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Old Yesterday, 01:58 PM
 
2,474 posts, read 631,741 times
Reputation: 4295

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
If you noticed, on the national poll the CD members voted that LAS VEGAS would be the hardest hit by a recession.
Soooo.... a bunch of people who do not live in Las Vegas and who do not understand the Las Vegas economy think Las Vegas would be hardest hit. Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight.


What if there is no "next recession" in our lifetimes?


Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
I am VERY concerned about buying a house in Vegas right now because the last time prices were this high it was right before a huge recession. I would not like to buy a house and then 2 years later it's only worth half of what I paid for it. IS that a fair concern? Well it certainly is not an unfounded concern. Especially when this very same thing just occurred 10 years ago. BTW Im not from Texas I lived in Phoenix before that. I came here 11 years ago because of the last recession. Phoenix took a huge hit during the last recession.
OK, taking you at your word.

Economists have correctly forecasted 9 of the past 5 recessions. It turns out it is always very difficult to forecast these things. There is no way to know if there will be either a national or a local recession, and when it will likely occur.

My personal guess is the next recession -- IF it happens -- will likely hit hardest in the semi-rural areas of the country - smallish cities in this 25K to 100K population range.
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Old Yesterday, 02:06 PM
 
Location: Pahrump, NV
2,225 posts, read 3,017,002 times
Reputation: 1989
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
My personal guess is the next recession -- IF it happens -- will likely hit hardest in the semi-rural areas of the country - smallish cities in this 25K to 100K population range.

already happened - we had close to 20% unemployment rate when the last one hit. those of us that commuted into vegas felt the pain just like you did.
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Old Yesterday, 02:48 PM
 
181 posts, read 87,045 times
Reputation: 478
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
I am VERY concerned about buying a house in Vegas right now because the last time prices were this high it was right before a huge recession.
Well if you like to listen to the "experts", here you go. According to the "geniuses" at Corelogic, the Las Vegas market (which is still below it's highs of the bubble), is overvalued.

BUT, the good news from those same people at Corelogic is that some parts of the Bay Area - where crack houses in Oakland sell for $900k - is undervalued!

According to Corelogic:

Quote:
An analysis of historic and current income and housing trends by real estate data firm CoreLogic found the pricey markets in San Mateo, San Francisco and Marin counties are, by some measures, under-valued.
And....
Quote:
Several popular escapes for Bay Area ex-pats — including Las Vegas, Denver, and the Washington, D.C. metro — are seen as overvalued.
So, if you're that scared of Las Vegas you can always follow Corlogic's wisdom and avoid Las Vegas' insanely priced real estate like the plague, and instead scoop up a little 1950's 1 bedroom/1 bath fixer upper in Santa Clara for a bargain basement priced $1.5 million. Maybe by next year it will rise to "fair value" at who knows.... $3.6 million? Or maybe even $5.8 million?? Remember, those multi-million dollar values are supported by tech workers "high" salaries of $150k. Sure those homes may cost 10, 15 or 20 times the median tech worker salary, but hey who cares about pesky details like that when you're a "highly paid" Facebook engineer renting the windowless musty basement of someone's house for $4k per month??

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/08/...-places-maybe/

Of course, you could just use some common sense when making decisions based on your own financial situation and ability to handle a financial setback if the economy does tank at some point in the future, but why do that when you can listen to the experts at Corelogic or an anonymous poll on CD instead?

Last edited by luckydogg; Yesterday at 03:02 PM..
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Old Yesterday, 03:12 PM
 
Location: Aliante
2,877 posts, read 2,170,485 times
Reputation: 2419
Before the stock market took this last dip they said days prior to it that there was a 1 in 3 chance we're going to have a recession in the next 1-3 years. It was attributed to Trump's tinkering with tariffs by economists. We've known this for months even though 5 time bankrupt and 12,000 documented lie telling Trump gaslights his base and says it's the media causing the recession so he won't get re-elected and they better elect him or they'll see the worst recession ever.

We're also over due for a recession even by the average of the boom bust cycle. In this regards it doesn't matter who gets elected a recession is happening. I posted an article with the five indicators of a recession and we had 3 out of 5 with the other two on the border, and when the yield curve inverses it's an average of 22 months until a recession is formally declared.

All I know is it won't affect me too much. In a lot of ways it will be better as we can afford more house for the money. Maybe it will affect friends and family though. Less people will travel to Las Vegas affecting the tourism economy. I know that's what happened last time.

OP you won't get much help on this forum as of late there a lot of people here that get triggered and are in denial any time someone posts something related to this. Even if it's benign like the shrinking middle class thread I posted. There's no point in debating them and getting dogpiled and $hit on. They won't look at your facts as they just want to get in digs, deflect and hear themselves talk. Save your time and energy for other things.
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Old Yesterday, 03:45 PM
 
Location: Southern Highlands
1,412 posts, read 895,968 times
Reputation: 1187
Every single time there is yield curve inversion there is a recession within the next ten years.
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Old Yesterday, 05:15 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
149 posts, read 59,365 times
Reputation: 143
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) was published just about a month ago on 7/18/2019. It reports the LEI for June 2019 to 111.5, down from the May figure of 111.8. This was the first decline in a year, although still quite positive. The strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators are now more balanced.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, increased in June. It rose 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate) between December 2018 and June 2019. Three out of four components have advanced over the past six months. The lagging economic index increased, and at a faster rate than the CEI. As a result, the coincident-to-lagging ratio declined in June. Real GDP expanded at a 3.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter, after increasing 2.2 percent (annual rate) in the last quarter of 2018.

It is not all unicorns & rainbows, of course, but on balance I'm more optimistic than pessimistic.

There is a tug-of-war between the US & China (perhaps a game of chicken); I suspect there will be a resolution next year in plenty of time for the national election.

There is a tug-of-war between the White House & The Fed. The Fed seems to be ignoring the White House.

There is a game of chicken between The Fed & the Stock Market. We'll see who blinks first.
I honestly think it will be the stock market, but that's just a gut feeling. I think the Fed is a little shellshocked at certain metrics reacting the way they are despite rate cuts. I think the QE that was done for all those years put the system on tilt.

Now that tariffs have had some more time to materialize, I think what I'm looking at most is the next set of employment numbers. From what I was reading on some supply chain pieces, big biz has been able to eat most of those tariff costs up to this point without having to pass it on to consumers. If that changes, and/or they're forced to start cutting workforce to keep prices stable, I think we're going to be in trouble.

The Fed cutting rates should have been a positive but Americans are already sitting on a lot of debt. At some point they just can't keep consuming at the same rate. About the only people that have been able to take advantage are those that are well off or very frugal with their money. I've seen refinance numbers start to take off again, for example. The problem with that is those groups aren't often big consumers... that's why they have the money to take advantage in the first place. They're more smart consumers instead of over consumers like your average American that doesn't have a pot to **** in.
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Old Yesterday, 05:54 PM
 
Location: Portland, OR
5,821 posts, read 6,041,936 times
Reputation: 6702
I would love to see the stock market take a dive personally. I have zero dollars invested right now and have no intention of buying until prices are more favorable. It’ll cool down to some extent whether that’s DOW 20,000 or 18,000, then I’ll be happy to enter and see what happens. If it keeps going down that’s ok too, I’ll be happy I got a discount at least and it’ll be for the long haul. I just don’t make a habit of buying anything at the peak price lol.

Who knows what will cause the next recession but it won’t be housing. Housing isn’t overvalued, isn’t in a bubble, and the only problem I can see is certain regional housing is highly dependent on the local economy remaining strong, like SF and LA for instance. Vegas is not. It’s cheap for anyone with money and that’s a LOT of people who enjoy great entertainment and weather plus no state income taxes. Maybe starter homes could take a hit but nothing like we saw a decade ago. It has taken this long for the market to recover fully and that doesn’t make it a bubble - it’s called inflation. Housing is an appreciating asset. Always has been, always will be. It will go steadily up but it will also have peaks and valleys like anything else.
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Old Yesterday, 05:56 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
1,361 posts, read 1,309,578 times
Reputation: 1435
It's "fare", not "fair", but I digress.


Climbing home prices and increasing demand here are driven in part by an influx of Californians who can't afford the insane prices to stay where they are. What I don't see this time is lenders fixing the rules so that people buy more home than they can afford - a key factor in the market collapse years before.
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Old Yesterday, 07:59 PM
 
Location: Southern Highlands
1,412 posts, read 895,968 times
Reputation: 1187
Quote:
Housing is an appreciating asset. Always has been, always will be.
Except when it isn't (2008). But I get your point. Everyone needs to live somewhere and the long term trend for real estate is positive.
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Old Yesterday, 10:32 PM
 
120 posts, read 77,027 times
Reputation: 91
If someone is so concerned, ill buy their house now for 50% of current value. Beats the 30% I bought houses for in 2009. Someone is drinking too much MSNBC.
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