[svillechris]

Hi All,

Let me preface this by apologizing if this has been posted and/or answered many times on this board before. I'm looking to get a first hand opinion on Vegas's economy, including but not limited to the unemployment, real estate (home prices stablizing?), and any pickup in the tourism.

Thanks in advance.

[MomMom]

Originally Posted by svillechris

Hi All,

Let me preface this by apologizing if this has been posted and/or answered many times on this board before. I'm looking to get a first hand opinion on Vegas's economy, including but not limited to the unemployment, real estate (home prices stablizing?), and any pickup in the tourism.

Thanks in advance.

Why do you want to move here?

[svillechris]

I am not looking to move there whatsoever. Potential investment and forecasting information. I've got access to the data, but honestly sometimes what we read is different that what's actually being felt by the people themselves. Any input would be appreciated. Thank you

[007 license to sell]

Originally Posted by svillechris

Hi All,

Let me preface this by apologizing if this has been posted and/or answered many times on this board before. I'm looking to get a first hand opinion on Vegas's economy, including but not limited to the unemployment, real estate (home prices stablizing?), and any pickup in the tourism.

Thanks in advance.

The tourism is down, we still see close to 3 mil a month coming to Vegas but a huge room discounts,tourists are not spending much in the restaurants or gambling. Our state and local governments budgets are in the red, and there are lay offs in all sectors. There are more lay offs coming down the pike. As far as real-estate it isn't really going any where the banks are still hanging on to properties, and some of that is due to new mandated short sale laws, it gives the appearance of stablelizing.

Unemployment is very high it is suggested to be far higher than 13.8%. Some people on this site will tell you it's getting better, and in some cases it may seem so.
It's not good out here, there are around 150,000 people unemployed in Nevada. We have close to 13,000 homeless people that's the ones they can find to count, some families hide so they don't have their children taken away.
The state's high court counts 50,559 notices of default for all types of real estate issued between July 1 and the end of February.
California-based RealtyTrac reported Nevada had 11,854 foreclosure filings in January and 2,332 homes had been repossessed. The filings fell 18 percent from January 2009 and were equivalent to the rate in December.
There are more foreclosures looming due to option arm resets and loss of jobs this year.
Not a rosy picture, as an investor you will be competing with other investors properties from $250,000 or less is the properties they are going after. Rentals are getting saturated so some investors are already flipping. I hope this is helpful, I am not being negative this is just the reality right now and to paint a rosy picture by telling everyone everything is fine, it's getting better is not being fair.
Things will turn around when some experts say 5 years some say 10 to 15 yrs, it all comes down to jobs once people start working again they will feel more comfortable going on vacations again, instead of staycations. This town isn't diversified it relies heavily on tourism.

Hope this is helpful, I don't tell you this to discourage you from coming and investing, it may not seem like it. I would love to see more people move here and buy but not without knowing what can be in store for them.
I believe in buyer beware.

[MomMom]

Originally Posted by svillechris

I am not looking to move there whatsoever. Potential investment and forecasting information. I've got access to the data, but honestly sometimes what we read is different that what's actually being felt by the people themselves. Any input would be appreciated. Thank you

Oh I see, I'll leave your questions to those who have investment properties here (that bought recently), they can tell you their opinions on the subject and whether they are losing/making money or not.

[svillechris]

Hey 007 thanks for the info, very informative. Your overall view that it's not getting better is in line with my views and research as well. The option-arm point especially. There's been a lull in the ARM resets in the past year or year and a half, but they're about to start up again in a big way. Also, all of the shadow inventory that banks are holding on to will have to be let go at some point, further depressing the housing market.

I think it gets worse before it gets better. This can be said for most of the country, not just Vegas, in my opinion.

[airics]

i wish my loan would reset tomorrow, i would be at 3%!!~!~!!!!!

[KidsinVegas]

Does anyone consider the people that are displaced by foreclosure? It's not like they will have credit ratings good enough any time soon to purchase.

With investors competing for "affordable" housing these people are left out in the cold. The Banks are flush with FREE CASH with no incentive to unload inventory. So houses sit vacant as magnets for the homeless... lowering the values of neighborhoods further. How much longer until people start demanding property tax re assessment on their plummeting values?

Vegas is co dependent on Tourism whether the locals want to believe it or not. People that are traveling are spending much less. When will this pick up?

Perhaps never... perhaps this is the new Paradigm. Perhaps Vegas will be forced to shrink.

And often discussed is the water levels in Lake Mead. Maybe Vegas has reached it's maximum sustainable growth for the next decade already.

It's not like you can grow food here... can't bring in technology that is water dependent. And how do you fix the employment gap with a workforce that is not as educated as other areas.

Sad situation.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by svillechris

Hey 007 thanks for the info, very informative. Your overall view that it's not getting better is in line with my views and research as well. The option-arm point especially. There's been a lull in the ARM resets in the past year or year and a half, but they're about to start up again in a big way. Also, all of the shadow inventory that banks are holding on to will have to be let go at some point, further depressing the housing market.

I think it gets worse before it gets better. This can be said for most of the country, not just Vegas, in my opinion.

Nope...

This balderdash keeps coming and coming and coming...but it is still nonsense.

The banks have no substantial inventory. Releasing of non existent inventory effects nothing.

Arm resets would be good for the economy not bad. And the option arm was not widely used in Nevada.

Pricing remains stable. Bank owned inventory and sales continue to drop.

It shows no sign of getting better or worse. Just floating along as it is.

[tony soprano]

Banks obviously have had enough inventory to accommodate over a year of record level sales volume... and prices have still fallen YoY. When supply can't meet demand, prices go up, not down. So, there's certainly been no shortage of inventory. And there's been no shortage of recurring balderdash. How long ago was it that we heard banks were soon going to run out of REOs and prices would go higher? And before that it was prices were stabilizing and an increase in sales volume may trigger higher prices.