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Old Yesterday, 05:40 AM
 
Location: Houston, Tx
899 posts, read 2,563,962 times
Reputation: 796

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Here we go again. It looks like another recession is on it's way. Vegas was hit very hard during the last recession. I see a lot of the same elements in place once again today just like they were 12 years ago when the last recession hit. Vegas once again has an overpriced housing market and still hasn't diversified away from tourism and gambling.
If you have lived in Vegas for a while you know what happened last time. What will be different this time?
Is history going to repeat its self?
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Old Yesterday, 06:26 AM
 
56 posts, read 20,612 times
Reputation: 129
That is a good question. We moved from the Kerrville, Tx. area in 2017 and bought in a 55+ community here in Vegas. The 55+ homes held their value a little better than other areas. During the height of the recession, we were thinking of buying a property in Vegas as an investment, as they were giving them away, short sales and foreclosures were every other listing.
I was not yet 55 but could have bought from the builder at 50. I thought I will wait 2 years and save some money buying from an individual. It cost me 40,000 more waiting and the house was not brand new but in the same community.
If you lose your job, it is hard to make the mortgage, but just because your house may temporarily lose value, selling for a loss is not wise, unless you have no choice. I'm retired and my spouse still works as an RN, so pretty secure, as long as no health problems arise.
I don't gamble, but the move to Vegas was a gamble and I would say a win, as 2 years in we love this place more every day. We bought at 255,000 and houses on the same street, the same model as ours are selling for 325-349. If you are retired and buy in a gated-guarded community you have little worries.
We would have made money buying a depressed property while we waited to move here, but then we would have had the problems of renters or squatters, repairs and upkeep and I did not want those headaches. I'm sure there will be another recession, but you have to be ready and not live beyond your means.
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Old Yesterday, 06:50 AM
 
2,585 posts, read 2,488,743 times
Reputation: 1611
History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.
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Old Yesterday, 07:10 AM
 
Location: North Las Vegas
31 posts, read 34,805 times
Reputation: 64
35 years resident, Vegas probably won’t ever be like it was through the 80’s and 90’s balls out like it was. Damn good times ! But obviously we will survive. And I totally agree Chappy, if you live within your means you’d be fine. Very good advice.
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Old Yesterday, 07:20 AM
 
180 posts, read 86,434 times
Reputation: 473
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
Here we go again. It looks like another recession is on it's way.
Based on what? The yield curve? The bond market alone doesn't make a recession, the economy itself needs to tank which isn't happening. You're a real estate agent? Are you seeing part time uber drivers and dog walkers buying multiple properties with zero down? I doubt it. That was the kind of insanity that caused the housing market to crash before.
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Old Yesterday, 07:33 AM
 
Location: Henderson, NV
897 posts, read 598,340 times
Reputation: 2358
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
Here we go again. It looks like another recession is on it's way. Vegas was hit very hard during the last recession. I see a lot of the same elements in place once again today just like they were 12 years ago when the last recession hit. Vegas once again has an overpriced housing market and still hasn't diversified away from tourism and gambling.
If you have lived in Vegas for a while you know what happened last time. What will be different this time?
Is history going to repeat its self?
Definitely stay away.
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Old Yesterday, 07:51 AM
 
606 posts, read 153,283 times
Reputation: 247
Quote:
Originally Posted by luckydogg View Post
Based on what? The yield curve? The bond market alone doesn't make a recession, the economy itself needs to tank which isn't happening. You're a real estate agent? Are you seeing part time uber drivers and dog walkers buying multiple properties with zero down? I doubt it. That was the kind of insanity that caused the housing market to crash before.
Based on the lefty "news" media promoting a recession. Trump haters are going so far as to try and promote a bad economy, when in fact the economy has never been better.
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Old Yesterday, 08:24 AM
 
2,458 posts, read 627,547 times
Reputation: 4268
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
Here we go again. It looks like another recession is on it's way.
Actually, the US Economy is in pretty good shape. The rest of the world, not so much.

US employment is up. Wages are up. Disposable income is up. Consumer spending is up. Inflation as measured by the CPI, the GDP deflator, the chain-weighted CPI, or even the trendy personal-consumption expenditures index is low -- about 2% -- and essentially all economists agree that is overstated because of a known bias in official numbers; as Alan Greenspan said in a talk at Wharton a couple months ago, "We have a problem actually measuring inflation."

The single largest impediment to continued business expansion is lack of quality labor. More people are retiring (and retiring early because they've achieved a target level of affluence) which means productive, talented people are leaving the workforce -- and the bench depth isn't as deep as we'd like.

The primary macroeconomic determinants of housing demand include employment (up), mortgage interest rates (down), and family formation (up, when counted correctly). All residential real estate is local, of course; there are many places where starter homes are in short supply, so that is a negative.

Another negative is housing policy schizophrenia. For example, in a suburb of LA, a developer wishes to build a large number of starter homes (mostly condos & townhouses); housing advocates are waving the flag "yes" while some environmental groups such as the National Resource Defense Council are threatening litigation because the suburb is too far from employment centers and hence will entail commute times greater than 1 hr to jobs and hence violates official State policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Such policy schizophrenia is a negative on home building, which constricts supply and reduces construction jobs.

Some of the more pessimistic economists are forecasting around a 40% chance of a recession in the next 2 years. That's a 60% chance of NO recession in the next 2 years.

Last edited by RationalExpectations; Yesterday at 09:20 AM..
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Old Yesterday, 08:29 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
144 posts, read 58,851 times
Reputation: 134
Quote:
Originally Posted by luckydogg View Post
Based on what? The yield curve? The bond market alone doesn't make a recession, the economy itself needs to tank which isn't happening. You're a real estate agent? Are you seeing part time uber drivers and dog walkers buying multiple properties with zero down? I doubt it. That was the kind of insanity that caused the housing market to crash before.
This time around it won't be caused by the housing bubble. Consumer debt numbers in delinquent student and auto loans continue to jump -- the NY Fed just released a piece on this. Other economic indicators also point that way which is odd because a lot of other indicators show really good. To me, that means we're either seeing some fudging of numbers somewhere or there just may be an day -- a calm before the storm kind of thing.

The bigger thing I'm seeing from what I've been reading is this may be a global recession because of how bad many other bigger nations are doing. China, Germany, UK, Mexico and several others are all reporting economic issues. I didn't realize how bad Germany was until I read a pretty lengthy piece on them earlier this week. Then you pull back the cover and realize they were heavily reliant upon China, who had just unrealistic GDP growth for a decade. Throw in our tariffs and you're starting serious freaking out in various industries -- American farmers are getting more and more vocal, for example.

If you're on Reddit, there are several economics channels that have some great articles posted. All that being said, those that manager their money well should be fine as always.
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Old Yesterday, 08:37 AM
 
Location: Southern Highlands
1,410 posts, read 894,923 times
Reputation: 1187
There will be a short period of uncertainty while the world resets its trading relationship with China.
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