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Old 10-20-2009, 08:14 PM
 
106 posts, read 222,775 times
Reputation: 51

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Quote:
Originally Posted by pommysmommy View Post
I realize that and I am not shopping for a retirement home right now because of the crazy market in Las Vegas. Las Vegas is where we will land but I am in the wait and see mode right now.

Just wait a couple of years. Vegas will be like Detroit!!! Banks will be giving away homes for a dollar.
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Old 10-20-2009, 08:19 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,187,029 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by armyjimb View Post
Just wait a couple of years. Vegas will be like Detroit!!! Banks will be giving away homes for a dollar.
Hey be nice. Remember that the Inland Empire is pretty consistently worse than Las Vegas and twice as big. If us poor Vegas are going to end up in our valueless hovels you Californians are going to have to subsidize the IE to get it to worthless.
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Old 10-20-2009, 11:13 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,447,634 times
Reputation: 498
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
I believe you heard someone say that.

It could happen.

We could also be hit by a meteorite and vaporized.

You need to know the probability of the event.

Neither are likely.
Would you say it has a higher or lower probability of occurring than the following event?
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt on 12/4/2008
YOu are being far to broad in your definition of a bad year. We could very easily have a bad year with a 10% increase in the cost of housing. In fact I would think it has a significant probabliity.
12/2008 SFR median price - $175K
9/2009 SFR median price - $138K
(-21%)
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Old 10-21-2009, 02:30 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,187,029 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
Would you say it has a higher or lower probability of occurring than the following event?

12/2008 SFR median price - $175K
9/2009 SFR median price - $138K
(-21%)
The probability of what actually happened over that period was vanishingly small. But it happened anyway. Nice thing about statistics...they cover all cases.

Find contemporaneous projections of what actually happened. Illustrates the point. I do know of a projection that accurately forsaw the securitization melt down...but I know of none that got the actual LV style mortgage crisis.
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Old 10-21-2009, 06:08 AM
 
9,855 posts, read 10,409,326 times
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YouTube - The Housing Collapse of 2010 Will Be Worse Than 2008 This is eye opening.
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Old 10-21-2009, 07:54 AM
 
11,175 posts, read 16,008,375 times
Reputation: 29925
That 60 minutes story was from December 2008, when the economy looked like it was going to fall off a cliff and we were headed toward another Great Depression. I'd be interested to know what that analyst's thoughts are today.

Coincidentally, a housing analyst was on CNBC just this morning stating that the housing market has bottomed. Here is a link to the story and the video:

Housing Market Has Bottomed, Banking Analyst Bove Says - CNBC Stock Blog - CNBC.com#

Now, I don't know who is right, but it is somewhat comforting to know that not everyone thinks that housing is going to go bust again.
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Old 10-21-2009, 09:02 AM
 
23 posts, read 103,705 times
Reputation: 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadManofBethesda View Post
That 60 minutes story was from December 2008, when the economy looked like it was going to fall off a cliff and we were headed toward another Great Depression. I'd be interested to know what that analyst's thoughts are today.

Coincidentally, a housing analyst was on CNBC just this morning stating that the housing market has bottomed. Here is a link to the story and the video:

Housing Market Has Bottomed, Banking Analyst Bove Says - CNBC Stock Blog - CNBC.com#

Now, I don't know who is right, but it is somewhat comforting to know that not everyone thinks that housing is going to go bust again.
According to Tilsons graph, the sub primes have bottomed out as he predicted so at present the housing market has bottomed.

The CNBC analyst failed to address what Tilson is reporting - alt-A and option ARM loans which according to his graph are now re-setting and "will" start the second wave in 2010 or sooner which will create a housing market bottom lower than the present bottom.

Last edited by coldbeer; 10-21-2009 at 09:26 AM..
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Old 10-21-2009, 09:38 AM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,447,634 times
Reputation: 498
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
The probability of what actually happened over that period was vanishingly small. But it happened anyway. Nice thing about statistics...they cover all cases.

Find contemporaneous projections of what actually happened. Illustrates the point. I do know of a projection that accurately forsaw the securitization melt down...but I know of none that got the actual LV style mortgage crisis.
Ah, the good ol' familiar "no one could have seen it coming" refrain.

What exactly was the LV style of mortgage crisis? How did it differ from let's say the Phoenix, Riverside, or Fort Lauderdale style of mortgage crisis?

But back to the original question; what has a higher probability of occurring? This -
Quote:
Originally Posted by pommysmommy
I heard someone say today that home prices in Las Vegas were expected to do drop another 20% next year.
Or this?
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt on 12/4/2008
YOu are being far to broad in your definition of a bad year. We could very easily have a bad year with a 10% increase in the cost of housing. In fact I would think it has a significant probabliity.
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Old 10-21-2009, 11:58 AM
 
549 posts, read 1,379,777 times
Reputation: 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by pommysmommy View Post
I realize that and I am not shopping for a retirement home right now because of the crazy market in Las Vegas. Las Vegas is where we will land but I am in the wait and see mode right now.
I don't want to stay here, but here is where I am, and, I too, am in a hold mode. Will the job last? Will more layoffs come? Will Vegas gaming economy pick up? Too many questions and too many variables at the moment. Worst part is, I just found another rental to move into and fully expect this property to go into foreclosure again! Working on a business plan right now to make money off these 'investors' who walk away and a law to prosecute those that intentionally don't pay and have renters!
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Old 10-21-2009, 01:56 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,187,029 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
Ah, the good ol' familiar "no one could have seen it coming" refrain.

What exactly was the LV style of mortgage crisis? How did it differ from let's say the Phoenix, Riverside, or Fort Lauderdale style of mortgage crisis?
Good old and true refrain. That it has been mentioned before in no way changes its validity.

The situations in Las Vegas and Phoenix and perhaps the Inland Empire were unique. The lenders panicked and drove REOs to over 80% of the market and prices downward at 3 and 4% per month. That happened only in these areas and I don't know enough about the IE to be sure it was the same though it looks similar. May have been similar in FL. Don't follow there well enough to know. Such behavior was not seen in other markets.

Quote:
But back to the original question; what has a higher probability of occurring? This - Or this?
The 20% projection is of course possible but not very probable. We could drop into a true depression and end up with much worse numbers than this. Again unlikely presuming things continue as they are going. But real probabilities...

And there is some probability that the meteorite will happen...

The 2008 quote dealt with a possible outcome which was vastly more likely than what actually occured. It is also moot as the outcome is known and all but the real outcome are eliminated.
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