[ClarkGrisowld]

Originally Posted by WildWestDude

After years of record profits, now the casinos are back to reality.
If they did not rip off people so much during these last "good" years, perhaps more would consider to make it out here once again.

I hadn't thought about it from that perspective. More capacity means lower room rates but more people to gamble and spend on retail, food and other entertainment. So very possible RevPar goes down in the future, but revenue increases in other areas more than offset that.

But airlines are a huge problem, and gas in general. I don't see prices coming down any time soon. So tough to say how the people will get here.

[Frisco Franko]

First National Bank of Nevada Melts!


FDIC: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporationbank/individual/failed/fnbnv.html -

Mutual Of Omaha Bank Takes Over 2 Banks - Money News Story - KVVU Las Vegas -

Mutual of Omaha Bank to Acquire Deposits of Failed First National Bank - MarketWatch

[colormegreen]

What is the general feeling among Vegas residents? Does it feel like things are going to get worse or are you just waiting it out and see what happens in the fall when things cool off (weather wise)?

[sheriff]

Originally Posted by ClarkGrisowld

Drop was down only 1%, but hold was down about 20%. RevPar was down 3% and slot handle was down @ 4.5%. But the big driver was a decrease in the hold percentage which, naturally, varies. Basically, Wynn's Las Vegas business is down about 3% ignoring the variance in win. Hardly catastrophic. Other operators, however, have not faired as well.

Industry-wide, a table game win percentage of 18% is considered the high end, 10% the low end. wynn LV held 20% the past quarter, and an amazing 24% the quarter before that. Hardly catastrophic thanks to Macau, and four gaming concessions wynn still holds. Two quarters ago, he was able to sell one for $900mil, which went straight to the bottom line--------the ONLY reason they showed a profit at all. By the way wynn's net profit margin was an unheard of 32.96% for the most recent quarter. Macau is the golden goose.

[ClarkGrisowld]

Originally Posted by sheriff

Industry-wide, a table game win percentage of 18% is considered the high end, 10% the low end. wynn LV held 20% the past quarter, and an amazing 24% the quarter before that. Hardly catastrophic thanks to Macau, and four gaming concessions wynn still holds. Two quarters ago, he was able to sell one for $900mil, which went straight to the bottom line--------the ONLY reason they showed a profit at all. By the way wynn's net profit margin was an unheard of 32.96% for the most recent quarter. Macau is the golden goose.

Wynn has a higher-end clientele. Look it up, 20% is below average hold (for Vegas) for them. Hold was 19.9% in Q1, and 23.5%, 26.4%,24.2% , and 27.6% in 2007. They report their average expected hold of being in a range of 21-24%. The bottom line is their Vegas business was off about 3%.

Not that it matters much, but they sold the concession over 2 years ago - not 2 quarters ago. It's not the only reason they made a profit that year because if you want to exclude that then you should exclude the development (along with financing costs) and pre-opening expense. 2 years ago, before the sale of the subconcession, Wynn LV made money. Their development ops in Macao is what swung them into the red, if you ignore the subconcession for Macao they sold.

Wynn's Vegas property is and has done very, very well. It's business is down a bit, but nearly bad as a lot of other places. Automotive, airlines, financial services, real estate and construction - a pretty good chunk of the economy - are all industries doing a lot worse than LV's gaming business.

[AA702]

Originally Posted by ClarkGrisowld

Wynn has a higher-end clientele. Look it up, 20% is below average hold (for Vegas) for them. Hold was 19.9% in Q1, and 23.5%, 26.4%,24.2% , and 27.6% in 2007. They report their average expected hold of being in a range of 21-24%. The bottom line is their Vegas business was off about 3%.

Not that it matters much, but they sold the concession over 2 years ago - not 2 quarters ago. It's not the only reason they made a profit that year because if you want to exclude that then you should exclude the development (along with financing costs) and pre-opening expense. 2 years ago, before the sale of the subconcession, Wynn LV made money. Their development ops in Macao is what swung them into the red, if you ignore the subconcession for Macao they sold.

Wynn's Vegas property is and has done very, very well. It's business is down a bit, but nearly bad as a lot of other places. Automotive, airlines, financial services, real estate and construction - a pretty good chunk of the economy - are all industries doing a lot worse than LV's gaming business.

You can add Technology Comapnies to that list. Intel, Texas Instruments, Sun Micro system, Yahoo..etc.. they are all down..

[ClarkGrisowld]

Originally Posted by AA702

You can add Technology Comapnies to that list. Intel, Texas Instruments, Sun Micro system, Yahoo..etc.. they are all down..

Yeah, other industries are reporting LOSSES, not just a reduction in profits like the gaming companies.

[sheriff]

Originally Posted by ClarkGrisowld

Wynn has a higher-end clientele. Look it up, 20% is below average hold (for Vegas) for them. Hold was 19.9% in Q1, and 23.5%, 26.4%,24.2% , and 27.6% in 2007. They report their average expected hold of being in a range of 21-24%. The bottom line is their Vegas business was off about 3%.

Not that it matters much, but they sold the concession over 2 years ago - not 2 quarters ago. It's not the only reason they made a profit that year because if you want to exclude that then you should exclude the development (along with financing costs) and pre-opening expense. 2 years ago, before the sale of the subconcession, Wynn LV made money. Their development ops in Macao is what swung them into the red, if you ignore the subconcession for Macao they sold.

Wynn's Vegas property is and has done very, very well. It's business is down a bit, but nearly bad as a lot of other places. Automotive, airlines, financial services, real estate and construction - a pretty good chunk of the economy - are all industries doing a lot worse than LV's gaming business.

The average table game win % is @ 13%. 18% is excellent, and 24% is totally out of whack. Here you go: Gaming Revenue Report Index (http://gaming.nv.gov/gaming_revenue_rpt.htm - broken link)

[ClarkGrisowld]

Originally Posted by sheriff

The average table game win % is @ 13%. 18% is excellent, and 24% is totally out of whack. Here you go: Gaming Revenue Report Index (http://gaming.nv.gov/gaming_revenue_rpt.htm - broken link)

I know what the average is. You don't know what you are talking about. Wynn is not your average Strip hotel. It has a higher-end clientele and has a higher expected hold. I didn't make up the numbers I listed as the hold for their past 6 quarters - all above 18%, by the way, and averaging darn close to 24% over the last 6 quarters.

But if you don't believe me, go right to their 10K and read it for yourself. Their average expected hold is 21-24%.

We can argue over hold percentages, but it really is irrelevant to the point you were trying to make. The indicator for business health is RevPar and gaming volume, ignoring the natural variation in hold (for Wynn, but still well above the Strip average). The fact remains volume and RevPar was only down about 3%.

If you wanted to support your point, you might argue a shift in clientele explaining two quarters of below average hold, but two quarters isn't really sufficient data to draw such a conclusion.

[sheriff]

Table games are table games-------over a quarter's time, the win percentage built-in does not change. The only factor that can drastically change the hold is for a whale to win or lose a large amount,and can dramitically change the win %----especially if the casino does not get play from a large number of premium players. For any casino to hold 24% in a quarter means they have beaten a whale or two out of millions, but eventually this tide will turn, and in the long run the win % will end up at @ 13%. Only 3-4 joints will let players wager in the $100k and up range per hand.