[olecapt]

The olecapt walks out on the plank..whips out his saw and begins cutting between he and the boat...

It appears the end is upon us. We are in the valley. We prophesy that the resale prices of Single family residences in Las Vegas will go up in May over April.

For those more conservative than Olecapt...it could be a seasonal variation.

But Olecapt thinks not. There is more than one variable in play and a couple say we are turning the corner.

Now the mythical 22,000 bank owned could appear in the next week. Or interest rates could pop up a point...or City Center could be destroyed in an earthquake (or imploded by a consortium of bankers)...but short of a catastrophe it appears the numbers suggest an end of the downward trend.

Now remember no one...including olecapt...should announce such a thing without months of data...but by then all would have noticed.

So olecapt stands on the end of the plank and saws away...

Won't it be fun to arguue about how long until we get back to 2004?

[radraja]

Ahhh..this was a good read. I suppose we shall have to wait and see what happens.

(My personal prediction - I think that values will slowly start to go up, but I don't think we'll see anything close to 2004 prices in the forseeable future. Vegas just isn't as much of a hotspot as it once was...these days, people are more intersted in Texas, Utah, etc.)

[Daddys///M3]

Originally Posted by olecapt

The olecapt walks out on the plank..whips out his saw and begins cutting between he and the boat...

It appears the end is upon us. We are in the valley. We prophesy that the resale prices of Single family residences in Las Vegas will go up in May over April.

For those more conservative than Olecapt...it could be a seasonal variation.

But Olecapt thinks not. There is more than one variable in play and a couple say we are turning the corner.

Now the mythical 22,000 bank owned could appear in the next week. Or interest rates could pop up a point...or City Center could be destroyed in an earthquake (or imploded by a consortium of bankers)...but short of a catastrophe it appears the numbers suggest an end of the downward trend.

Now remember no one...including olecapt...should announce such a thing without months of data...but by then all would have noticed.

So olecapt stands on the end of the plank and saws away...

Won't it be fun to arguue about how long until we get back to 2004?

Whatever issues we had with interest rates last week is over. Bond pricing went off a cliff on Wed but by Fri the bond market got about 50% of it's losses back and it appears that spreads between bonds and street level rates have even shrunk a bit. I expect to slowly get back to the highs (of bond pricing, the lows of rates) of 2 weeks ago over the course of the next week or two.

On another note, there is another factor that is going to drive volume that you may or may not be aware of. Yesterday HUD issued an FHA mortgagee letter that may get the phones ringing off the hook. Apparently HUD gave the go ahead for lenders to purchase borrowers' FTHB tax credits and issue bridge loans for the minimum borrower contribution. We just may need to see 20,000 REO (we can always hope, right?) listed to handle the coming volume.

[horseplayer]

I was looking at my old golf course condo neighborhood in Phoenix. 1999 prices in there. 2004? Cut that number in half, and you will be close.

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by olecapt

It appears the end is upon us.

No. Not even close.

Originally Posted by olecapt

We prophesy that the resale prices of Single family residences in Las Vegas will go up in May over April.

Yes. Note that this statement and your first statement have little to do with each other.

It's likely that this trend will continue for a bit until forclosures that have been issued NOD actually go through the foreclosure process.

My one caveat is if the Federal Government intercedes in such a manner as to prevent those foreclosures.

But in the meantime, as long as supply does not increase, due to foreclosures not occuring, the sheep will snap up whatever is on the market and edge prices upwards.

Originally Posted by olecapt

For those more conservative than Olecapt...it could be a seasonal variation.

This is a very minimal impact. The shortage of new foreclosures on the market is the big factor at the moment.

I'll enjoy quoting this post a year from now.

[olecapt]

Actuallly I would expect this thread to go into a number of Pearl Harbor files including mine....

So it will come up in a year whatever the actual outcome.

I do though agree that it is very much driven by the REO situation.

[007 license to sell]

Originally Posted by olecapt

The olecapt walks out on the plank..whips out his saw and begins cutting between he and the boat...

It appears the end is upon us. We are in the valley. We prophesy that the resale prices of Single family residences in Las Vegas will go up in May over April.

For those more conservative than Olecapt...it could be a seasonal variation.

But Olecapt thinks not. There is more than one variable in play and a couple say we are turning the corner.

Now the mythical 22,000 bank owned could appear in the next week. Or interest rates could pop up a point...or City Center could be destroyed in an earthquake (or imploded by a consortium of bankers)...but short of a catastrophe it appears the numbers suggest an end of the downward trend.

Now remember no one...including olecapt...should announce such a thing without months of data...but by then all would have noticed.

So olecapt stands on the end of the plank and saws away...

Won't it be fun to arguue about how long until we get back to 2004?

It is way too soon to call a bottom, even though the banks will be releasing more inventory they have been sitting on there are home owners still getting foreclosed on.

1 in 8 home owners in Las Vegas are behind in their mortgages and this isn't just folks who borrowed without down payments and lied about what they make.


This is folks who did it right that either are now currently out of jobs or they got those arm loans that are resetting and can't afford their homes any more. Also there are those that are struggling with themselves whether to keep their homes or walk away. Lets face it if you paid $400,000 for your home and it 's now worht $150,000 would you keep it.

Do you realize how long if ever you would be even in your home?
And god for bid you were transfered or lost your job and had to sell there is no way.
So those folks will probably cut bate and run. And the banks aren't working with folks that want to stay in there homes, they are modifying all right. I spoke with a couple of ladies one a retired professor from Dartmoth an her daughter that worked for CBS that the banks contacted them for a loan modify and this is what the bank did.

They owed $398,000 on their home the bank had the home appriased and it appraised for $250,000 so what the bank did they gave them a first and second one for $249,000 to be paid off in 30 years at 4% intersest a a second for the rest at 2% interest with a balloon in 15 years.

Yes their payments are lower but the daughter is in her 50's and the mother is in her 80's how does that help them if either one dies and leaves the other to pay it off those loans there is now way.

Until they figuire out what to do with homes in Nevada,phoenix, florida, CA this housing market isn't going to correct itself. Plus unemployment is at 10.4 % in Nevada and until you fix that who can afford to purchase a home much less rent one.

If you think I am being negagtive, I'm not it's called being a realist and you dont' keep from being duped if you don't let yourself to be lulled into thinking everything is great.

I hope things turn around but it 's going to take along time.

[gtbguy]

Originally Posted by olecapt

The olecapt walks out on the plank..whips out his saw and begins cutting between he and the boat...

It appears the end is upon us. We are in the valley. We prophesy that the resale prices of Single family residences in Las Vegas will go up in May over April.

For those more conservative than Olecapt...it could be a seasonal variation.

But Olecapt thinks not. There is more than one variable in play and a couple say we are turning the corner.

Now the mythical 22,000 bank owned could appear in the next week. Or interest rates could pop up a point...or City Center could be destroyed in an earthquake (or imploded by a consortium of bankers)...but short of a catastrophe it appears the numbers suggest an end of the downward trend.

Now remember no one...including olecapt...should announce such a thing without months of data...but by then all would have noticed.

So olecapt stands on the end of the plank and saws away...

Won't it be fun to arguue about how long until we get back to 2004?

Olecap, I think you are going to miss this one. I'd like to think we are at the bottom but I don't expect that until late next year (even that is a big MAYBE). There are too many people who have lost thier jobs and have no way to pay their mortgage. When you have 1 out of 8 people behind on their mortgages and the government not helping them, there is no end in the immediate sight.

[jfkIII]

I still think LV has to re-invent itself. So does the author of this article....

Has economic twilight come to the Sun Belt? - U.S. business- msnbc.com

And it needs to start with education...

[from the article...]
And yet, Sun Belt states will have to offer more than tax incentives to reel in companies in the new, global economy, says Keith Schwer, executive director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada.

Quality health care, quality recreation, quality education — companies and individuals consider the caliber of amenities before relocating. Cosmetic fixes don't help, he says. "You can't hide your warts."

Does all of this mean the Sun Belt will have to reinvent itself to grow again?

Rethink may be a better term.

As an example, Caron St. John, director of the Spiro Institute for Entrepreneurship at Clemson University in South Carolina, says Sun Belt states now rationing funds ought to consider returning to "First Principles" — that is, channeling what little money they have toward elementary and high schools rather than higher education.

"Elementary and high school children — we can't scar their lives because of a budget crisis. That has to be the first priority."

[horseplayer]

Let's all move to Michigan.