[OmegaSupreme]

Just draw a straight line from 1985 to now. Doesn't look so bad, Las Vegas is still undervalued.

[Jeers McGee]

I take a lot of heat for saying this. Las Vegas got Smashed even though many people were moving here. Think 10 years ago.

Las Vegas is not Hi which wasn't even NickeD by the great recession. Hula parties weren't affected one bit.

[homerboy]

Originally Posted by Dom Cobb

Housing (Real Estate) is one of the most simple markets to understand.

Net migration into Las Vegas continues to increase YoY and there is a finite supply of (usable/buildable/desirable) land here. Within that, you have most land sold to large developers who then parcel out neighborhoods and build individual homes. That is a micro oligopoly that controls the prices to a certain degree.

This is a very good post and analysis.



Can you elaborate on the finite supply of usable/buildable/desirable land in Las Vegas? LV being in the desert, I would assume there in a INFINITE supply usable/buildable land?

[ddrhazy]

Even though we're in the desert, we're surrounded by federal lands managed by the BLM. It's possible that in the future they would release more lands for development, but I don't even think that's a good policy for Clark County to rely on. Vegas needs to start building more densely. Any new development near the strip and downtown should be a minimum of 6 stories IMO.

https://www.milliefine.com/las-vegas...g-out-of-land/

http://gisgate.co.clark.nv.us/gisplo...blic_Lands.pdf

[Dom Cobb]

Originally Posted by ddrhazy

Even though we're in the desert, we're surrounded by federal lands managed by the BLM. It's possible that in the future they would release more lands for development, but I don't even think that's a good policy for Clark County to rely on. Vegas needs to start building more densely. Anything near the strip and downtown should be a minimum of 6 stories IMO.

https://www.milliefine.com/las-vegas...g-out-of-land/

http://gisgate.co.clark.nv.us/gisplo...blic_Lands.pdf

Thanks for the links and response.

My point is that there is only going to be a certain amount of land that is viable and “releasable” from the BLM.

LV is land constrained in the east and west of the city due to mountains. The land and developments left west of 215 on the east part (Summerlin) is going to go for a huge premium. Those large tracts of land near downtown Summerlin will likely have an entry point of 800k plus upgrades. Mesa ridge comes to mind.


There is not much land on the east side you can develop due to the mountains. If you go northwest, Nellis prevents any significant development.

North Vegas has some growth left, west of the 15 to Aliante.

Northwest can expand only so much, there is land up there but is going to become a situation where it’s going to be too far out - connecting to water infrastructure and in general do people want to live that far from the strip, the airport, etc. Skye Canyon is pretty far out as it is. I can only imagine how much further it would feel beyond that.

South has some room to grow, but the challenge will be connecting these homes to a viable highway. Southwest is already mildly congested during the mornings and afternoons and will only get worse, ( comparable to suburbs in Seattle, DC, Boston, etc)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fox...15b30.amp.html

Southern areas off the 15 can be developed but again, your starting to get the same issues you have in the NW.

The developers need the BLM to keep selling land - the real issue is going to be being able to build on those parcels at a price people are willing to buy? Excluding Summerlin, where the location and land are going to be desirable for some.

Builders are not dumb, they are going to start building more dense once it makes financial sense. Small pockets of land near Summerlin are now condos and townhomes. Where a few years ago that land could have been a small strip mall - it’s more valuable as dense housing.

In summary: The supply of quality (close to highways and central areas) new housing at a price close to the median is getting much smaller and will only continue to get smaller.

[luckydogg]

In the next recession (whenever that may come) even if the real estate market falls again, I don't think it will be anything like before.

People are still going to be fleeing California, younger people will still be moving to growing metro areas to find job opportunities, and Vegas will continue to expand and diversify it's economy. That was the trend before, and trends like that don't just suddenly reverse themselves because of a recession. Or even a crash as we now know.

And unlike before the crash we now even have a new job class of people called Youtube Influencers, Instagram Thought Leaders, Social Media Lifestyle Curators, etc., to help sell the coveted Las Vegas Instagram Selfie Photo Opp dream. Good Times are coming folks, hold on to your britches!

[lvmensch]

I do not see any kind of break in the immediate future. You simply cannot compare it to the 2004 runup. We simply do not have that kind of market.

I do not see any real shortage of land. The county is still pretty open. I would think we may eventually add another million but after that we need a water solution. That may well be possible...funding RO plants in S. CA or elsewhere in return for a bigger Colorado share.

I expect some density increase or at least fill in of the numerous open holes in the city. But I think the sprawl will remain the pattern. And we may have an interesting cusp. The autonomous vehicle may very well cause vast social fabric changes. I do not think we in the least understand all the implications if they can actually get it to work.

[Jeers McGee]

Resort World job makeup. One CEO, 4,000 maids. In a nutShell thatS Vegas baby.

I love Vegas. Got major assetS there. Not a hater.

[ddrhazy]

Robotaxis are snake oil. It'll be decades before they can work out the kinks.

[Jeers McGee]

Hate Vegas taxis. Had united air coupon from mcCarran to Southpoint. Foreign cabbie said he wanted good tip. I gave $5.00 . Didnt change amount due to his odor or offensiveness. Just wanted out.....lol.

United gave me $700 for the bump thing. Win some u lose some.