[Katie the heartbreaker]

Originally Posted by airics

300 is cheap for what you get. If that house goes back down to 125, I’ll buy 4 of them. You won’t see a 50% drop, or even 25% ever again in Vegas. Meanwhile, the ones that know it all and predicting a crash again, keep paying rent in their apartments and don’t have any thing to invest with.

Are you are buyer at $300,000? I may not have anything to invest, but I know plenty of people personally who do. None of them are willing to pay these prices as they are 50% overvalued. Historically, a crash comes every 5-10 years. There is no such thing as predicting a crash as it is guaranteed. Some of them are minor like 1991 or 2001 which have very little effect on housing prices. The only thing to debate is whether it will be minor or severe, and what effect it will have on housing prices.

[Svoboda]

This isn't strictly a Vegas thing. Housing is overpriced in most markets. Even foreigners have realized it and quit buying -- this just came across my news alerts today:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/foreign...op-11563396472

There is also a lot of talk that Chinese and foreign economies are suffering badly and I actually just read a piece on how Brexit has been disasterous to the Brittish and has caused wages to fall faster than their big recession in the 90s.

There is a correction coming. I don't care what the government numbers say -- this isn't sustainable. We have a record expansion yet the largest increase in debt and they still are cutting rates to try to keep it propped up. Now, will Vegas be immune due to the allures of living here -- weather, entertainment, etc? That is the million dollar question.

[ddrhazy]

Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker

Are you are buyer at $300,000? I may not have anything to invest, but I know plenty of people personally who do. None of them are willing to pay these prices as they are 50% overvalued. Historically, a crash comes every 5-10 years. There is no such thing as predicting a crash as it is guaranteed. Some of them are minor like 1991 or 2001 which have very little effect on housing prices. The only thing to debate is whether it will be minor or severe, and what effect it will have on housing prices.

A 300k median priced house is 50% overvalued? So you think an SFR should be 150k? You can't even build an SFR for that price anymore, even if you get the land for free.

[Merrily Gather]

We'll see. Vegas got hit hardest last crash cause it's mainly a one trick pony and needs to diversify its economy more. If people can't come they can't come.

I've read and watched several opinions on it that the recession has already started and the bubble is in the student loan debts. Recent pieces say it will hit 2020. It's always speculation. Some telling points are Trump saying if he's not reelected there will be a crash. So he knows something, and it would come either way. Another telling point is Feds cutting interest rates to stimulate growth and see if investors buy. Some areas will be better than others but it really could take awhile longer to all play out.

Brexit was always going to see a dip leaving before it got better. There is the idea of Brexit and then there is the reality. People voted on the idea without knowing the reality first. Now that they know the facts from the negotiations they should take a second vote. There's no real reason not to. It's like buying a car. You have to niggle all the details in negotiations before deciding and signing on the dotted line. It's rarely ever one and done like the Brexiteers like to sell it with a No deal Brexit. On the bright side the EU will likely take them back even if they leave, but leaving isn't going to be the end of the world that brings the apocalypse or anything.

[airics]

Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker

Are you are buyer at $300,000? I may not have anything to invest, but I know plenty of people personally who do. None of them are willing to pay these prices as they are 50% overvalued. Historically, a crash comes every 5-10 years. There is no such thing as predicting a crash as it is guaranteed. Some of them are minor like 1991 or 2001 which have very little effect on housing prices. The only thing to debate is whether it will be minor or severe, and what effect it will have on housing prices.

No, I sold my house for almost 400k there in 12 hours. I took the money and bought 3 in Florida for cash.

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker

Are you are buyer at $300,000? I may not have anything to invest, but I know plenty of people personally who do. None of them are willing to pay these prices as they are 50% overvalued. Historically, a crash comes every 5-10 years. There is no such thing as predicting a crash as it is guaranteed. Some of them are minor like 1991 or 2001 which have very little effect on housing prices. The only thing to debate is whether it will be minor or severe, and what effect it will have on housing prices.

If you project the housing price change during the 90s out to today you find the present pricing ranges from 6 or 7% high to right on. What actually happened here is we got a much bigger bubble than elsewhere. So we will be a bit longer recovering. We still have a ways to go.

But there is nothing going on in Las Vegas to indicate an oncoming bust.

[Jeers McGee]

Oncoming correcTions dont put ads on television saying here i come sell your Vegas real estate.....lol.

[Merrily Gather]

True, just like banks who are committing fraud are never going to divulge that information to their clients.

[PinkString]

Our townhome was a great price when we bought it in the beginning of 2004. The value went up to almost $300,000 back in the boom years, a few years after we bought. Then the big crash, and it was worth probably around $100,000. Over the years, it has progressively gone way up again, but this is the catch. We get SO many offers from realtors, saying people are lined up just waiting to buy our place. Big deal. If we did sell, by the time we paid off everything, we could no longer afford to live in a decent area and would have to move to Ohio or somewhere homes are cheaper. I am from Ohio, have a ton of relatives there, but I do not want to live there. I like it out west. I need mountains to look at every day, and I have that where we live. So, we will continue to do what we have been doing as the price goes up, the price goes down, up, down, up, down, up. We will stay right here where we are until WE decide to move away. Not because someone wants our peaceful little home.

[Katie the heartbreaker]

Originally Posted by airics

No, I sold my house for almost 400k there in 12 hours. I took the money and bought 3 in Florida for cash.

I think you probably did very well on your house in Las Vegas, but will most likely not do the same in Florida unless your willing to hold for a very long time.

Originally Posted by ddrhazy

A 300k median priced house is 50% overvalued? So you think an SFR should be 150k? You can't even build an SFR for that price anymore, even if you get the land for free.

$200,000-$220,000, not $150,000.

Originally Posted by Svoboda

This isn't strictly a Vegas thing. Housing is overpriced in most markets. Even foreigners have realized it and quit buying -- this just came across my news alerts today:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/foreign...op-11563396472

There is also a lot of talk that Chinese and foreign economies are suffering badly and I actually just read a piece on how Brexit has been disasterous to the Brittish and has caused wages to fall faster than their big recession in the 90s.

There is a correction coming. I don't care what the government numbers say -- this isn't sustainable. We have a record expansion yet the largest increase in debt and they still are cutting rates to try to keep it propped up. Now, will Vegas be immune due to the allures of living here -- weather, entertainment, etc? That is the million dollar question.

Yep, no arguments there.

Originally Posted by lvmensch

If you project the housing price change during the 90s out to today you find the present pricing ranges from 6 or 7% high to right on. What actually happened here is we got a much bigger bubble than elsewhere. So we will be a bit longer recovering. We still have a ways to go.

But there is nothing going on in Las Vegas to indicate an oncoming bust.

That is not what I am seeing on any long term graph of Las Vegas housing prices? Housing prices went up with wages and inflation until around the year 2000 when the last bubble started. If I take 1989, I get around $210,000 with inflation. If I take 2001, I get $220,000 with inflation. Anything after that was either way overvalued i.e. 2005 or way undervalued i.e. 2011.