[Chest Rockwell]

I doubt it, but this RJ columnist makes an interesting case.

Is Twilight for Suburbia Looming?

[radraja]

I doubt it too..

The thing is - the economy isn't going to stay bad forever. The housing mess is expected to resolve by the end of 2009. Everything is going to bounce back eventually.

I don't think people would permanently give up their yards, quality schools, and luxe suburban lifestyles.

[jpk]

Economics will determine the direction. If I had to guess, the rate of suburban sprawl will slow as high gas prices and depressed housing prices make it attractive to stay in urban or nearby suburban neighborhoods. Family sizes are trending smaller now, making smaller homes found in urban areas more practical than they were in the past. The sprawl of suburbs into rural areas will not stop completely though, as there will always be people who require larger homes and can't pay the premium of being in an urban location.

[radraja]

Gas is a factor, but I've read that there's actually enough oil on the earth to last for thousands and thousands of years. Now it's only a matter of getting the permission and equipment to harvest it.

I still can't imagine this Hollywood-following, glamour-obsessed society changing their mindsets to prefer smaller homes in the inner-city. It just doesn't seem likely.

[BobKovacs]

It's actually kinda funny that they'd write on this subject with regard to Las Vegas, considering it doesn't really have the urban/suburban/exurban thing that so many other cities do. Think about it- from the farthest suburbs out in the NW on 95 to the opposite end of Henderson is what- 30 miles? In major metropolitan areas like Atlanta, Houston, etc., it's not unusual for the suburbs to stretch 30, 40 or even 50 miles in all directions from the central city- more than double the radius of LV. Take an area like NYC, and you're talking about people who live in NE Pennsylvania, and will commute 2+ hours/75 miles to get into NYC- same for the LA area. By comparison, LV hasn't even begun to sprawl.

[Chest Rockwell]

If you consider the ratio of population to size, there is quite a bit of sprawl here. If everyone required the same amount of land and the population reaches 5 million people, we could be encroaching on California. Also, in Las Vegas there is almost zero undeveloped land between downtown and the furthest houses. In many other cities, there is undeveloped space between cities and suburban towns, making the metro area larger geographically.

The one thing that is very strange about Las Vegas is that people are willing to pay more or equal money for an 1100 sq ft patio home with no parking or yard outside the beltway than a 2000 sq ft home in the central city that sits on a 5000 sq ft lot. Of course, these homes are newer, but they won't always be new. If the columnist's theory is correct and crime, decay and poverty becomes equal or greater outside the beltway, these prices will have to shift.