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Old 07-14-2019, 06:22 PM
 
Location: Viva Las Vegas bound!
2,786 posts, read 2,123,475 times
Reputation: 2357

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker View Post
This is exactly what everyone was saying back in 2007. It is different this time, I know. The only difference is the bubbles are bigger than they were back then.

I would not wish for another crash. The last one was good because it was controlled. I personally believe they will lose control of the next one which will not be good for any of us. The hedge fund doctor you are referring to is correct. History is going to repeat itself.

"There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue."
... Sec. of Treasury, Andrew Mellon,
September 1929.

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau".

... Yale Economist Irving Fisher,
October 16th 1929.

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
... Chairman Arthur Reynolds
Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago
October 24th 1929.

"I have no fear of another comparable decline."
... Arthur W. Loasby
President Equitable Trust Co.
October 25th 1929.

"There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust"
...Ben Bernanke
October 2005
I haven't seen anything that discusses the size of the bubble but after the last crash there was discussion of a double dip recession and a larger bubble which hasn't come to fruition yet. A bust is coming though. It always does. Let's hope for a series of corrections instead of the worst case scenario of another end of the world Black Friday where the global economy is rocked by what happens here. On the good side the dollar is very strong for now.

In my early 20's I studied international business and worked at a financial firm briefly. In the mornings I would run on the treadmill while watching Alan Greenspan, had a subscription to the Wall Street Journal and followed the G20 summits to keep up. In business I learned they're only interested in 20% of the wealthiest clients while the other 80% is a bunch of busy work for little reward. I aced economics but hated the predatory practices and crony capitalism. Before leaving I was told I was too nice and I should go to NYC to be toughened up by their ruthlessness I assume. No thanks. I'm too empathetic but empathy served me well working in healthcare for a decade. It did not serve me when going back to school and working in TV news afterwards. It reminded me very much of business except we're supposed to be neutral observers and that's hard when you're human and want to help but you're trained to tell the story and not become it. I don't know why I thought I could pursue truth and maybe change the system. With age I'm more cynical and jaded now but still attempting to be positive to balance it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Svoboda View Post
Just curious, but if we're at/near full employment and the economy is kicking ass like all the metrics suggest, why would we be lowering interest rates?
They do it to stimulate economic growth to keep the boat afloat based on speculation. Right now it's both political and economical. They want to keep the economy strong because it's good for the current administration in reelection. The current economy is running strong because Obama set it up that way. In the last year though with the tinkering of tariffs it's been transitioning into Trump's economy.

Last edited by Merry Lee Gather; 07-14-2019 at 06:32 PM..
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Old 07-14-2019, 06:41 PM
 
97 posts, read 18,657 times
Reputation: 44
Crash is coMing. Vegas will be deVasted like never before. You just don't know when.

I hear it won't be as bad as 2008. How do they know..... Lol. Very few saw 2008 coming. The one guy who did made billioNs.
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Old 07-14-2019, 06:45 PM
 
97 posts, read 18,657 times
Reputation: 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather View Post
I haven't seen anything that discusses the size of the bubble but after the last crash there was discussion of a double dip recession and a larger bubble which hasn't come to fruition yet. A bust is coming though. It always does. Let's hope for a series of corrections instead of the worst case scenario of another end of the world Black Friday where the global economy is rocked by what happens here. On the good side the dollar is very strong for now.

In my early 20's I studied international business and worked at a financial firm briefly. In the mornings I would run on the treadmill while watching Alan Greenspan, had a subscription to the Wall Street Journal and followed the G20 summits to keep up. In business I learned they're only interested in 20% of the wealthiest clients while the other 80% is a bunch of busy work for little reward. I aced economics but hated the predatory practices and crony capitalism. Before leaving I was told I was too nice and I should go to NYC to be toughened up by their ruthlessness I assume. No thanks. I'm too empathetic but empathy served me well working in healthcare for a decade. It did not serve me when going back to school and working in TV news afterwards. It reminded me very much of business except we're supposed to be neutral observers and that's hard when you're human and want to help but you're trained to tell the story and not become it. I don't know why I thought I could pursue truth and maybe change the system. With age I'm more cynical and jaded now but still attempting to be positive to balance it.



They do it to stimulate economic growth to keep the boat afloat based on speculation. Right now it's both political and economical. They want to keep the economy strong because it's good for the current administration in reelection. The current economy is running strong because Obama set it up that way. In the last year though with the tinkering of tariffs it's been transitioning into Trump's economy.
Obama care is holding back the economy by 1% point. It's like asking Secretariat to win with Oprah Winfrey as its Jockey.
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Old 07-14-2019, 07:02 PM
 
Location: Viva Las Vegas bound!
2,786 posts, read 2,123,475 times
Reputation: 2357
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeers McGee View Post
Obama care is holding back the economy by 1% point. It's like asking Secretariat to win with Oprah Winfrey as its Jockey.
Obama care wasn't practical. I do believe in Universal Healthcare but Obama care wasn't that. It's a very complicated topic. He had all the power to pass something better but he towed this moderate corporate democrat position. Which is really Republican lite according to Chomsky whose written over a hundred books on history and politics. Obama even admitted in interviews a decade ago he would be considered a Republican.
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Old 07-14-2019, 10:56 PM
 
Location: Portland, OR
5,638 posts, read 5,932,601 times
Reputation: 6446
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker View Post
This is exactly what everyone was saying back in 2007. It is different this time, I know. The only difference is the bubbles are bigger than they were back then.




I would not wish for another crash. The last one was good because it was controlled. I personally believe they will lose control of the next one which will not be good for any of us. The hedge fund doctor you are referring to is correct. History is going to repeat itself.




"There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue."
... Sec. of Treasury, Andrew Mellon,
September 1929.


"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau".

... Yale Economist Irving Fisher,
October 16th 1929.



"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
... Chairman Arthur Reynolds
Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago
October 24th 1929.


"I have no fear of another comparable decline."
... Arthur W. Loasby
President Equitable Trust Co.
October 25th 1929.


"There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust"
...Ben Bernanke
October 2005
What on earth are you on about?! Housing prices are STILL lower than pre-recession prices! There is no bubble, take the tin foil hat off. Thereís zero in common with today and before the housing crash. Itís become nearly impossible to get a mortgage without a W2 and it better show great income. Itís nothing like 2007.
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Old 07-15-2019, 12:54 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
639 posts, read 497,078 times
Reputation: 1904
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonathanLB View Post
What on earth are you on about?! Housing prices are STILL lower than pre-recession prices! There is no bubble, take the tin foil hat off. Thereís zero in common with today and before the housing crash. Itís become nearly impossible to get a mortgage without a W2 and it better show great income. Itís nothing like 2007.

The pre-recession prices were a bubble and have been surpassed 3 years ago per Case-Shiller. Here we are not far from all time highs. Since this thread is about low cost apartments, I will leave it at that.
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Old 07-15-2019, 07:30 AM
 
2,479 posts, read 2,447,338 times
Reputation: 1591
If Vegas housing median was the same price in 2006 it would be ~400k after adjusted for inflation.
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Old 07-15-2019, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Here and there, you decide.
12,072 posts, read 23,565,857 times
Reputation: 4213
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker View Post
The pre-recession prices were a bubble and have been surpassed 3 years ago per Case-Shiller. Here we are not far from all time highs. Since this thread is about low cost apartments, I will leave it at that.
Not even close was adjuster for inflation
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Old 07-15-2019, 07:24 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
639 posts, read 497,078 times
Reputation: 1904
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddrhazy View Post
If Vegas housing median was the same price in 2006 it would be ~400k after adjusted for inflation.

That was the height of the bubble and we all know what happened from there. In 1989 the Las Vegas housing median was $100,000. If you adjust for inflation it would be $210,000 today. If you draw a straight line on any historical graph that is where we would be now. We are at $300,000 which is bubble pricing only being sustained by ridiculously low interest rates.
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Old 07-15-2019, 07:37 PM
 
2,479 posts, read 2,447,338 times
Reputation: 1591
If you believe a bubble is coming, you should sell your own residence and rent. However, there are still multi million dollar deals happening where huge hedge funds are buying apartment complexes for $200k+ per unit, so parties with far more money on the line have high confidence in the market.
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