[barryhussein]

I think going through a builder's lender would be a lot different then asking a REO bank to finance you. I got a counter contract, the other day. It pretty much said don't even ask us to finance you. The mortgage departments and the asset sales seem to be different arms of conglomerates. The new car example is different; they are making a good bit of money off of the financing. They do seem to pout at the Toyota dealerships, when you tell them "cash" just as they are getting ready to take you in the back F & I room. An insolvent bank needs the cash.

[TakLV]

I read that these REO homes are getting bought up quickly now. I have heard about people calling the banks and them telling them there are multiple offers all the time. I think it is probably hard to tell if it is BS or not. I would submit a low price regardless of whether they say that or not. Robert Adams at Crighton Real Estate Holdings [ crehadams@gmail.com ]told me it is cheaper to buy a REO home than it is to buy the land and build a home on it. Las Vegas real estate is going through an interesting period right now that is for sure.

[olecapt]

Professional RE Agents don't use gmail email addresses. Generally means they are new or part time.

[rpachigo]

"Nevada maintained the nation’s No. 1 foreclosure rate, with one in every 76 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month (November) — more than six times the national average," according to RealtyTrac. Uh-Oh

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by rpachigo

"Nevada maintained the nation’s No. 1 foreclosure rate, with one in every 76 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month (November) — more than six times the national average," according to RealtyTrac. Uh-Oh

Foreclosures are also down about 20% from October to November. The end may be in sight.

[rpachigo]

I thought that would elicit a response from you.

Foreclosure Storm Will Hit U.S. in ‘09 Amid Job Loss.
Bloomberg.com: U.S.

“The decline in prices and its devastating consequences” will continue next year with no indication of when they will stabilize, Hall said. Programs that modify the terms of loans, including efforts by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. can’t help thousands of borrowers, he said.

“Something like 70 percent of subprime foreclosures are beyond the reach of modification programs because the owners are investors, because the owner is in default for the second time on the property, or because the owner has disappeared,” Hall said.

Ouch! That's gonna leave a mark. And this:

"Nevada had the highest rate for the 23rd straight month with one in 76 households in some stage of foreclosure, more than six times the national average. Filings more than doubled from a year earlier to 13,962."

And to wrap things up:

"Las Vegas ranked second at one in every 61 households in a stage of foreclosure."

If you're a hundred, two hundred thousand underwater, those values are gone and never coming back. No modification or interest rate change will ever fix that - ultimately it becomes an economic decision for many to walk away. I think that will start occurring more and more in 2009 - I hear the conversations every day. Everyone's doing the math in their head and some will head for the exits.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by rpachigo

I thought that would elicit a response from you.

Foreclosure Storm Will Hit U.S. in ‘09 Amid Job Loss.
Bloomberg.com: U.S.

“The decline in prices and its devastating consequences” will continue next year with no indication of when they will stabilize, Hall said. Programs that modify the terms of loans, including efforts by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. can’t help thousands of borrowers, he said.

“Something like 70 percent of subprime foreclosures are beyond the reach of modification programs because the owners are investors, because the owner is in default for the second time on the property, or because the owner has disappeared,” Hall said.

Real Estate is local. Only the behavior in Phoenix resembles Las Vegas. Subprime in Las Vegas is clearly running down. The damage has been taken. If the November drop in foreclosures was not a fluke we may well be on our way out of that particular problem.

Ouch! That's gonna leave a mark. And this:

"Nevada had the highest rate for the 23rd straight month with one in 76 households in some stage of foreclosure, more than six times the national average. Filings more than doubled from a year earlier to 13,962."

And to wrap things up:

"Las Vegas ranked second at one in every 61 households in a stage of foreclosure."

If you're a hundred, two hundred thousand underwater, those values are gone and never coming back. No modification or interest rate change will ever fix that - ultimately it becomes an economic decision for many to walk away. I think that will start occurring more and more in 2009 - I hear the conversations every day. Everyone's doing the math in their head and some will head for the exits.

Been going on for 18 months now. And some modifications could help. But still it runs down eventually.

The price is well below replacement costs in a lot of areas and the costs have reached low enough levels that rentals give off positive cash flows. Note that sales volumes are running at record levels.

It could well be that the overall financial crisis will deepen and prevent a recovery in Las Vegas. But that simply says everywhere goes to hell. If that happens you don't have much choice but to live with it.

[rpachigo]

"It could well be that the overall financial crisis will deepen and prevent a recovery in Las Vegas. But that simply says everywhere goes to hell. If that happens you don't have much choice but to live with it."

That I can agree with you. More than subprime now though I hear these conversations among perfectly financially healthy people (relatively speaking) about if they bought their house for 350000 or 400000 and now it's worth 250000 or less, do I stay or go? This is something that will prolong this crisis imo for the foreseeable future. Voluntary foreclosures will increase dramatically - it's hard to calculate this though based on stats. You can glean it from some of the information - "owner can't be reached, etc." And as far as rents, rents are dropping quite a bit also. You have deflation all around you. Housing prices, stock market, gasoline and rent deflation. So you can't pencil out rental income as before. Things will sit on craigslist for months on end not getting rented.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by rpachigo

"It could well be that the overall financial crisis will deepen and prevent a recovery in Las Vegas. But that simply says everywhere goes to hell. If that happens you don't have much choice but to live with it."

That I can agree with you. More than subprime now though I hear these conversations among perfectly financially healthy people (relatively speaking) about if they bought their house for 350000 or 400000 and now it's worth 250000 or less, do I stay or go? This is something that will prolong this crisis imo for the foreseeable future. Voluntary foreclosures will increase dramatically - it's hard to calculate this though based on stats. You can glean it from some of the information - "owner can't be reached, etc." And as far as rents, rents are dropping quite a bit also. You have deflation all around you. Housing prices, stock market, gasoline and rent deflation. So you can't pencil out rental income as before. Things will sit on craigslist for months on end not getting rented.

Actually the vast majority of the sub-prime is well into the foreclosure process. Well over half have already gone. And it is the rate that is important. We will have to see what happens with AltA and such but they may well be more modifiable.

I think you are quite incorrect on any sizable increase in the rate of foreclosure. We been there. It may well tail on for 5 or more years. But if it is limited in rate it can be lived with.

Rents are stable and have not moved significantly in the last six months...so I suspect they will not. LIkely the housing thing is driving the rental thing. The rental volume is 10% or more above last year.

It is not a very happy time I agree. But don't hang unneccessary crape.

I would think Vegas will do relatively well. That is relatively...if the country goes to hell so will Vegas. But I think Vegas still has a set of parameters that will make it recover early.

We will see.

[barryhussein]

Jingle Mail, Jingle Mail.....