM
 
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What's happening in the LA market? That will pretty much tell you what will happen in the Vegas market.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:37 PM
 
Location: The North
5,035 posts, read 8,872,021 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddrhazy View Post
Investment property ROIs are pretty low these days. Unless you can scoop up a deal, after your costs are calculated, you're looking at ~5.5%. Not terrible, but not crazy, and that means having to be a hands on landlord. If you are out of state or don't want to deal with tenants, that's more like 4%. I don't know if there are other parts of the country with better numbers on ROI, but I can't see it being much better in some place like Boise or Memphis. Investors are better off parking their money in CDs for now until index fund volatility is stabilized.
ROIs have rarely been good in Las Vegas. Even back in the 90s I remember they were maybe 7-8% and houses were really cheap back then. Rents have just never been strong, but they have finally seen some strength in the last few years. I think a lot of it has been that California has always had even worse ROIs so you'd get demand from investors bidding up home prices, while rentals have never had excess demand because most could buy a house and pay much less for a mortgage than rent. The rule in the past was rent for six months and see if you really wanted to stay, then go buy a house. Not so easy for a lot of the more recent transplants so the market dynamics are changing.
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