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Old 07-20-2019, 04:43 AM
 
630 posts, read 450,904 times
Reputation: 851

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Old 07-20-2019, 07:16 AM
 
126 posts, read 22,698 times
Reputation: 55
Howard Hughes n Caesar's say its OveR. It's gonna be a debacle.
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Old 07-20-2019, 07:26 AM
 
Location: Lone Mountain for good
398 posts, read 238,046 times
Reputation: 585
Just saw a real estate report on the local news saying things are solid and the next year they are expecting values go continue to grow. Maybe not at the 10% like the last couple of years.
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Old 07-20-2019, 03:08 PM
 
Location: Viva Las Vegas bound!
2,810 posts, read 2,131,069 times
Reputation: 2372
It still has some ways to go. Unemployment is down. Interest rates are being cut. Consumer confidence is high even though it dropped in June. People are more likely to take out loans when this happens. It also depends on the election. Trump will probably be reelected. The rich tax cuts will repeat.

Opinions differ on when something will happen. Some say we're at least two-three years out from a bust. Others say we'll know by summer of 2020. While others say that we're at the end of an extended boom period, longest running bull market in history, and that the start of the recession is already here. They can only predict a few months out with any certainty.
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Old 07-20-2019, 03:45 PM
 
Location: WA
76 posts, read 40,042 times
Reputation: 72
For those who were in Vegas during the 2007-2008 crash, what happened to the businesses and casinos?


Did you notice small businesses and casinos closing down? Or did they all hung in there and weathered the storm?
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Old 07-20-2019, 04:56 PM
 
36 posts, read 10,617 times
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Housing (Real Estate) is one of the most simple markets to understand.

Net migration into Las Vegas continues to increase YoY and there is a finite supply of (usable/buildable/desirable) land here. Within that, you have most land sold to large developers who then parcel out neighborhoods and build individual homes. That is a micro oligopoly that controls the prices to a certain degree.

Prices are a function of the elasticity of the demand of houses in relationship to the supply
of houses.

People who own houses are compelled to sell for various reasons, but if they sell they either are back into the market for buying at a higher price or renting. Rents are increasing faster than home prices;

https://news3lv.com/news/local/las-v...me-values-drop

Las Vegas has a large population of baby boomers who by in large are moving here to age in place;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...pulations/amp/

Diversification of the Las Vegas economy since 2009 and people working remotely means more people will continue to move
Here for tax and business purposes.

So on the supply side, there won’t be enough to meet demand AT the prices individuals want. The other factor to consider is that landlords own a ton of houses here.

However, large companies are buying homes for investment purposes.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...un-supply/amp/

Do I see prices growing 10% indefinitely? No. Do I see a crash, No.
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Old 07-20-2019, 04:59 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas
3,586 posts, read 5,756,075 times
Reputation: 4263
There is no reason to expect anything like what came before...things may slow down at some point but people won't have the subprime mortgage realities to deal with which were a major factor in the implosion of the housing market.

With that being said after witnessing what happened before I would be leary investing in ANY housing market when prices are inflated. Right now I don't think prices are ridiculously high as much as simply recovered to about where they should be.
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Old 07-20-2019, 05:20 PM
 
159 posts, read 77,592 times
Reputation: 440
According to this article, LV is currently in the top 10 cities for where millennials are moving to in the US. Then you have all the people fleeing California due to the high cost. LV is in huge demand and not sure this is going to change anytime soon.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mille...141638782.html
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Old 07-20-2019, 05:41 PM
 
2,489 posts, read 2,451,951 times
Reputation: 1594
Probably we've plateaued. Enjoy the stability for now.
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Old 07-20-2019, 05:57 PM
 
Location: Portland, OR
5,667 posts, read 5,950,072 times
Reputation: 6511
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dom Cobb View Post
Housing (Real Estate) is one of the most simple markets to understand.

Net migration into Las Vegas continues to increase YoY and there is a finite supply of (usable/buildable/desirable) land here. Within that, you have most land sold to large developers who then parcel out neighborhoods and build individual homes. That is a micro oligopoly that controls the prices to a certain degree.

Prices are a function of the elasticity of the demand of houses in relationship to the supply
of houses.

People who own houses are compelled to sell for various reasons, but if they sell they either are back into the market for buying at a higher price or renting. Rents are increasing faster than home prices;

https://news3lv.com/news/local/las-v...me-values-drop

Las Vegas has a large population of baby boomers who by in large are moving here to age in place;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...pulations/amp/

Diversification of the Las Vegas economy since 2009 and people working remotely means more people will continue to move
Here for tax and business purposes.

So on the supply side, there wonít be enough to meet demand AT the prices individuals want. The other factor to consider is that landlords own a ton of houses here.

However, large companies are buying homes for investment purposes.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...un-supply/amp/

Do I see prices growing 10% indefinitely? No. Do I see a crash, No.
Yeah good analysis, I agree. The mistake some locals make - and I know I take heat for saying this - is the assumption that thereís not a significant portion of people moving to Vegas who donít care about the local economy and donít rely upon it. Both of my aunts and both of my uncles were retired, they had pensions or later social security and in some cases multiple out of state rental properties providing income. No Vegas jobs. My other friend who moved to Vegas bought a $1 million home in Summerlin (coming like so many from Los Angeles) and put $500,000 into the remodel. He runs a conservative Internet source and makes his money nationwide, independent of the local economy. My Long Beach real state agent is nearing retirement and her husband and her are moving to Vegas because their money goes further. Both have a good deal of money saved from a lifetime of success in SoCal. I run a company thatís nationwide and independent of any local economics - we have shot in 42 states plus DC. That means everyone I personally know doesnít rely on anything about the median income in Vegas or whatever the economy is doing at a micro level.

As long as Vegas remains a good buy for many people in expensive West Coast cities, the housing market will be robust. Will there be some downturns? Of course, thatís the nature of economics really. Itís not a straight line up no matter what market segment. But the trend will be up.

As it stands now I think the next few years are going to be mundane in most markets, maybe 1-4% gains that basically match inflation and not much better than that. But a stable market will be fine and wonít hurt anyone, it just wonít make your house a big winner as an investment. My win isnít hoping my house appreciates, itís saving on property taxes and income taxes from where I came while also having a luxury home compared to an average suburban home. Iím just basically getting a lot more for my money, so I didnít expect when I bought it was a particularly good or bad time to buy. Neutral, really.

I do think youíre going to continue to see something in every major city that will tick off the liberals, though. They keep showing Millennials want to live in big cities and have an active urban lifestyle. The reality is cities are not for poor people. Theyíre for middle class to upper middle class. Small towns and mid-level cities (200,000 people or so) are more friendly for those without much money and a low income. If everyone wants to live in a big city, itís going to be expensive to do so or other sacrifices have to be made - roommates, smaller houses, townhomes, more meager accommodations. Itís just the reality of market forces.
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