Why Lehigh Valley homes values are falling (renters, mortgages)

[markas214]

Originally Posted by EmmausRocks

You are one of the people who overpaid, it shows in your answer. This is a chart which was created by Robert Schiller, the man 1/2 responsible for the S&P Home price Index(that little old thing).

This has never happened before, hence the insane rise of the chart! The data is not a lie, that's what realtors want you to believe (are you a realtor)? Prices rose in the late 80's around the valley and then dropped back down to original levels a few years later so if that's your example, thanks! That's exactly what is going to happen now but worse! Prices were rising at 3-5% annually during the 90's and that was historically too high. You see housing has historical value. If we believed you then why not have another DOT.COM bubble?

Now when you realize you overpaid(you already have negative equitity, everyone who bought during the bubble does) then it will be easier to accept. Either you can keep paying the mortgage and watch similar homes on your block sell for 1/2 of what you paid or you can walk away, file bankruptcy and 2 years from now buy again. Honestly, if I were a home owner in the current market who bought during the bubble, I would do the bankruptcy thing and around 2 years from now when the bubble is closer to being near the bottom with prices getting back to pre 2000 levels, I would buy. That's an option many people are doing and I can't blame them.

Moderator cut: website

facts are there you can ignore them or trust the realtors
you make the call!

You sound like an angry renter who's been priced out. Either that or you still live with your parents. I was priced out in the last bubble, late 80s, but bought at the bottom in '96. I don't deny a bubble locally but your overly pessimistic view would be more apropriate on a Las Vegas forum.

[unoriginal]

Originally Posted by EmmausRocks

Some people (realtors & people who overpaid during the bubble) like to say that the Lehigh Valley was not part of the housing bubble. That always make me laugh.

The average cost of a Lehigh Valley home in the year 2000 was around $100,000 US dollars. At the peak of the housing bubble around 2006 the average Lehigh Valley home was around $230,000 US dollars. That's an increase of about 130%. That's the same increase that was seen in places like Florida, Nevada, California etc. How anyone couldn't realize that's a increase that's never been seen before in history and why every economist (besides the one's on the national association of realtors payroll) has proven this was a national housing bubble with too many markets going insane. Salaries went down during this time due to inflation (lehigh valley inflation was around 7% which nationally was only around 4-5%). Either way prices are crashing and will continue and more than likely will end up around the mid to late 90's level before the level off. You won't ever have this type of increase that happened.

Here's a great graph that proves too anyone with a brain that this housing bubble was unlike any other increase of housing we've ever had.

So you are saying now isn't a good time to buy? I suppose it could get worse but I just cant imagine townhouses that I'm seeing in Macungie in the mid to high 190s going much lower. A lot of people are taking some type of loss if they are selling now (assuming they bought in the last 8 or so years) and I can't imagine them taking even more of a loss unless they are absolutely forced to, i.e. job loss, job transfer etc.

Seeing those townhomes in the 160s range seems unfathomable to me.

[toobusytoday]

Personally, I would rather have my money going towards the purchase of a house then into a landlords pocket.

[sunshine18102]

people are selling their homes in allentown because they want to get away from a bad area. They may have to sell dirt cheap to to this but people here are so cheap that they will not do that. I walk around allentown and see empty houses and the reason is 1. they will not go down on the price or 2. They may not want to rent out their house and have someone ruin what they put into it. I would do number 1. also the people should give all people a choice to own a home. No matter how bad their credit is. I have been trying to buy a house for years. The problem past bills. Old old past bills. older then 10 years. Bills from the late 80's I pay my rent and i have for 14 months, food is on the table, I pay for compteer, gas heat, phone, cable and electric. If i could get a loan. I would not buy in allentown. Maybe flordia or california. I feel that a person that can show that they pay rent. Can pay back a loan for a house. Maybe they can set up a plan to pay back bills and add it together with a house loan. That would work. Compainies need to do something more.

[Stavs]

I agree. We wanted to move to NC to get away from the trash that is over running the area. Unfortunately, the economy does not allow us to move due to the poor job market. SOm with that being said, we are moving to a better area locally-either Forks or Saucon Valley. At least we will be further away from this bad element and feel free to walk our streets anytime of day.

[markas214]

From the Morning Call, 2/22/09:


The market has seen two consecutive years of price declines, which represent an abrupt turnaround from the go-go price gains earlier in the decade. The average price of a home sold in 2008 in Lehigh and Northampton counties was $222,000, down 2.6 percent from the 2006 average, according to the Lehigh Valley Association of Realtors.


Not a crash yet.

[Stavs]

I dont think it will be a crash...it will just be a gradual reduction until the market complete corrects itself. Apparently we dont have a high rate of foreclosures here which is what is kind of sheltering us.

Stavs

[markas214]

"The median price of a home sold in Lehigh and Northampton counties dropped 4 percent to $185,000 compared with a year ago. Sales volume dropped by 46 percent to 212 homes sold in the month, according to the HomExpert Report from Prudential Patt, White Real Estate, one of the Valley's largest real estate firms." The morning Call, 02/26/2009

[Stavs]

Hooray...I'm under the average-someone buy my house, its a bargain!

[sunshine18102]

alot of times people do not want to lower their prices on their homes so they can sell them or they do want to rent them out when they are empty because they are scared that someone will ruin their house. Our house was for sale when i rented it. Now we are living there for 14 months and the house is the same as it was when we moved in People just have to get the right renters.