My advice on Real Estate in Vegas and zillow.com (mortgage, gated)

[EricCartmann]

Use www.zillow.com to see how much the house you are looking at his worth. Zillow is really close to the Comparative Market Analsys that the Real Estate agent gives you. I compared the zilllow Z-estimate price to the CMA's to the houses I was looking at and all houses were comparable in price between the Z-estimates and the CMA.

One house I really liked was asking $420,000, Z-estimate was $350,000 on Zillow.com. Range of that house on zillow was estimated anywhere from 310,000 to 390,000. The house was really nice and was perfect, it had one of those $90,000 backyards with pool. I offered the sellar the absolute top of that range which was $388,000. He rejected it outright and did not even bother to counter me.

I looked at 20 houses, liked 5... 4 of my offers was rejected and one was not even countered. I noticed on Zillow.com some of the houses I was looking went down as high as $4500 this past month. Thats a $4500 drop in one month! That is about 1.2%.

So you can say most sellers are very stubborn and just have no clue about the market condition. My agent felt like I was lowballing. I told her I was fair on that one house with the $90,000 backyard (which she agreed), but on the other houses I was adjusting for market conditions, which was only a 5% drop from the Z-estimate. I told her if I wait the houses will drop anyways. I eventually did come to terms with one house, I liked the view, the guard gated community, and the nice pool

If you can't wait and absolutely have to move in I would just buy new. The Developers don't drop their prices too much but you can negotiate all the upgrades and some of these places will even pay your mortgage for a year. If you set that money aside you you can have a new paid off car too If I did not come to terms with that one house I would have looked in to buying new or just wait for the market to drop. AND YES HOUSING PRICES WILL DROP!

[CHEWY12]

Eric,

did you check the clark county tax assessor's web site along w/zillow?
just curious

chewy12

[EricCartmann]

I did but could not get anything. Always came back "no record"

[olecapt]

Zillow is generally OK for recent tracts. Otherwise it is useless for CMA purposes. It does give a flavor for an area however.

Even in tracts it is generally way low on highly upgraded places and anything out of the ordinary.

If the area is reasonably active the assessors list gives the best view. The problem though is that you need better access than you can get from the public sites.

If the area is not reasonably active neither the assessor or Zillow help. You just have to know what are the roughly equivalent areas to have a shot at reasonable pricing.

Note that there has been only localized price drops in Vegas. Centennial Hills for instance has a large flipper component who are in deep trouble. But note that the drop there is 5% or less and may reflect builder spif corrections rather than real drops. Even those that have gone back to the bank are still holding within 5% of the original builder price.

I continue to project a basically flat year. Slow sales little price motion. I think we will end up where we are +- 5%. And it may just as well go up as down. The buyers are waiting and the sellers are holding...so nothing changes. Been that way now for over 18 months.

Everyone says it can't continue...but it does.

[EricCartmann]

Flat year? you are overly optimistic. There will be at least a 5% drop. How can you say a +5%??? Did you not see the inventory out there?

I guess market can be flat as long as people are willing to hold onto the inventory, but as we know this is very hard to do. It is not like this is one company with huge cash reserves therefore they can afford to sit on the inventory. People have to sell eventually, with less buyers it means they have to drop their prices.

Houses are dropping as we speak.

You also talk of upgrades and say Zillow does not account for this, well Zillow does give a range for the house. If Zillow says house is worth between 310-390 that is quite a big range. If I offer the seller the very top of that range, am I not being fair? If all the houses comparative size houses in the Neighborhood are going for $330, How can a seller expect to get $420 (regardless of upgrades)? You can build a mansion in Watts but it still will only be worth what the houses around it are worth.

[yellowsnow]

I look at Zillow too. I've found it is only accurate on homes that are new or recently reasessed. If someone has owned a home for a while and upgraded it, Zillow doesn't know that.

For example, there is a new home 2 doors down from mine. It is about 4000sf and has an elevator, 1/2 acre, waterfront. Zillow says this home is worth 679K. My home is stone, 3200sf, 1 acre, waterfront. Zillow says my home is worth 220K. Why is mine so low? Because I have owned the home for 12 years and it's never been reasessed. Zillow doesn't know what my home is currently worth.....and neither does the state! The house appraised for twice that 220K in 2000. So, if someone tried to lowball me down to the Zillow price, it's not happening!

Speaking as a buyer, sure I would try it. Wouldn't be the first time I was told NO! I guess if I looked long and hard enough I might be able to find someone willing to settle for that price. I agree the LV market is overpriced. Prices are dropping and those who can will wait it out. Those who have to sell will sell for less. There are plenty of failed listings because people won't budge on the price. People still want to get what they would have gotten in 2004. Back then there was something wrong with the property if it was on the market more than 24 hours. Times have changed! But it is still true that Zillow, quite often, is not giving you an accurate picture.

[EricCartmann]

These are not custom homes. These are all track houses, they sit on 1/4 acre (or less) lots. They are all pretty much the same. There is only so much you can do to a 1/4 acre 3 bedroom home. If Zillow says house is worth between 310-390 you have to use your head about it. If house needs a lot of work, you have to say it is worth $310k, if the house is clean and just average you have to say house is worth $350k. If house has a nice big pool, tons of upgrades inside the house, maybe you offer at the absolute upper end, $390k.

You can upgrade a Honda all you want but at the end of the day it is still a Honda.

[airics]

ok so i have three houses, checked them on zillow,,,, house 1 cleveland ohio value on zillow is 160k, there hasnt been a house that cheap in my division in over 10 yrs.. avg sale price around 250 but i understand that maybe my house hasnt been reassessed.. not complaining

house 2 north las vegas.. paid 260 in "06, zillow value is 230.. i understand that because of market conditions..

house 3, closing in 3wks, bank accepted 252k, was a repo and is gorgeous.. las vegas 89131 on rietz canyon rd... zillow says 435.. holy mackeral..

just weird very weird.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by airics

ok so i have three houses, checked them on zillow,,,, house 1 cleveland ohio value on zillow is 160k, there hasnt been a house that cheap in my division in over 10 yrs.. avg sale price around 250 but i understand that maybe my house hasnt been reassessed.. not complaining

house 2 north las vegas.. paid 260 in "06, zillow value is 230.. i understand that because of market conditions..

house 3, closing in 3wks, bank accepted 252k, was a repo and is gorgeous.. las vegas 89131 on rietz canyon rd... zillow says 435.. holy mackeral..

just weird very weird.

Zillow is a computer model with limited data...it does not have enough information to make good calls unless the house is like 4 others that have sold cleanly in the last month.

There is good information available on Zillow...but it is not the Zestimates.

[Eric Young]

It's gotten to the point where I can just copy and paste my old posts...

In regards to Zillow, I would urge you to avoid using the site. You are more likely to be provided with wildly erroneous information than to receive anything useful.

How far off can Zillow be? Thirty percent is not uncommon. Ten to fifteen percent is probably about the norm.

If you want decent comps but don't want to deal with a realtor, go to the Clark County Assessor's page and look up the public records for homes similar to the one you're researching. It is more time consuming - but you're looking at information that is very highly accurate. And the conclusions you reach will be based on your own judgment, rather than an algorithm that has a long way to go before the bugs are worked out (if they ever can be).

Unfortunately, Zillow doesn't have much incentive to work out the bugs because their business model is based on lead generation and sales, rather than payment by end-users. You didn't really think they offer their service to consumers free of charge because they’re uniquely pre-disposed to charitable work?

Mortgage lenders and real estate agents pay for Zillow because they buy leads from them (same with Lending Tree and most online “services” – it can run $500 a pop).

At the end of the day, Zillow doesn't care if their wrong because accuracy is not their goal - generating leads to sell is their goal.