[airics]

Originally Posted by Buzz123

My two cents: I'm betting on two years, based on past performance, and the fact that people will take a vacation when things are bad in order to cheer themselves up, and to forget reality for a while. At least that's the way it has always been in Las Vegas and other resort communities.

IMO, Vegas is like a bar.. when you're happy, you go to the bar...when you're sad, you go to the bar... when you're average, bar.

[las vegas drunk]

Vegas will not be back in a year...

By summer 2013, according to the state Health and Human Services Department, hundreds of thousands of Nevadans will need public assistance to survive:• Nearly one in five Nevadans will be on food stamps;
• Enrollment in Medicaid, the federal-state health insurance program for the poor, will increase nearly 25 percent, to more than 250,000;
• Enrollment in welfare will increase by one-third.

More Nevadans will need help as economic storm worsens - Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009 | 2 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun

[Swigchow]

As the National economy rebounds, so will Las Vegas. The following leading economic indicators (lol) suggest the recession is over.
There is an increase in the size of restaurant garbage piles, increase in denim sales, increase in pink ties, increase in shopping bag counts, increase in wine auction sales, increase in wireless towers, and decrease in hotel cancellations (the article mentions MGM).
http://www.forbes.com/2009/09/21/clever-economic-indicators-entrepreneurs-finance-indicators_slide.html?partner=email

Anecdotically, it seems I know of many friends, relatives, and acquaintances who will be visiting Las Vegas soon. It also seems Signature reservations are up with a few days already listed as sold out. That probably hasnt happened for a while. There is hope...

[jrice]

Vegas will def recover, as will the rest of the nation. But seeing that Vegas is a expendable cash driven driven town it will most likely be one of the last areas to truly recover

[Buzz123]

Originally Posted by jrice

Vegas will def recover, as will the rest of the nation. But seeing that Vegas is a expendable cash driven driven town it will most likely be one of the last areas to truly recover

You may be right. Nobody knows. But I've been hearing that one for most of my life, and everytime we've had an economic downturn, Las Vegas has always been one of the first cities to recover. Economists overlook human nature. People want to be entertained and to feel good, even when the house is caving in; doesn't matter if they are a high roller betting millions, or Joe from Podunk with a roll of quarters to lose. They all think they can get win and everything will be all right.

Also, as I was reading about Bob Stupak in John Smith's column today, he reminded me that in Vegas, the attitude has forever been anything worth doing is worth doing in excess.

[armyjimb]

The problem is that Vegas is entering a new era. People do not want to spend money. Therefore, Vegas will be the last to recover. The issue I have with is the term, "recover." Our property values will never returned to normal. Unemployment is still rising at a constant rate. The Las Vegas Sun recently reported that Vegas could eventually hit an unemployment rate of 17-19 percent. With these numbers, I am sad to say, Vegas is doomed.

[LIS123]

Originally Posted by armyjimb

The problem is that Vegas is entering a new era. People do not want to spend money. Therefore, Vegas will be the last to recover. The issue I have with is the term, "recover." Our property values will never returned to normal. Unemployment is still rising at a constant rate. The Las Vegas Sun recently reported that Vegas could eventually hit an unemployment rate of 17-19 percent. With these numbers, I am sad to say, Vegas is doomed.

I like the argument that assumptions about eventually returning to 'normal' or boom period values are wrong. Some people assume that their equity and or home values will, EVENTUALLY, return to their peak values. This is not necessarily the case, especially when you adjust for inflation.

It's kind of like holding on to your home or stocks forever, knowing that they will return to their peak value over time (although, in many cases, they will not).

[jfkIII]

This past year has been a good one, financially-speaking, for me. No, I did not get a raise or increase my income...but by simply adjusting my spending (haven't been to LV in a while ) I have been able to pay off over $10K of debt, while incurring no new debt. My child support payments end in the next few months, and I plan to pay that extra exact monthly amount to further reduce debt. My goal is to be completely out of debt within the next 3 years. Just by tightening the belt.

That's my goal...and it means no more Las Vegas until then, at least. And when I do return to LV...I will pre-save for the trip before coming again. At this rate, I won't be back there until at least 2012! This, from someone who used to make a pilgrimage to LV at least once...and sometimes, twice a year (I have not been there since the last DDO...I believe in March, 2008?)

I don't know about others across the country...but there may some of the same thinking (to some degree) in their plans. Until then, this board will have to do. Thank you all for my Vegas fix...and I'll see what things look like in 2012.

[jaunespinoza]

Originally Posted by LIS123

It's kind of like holding on to your home or stocks forever, knowing that they will return to their peak value over time (although, in many cases, they will not).

And Vegas is another GM. A real "blue chipper."

[gulfer]

Good scenario JFK. I think people are paying off thier debt and not living on credit cards, too bad it took this economy for folks to figure this one out.
I'm really not surprised though that people are still heading to Las Vegas. While it is double digits for unemployment, one thing that doesn't get mentioned enough in my opinion is that most families are dual income now. That wasn't the case for the Great Depression or many years after that. Most people are still making it and doing okay. Are these the folks that are taking advantage of some good deals in Vegas, I would say at least some are.
For the average folks who work thier lives to make it and have a nice nest egg to retire with, the sky isn't falling as it appeared a year ago, but folks are cautious. And with caution I think more realist approach to finances prevail.