Rethinking Future Home Price Declines (Emmaus, Penn: sales, real estate market, 2009)

[EmmausRocks]

The lehigh valley experienced the extreme price increases in real estate that too many other places did and this is what created the housing/credit bubble. We are just like the other area's that are watching values plummet. Prices are heading back to pre bubble costs and I along with most economists realize that it's not coming back(no matter what commision based sales people want you to believe). It get's worse daily and I think the goverment is making a bad situation worse by throwing money at the problem. All the money will do is make the problem last longer, that's it.

Here's a great article I just read.

Rethinking Future Home Price Declines -- Seeking Alpha

[SIZE=3]TIMING OF FUTURE HOME PRICE DECLINE[/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]Professor Robert Shiller spoke last week with the German newspaper Handelsblatt. Professor Shiller warned that home buyers’ fear and the disappearance of easy credit could produce a housing downturn more severe than that of the Great Depression:[/SIZE]

• <LI _extended="true">[SIZE=3]We are still experiencing a record price decline.[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=3]It is quite possible that house prices fall more strongly than they did during the global economic crisis of 80 years ago. The real estate crisis could last 10 more years.[/SIZE]

[EmmausRocks]

The only people who still don't think the Lehigh Valley real estate market is going to continue it's price decline (already 25%-30% off peak values) until the value of homes around the lehigh valley is back to what it should be. Remember these realtors have been saying the bottom is coming since 2006 along with all the other funny lies. There is a 1/2 double in Emmaus I've been watching for about a year now and it's the perfect example of how housing is in such horrible conditions and will only get worse. It's a old stone farmhouse with a nice size yard bigger than most. It first hit the market about a year ago for around $185,000. No takers for months and then the price drops to around $140,000 sits for months and still no takers. The last few months it's priced at $125,000 and guess what, NO TAKERS. No I thought realtors have been saying homes priced under $200,000 are moving fast (LOL). East Penn is a great district and the realtors love to talk abot that article boasting our town as one of the best in the country being in the top 100. The fact is most of the true locals realized that overpaying by twice what a home is worth was foolish. Now some did buy and are kicking themself about that but most were foolish people coming from bigger housing bubble markets like NJ and thinking they were getting a deal. Now prices in NJ are crashing too and they are driving past their old neighborhoods on the way to work 1 1/2-2 hours each way and wondering why they didn't wait. All bubbles burst and this one is making all the other bubbels in the US history seem like a day at the park compared to what were are just getting into. We are only in the 2nd inning of a overtime game that's going to crush everything in it's way.

Moneynews - Shiller: A Decade of Housing Pain





Shiller: A Decade of Housing Pain


Friday, January 30, 2009 9:29 AM

By: Greg Brown
Yale economist and housing guru Robert Shiller — who correctly predicted the U.S. housing collapse — now says the downturn might last up to 10 years.
“We are still experiencing a record price decline,” Shilller told German financial daily Handelsblatt.
“It is quite possible that house prices fall more strongly than they did during the global economic crisis of 80 years ago. The real estate crisis could last 10 more years.”

[jeffvivian]

Yes sky is falling....everyone should just quit....quit buying, quit owning, quit living, quit existing, quit being.....

There is one thing you fail to realize which shows you have no idea what REAL Estate is all about....

Its NOT all NUMBERS... most of the time its not about a quick INVESTMENT....its about living, its shelter, its memories....of where children grown and remember what HOME is all about. Now put a price on that....

So spout your numbers and your nonsense links that have nothing to do with the Lehigh Valley (which I have no idea why that are not posted on the National Forum but) and yes regurgate your info from OTHER PEOPLE and OTHER SITES....

And if the market softens and doesn't recover for 2 years (as you so indicate)....does it really matter the people that bought 2 years ago (in the this so called bubble) have an average of 10 years left (just so you know 12 years is the average span for people in between moves) to live in their HOME...before they decide to move again.

The biggest gag you got going is trying to make peole believe real estate is a gig that either 1. shouldn't move at all from year to year as noted from your wishes of prices receeding back to 1990. and 2. that real estate should have some short term return right away and that would be the ONLY reason to BUY....

So can you please at least by a clue as to what really makes up REAL ESTATE...and stop this nonsense of short sighted, short term, idiodic jargon.

BTW....I only know of one person who does what other people tell them to do....and that is you. Other people think and breathe on their own and are going to do what makes them HAPPY...not what some clown wants to post for them to do.

[jeffvivian]

Originally Posted by EmmausRocks

There is a 1/2 double in Emmaus I've been watching for about a year now and it's the perfect example of how housing is in such horrible conditions and will only get worse. It's a old stone farmhouse with a nice size yard bigger than most. It first hit the market about a year ago for around $185,000. No takers for months and then the price drops to around $140,000 sits for months and still no takers. The last few months it's priced at $125,000 and guess what, NO TAKERS. No I thought realtors have been saying homes priced under $200,000 are moving fast (LOL). ”

This house came on the market at $157,700.00....Thats a FAR CRY from $180K.....

Whats that about AGENTS lieing....

[forks_girl]

Can't someone kick ER off this forum? He is soooooo annoying with all his bull.

[toobusytoday]

If any poster annoys you, you have two options - don't read his/her posts or 2) put them on your ignore list and then you won't even see their posts - http://www.city-data.com/forum/profi...?do=ignorelist I haven't tried it yet so let me know how it works out.

Posters can be banned once they violate the terms of service consistently, but not for posting information that may be simply uninteresting to some readers. It would be very helpful if people would post more interesting Lehigh Valley things...

[ScranBarre]

Originally Posted by toobusytoday

Posters can be banned once they violate the terms of service consistently, but not for posting information that may be simply uninteresting to most readers.

There. I fixed it for you!

[forks_girl]

LOL ScranBarre. Thanks for the info mod. I will try that.