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The demand for Real Estate does not go away just because the market is soft. People keep getting married and having children, they outgrow their present home or apartment, singles and couples want more privacy than than being home. Every year scores of people graduate college, hopefully get a job, climb the ranks, want to buy a home, etc..etc...
Temporary "Holed Up" living situations get more and more strained untill they break:
Neighbors paying $15,000 or more a year taxes get tired of "permanently temporary" illegal living situations around them and take action.
Couples (especially those with children) living with his or her parents create an increasingly testy environment..."You never should have married the bum, how long has he been looking? My grandchildren deserve better"....Or...."Can't she go out an look for something to help out? Your'e working two jobs, the stay at home mom excuse is wearing thin"
Not having the tax and future equity incentives of homeownership start to compound negatively, etc, etc....
Forget the "Bubble" scenario, presently the R.E. market is a "Giant Beach Ball" that someone is attempting to hold under water while someone on the shore pumps air into it, eventually the bouyancy just becomes too great and the ball comes flying to the surface and can leap into the air (the air time is an inflated or "overpriced" market)
Those who wait too long to buy or do not buy at all will be haunted by this ball, it will chase them down the beach like Patrick McGoohan in the "Prisoner".....
The demand for Real Estate does not go away just because the market is soft. People keep getting married and having children, they outgrow their present home or apartment, singles and couples want more privacy than than being home. Every year scores of people graduate college, hopefully get a job, climb the ranks, want to buy a home, etc..etc...
Temporary "Holed Up" living situations get more and more strained untill they break:
Neighbors paying $15,000 or more a year taxes get tired of "permanently temporary" illegal living situations around them and take action.
Couples (especially those with children) living with his or her parents create an increasingly testy environment..."You never should have married the bum, how long has he been looking? My grandchildren deserve better"....Or...."Can't she go out an look for something to help out? Your'e working two jobs, the stay at home mom excuse is wearing thin"
Not having the tax and future equity incentives of homeownership start to compound negatively, etc, etc....
Forget the "Bubble" scenario, presently the R.E. market is a "Giant Beach Ball" that someone is attempting to hold under water while someone on the shore pumps air into it, eventually the bouyancy just becomes too great and the ball comes flying to the surface and can leap into the air (the air time is an inflated or "overpriced" market)
Those who wait too long to buy or do not buy at all will be haunted by this ball, it will chase them down the beach like Patrick McGoohan in the "Prisoner".....
And none of that changes the fact that a family making 90K cannot afford a 425K house.
You cannot will the current prices to persist. People who have to sell...sell for whatever price they can get..People selling to cash in and move elsewhere..maybe they stay put and don't sell.
Unless lending rules are relaxed again, there is going to be no ball boucing up in the air for at least 10-15 years, even if then.
The demand for Real Estate does not go away just because the market is soft. People keep getting married and having children, they outgrow their present home or apartment, singles and couples want more privacy than than being home. Every year scores of people graduate college, hopefully get a job, climb the ranks, want to buy a home, etc..etc...
Temporary "Holed Up" living situations get more and more strained untill they break:
Neighbors paying $15,000 or more a year taxes get tired of "permanently temporary" illegal living situations around them and take action.
Couples (especially those with children) living with his or her parents create an increasingly testy environment..."You never should have married the bum, how long has he been looking? My grandchildren deserve better"....Or...."Can't she go out an look for something to help out? Your'e working two jobs, the stay at home mom excuse is wearing thin"
Not having the tax and future equity incentives of homeownership start to compound negatively, etc, etc....
Forget the "Bubble" scenario, presently the R.E. market is a "Giant Beach Ball" that someone is attempting to hold under water while someone on the shore pumps air into it, eventually the bouyancy just becomes too great and the ball comes flying to the surface and can leap into the air (the air time is an inflated or "overpriced" market)
Those who wait too long to buy or do not buy at all will be haunted by this ball, it will chase them down the beach like Patrick McGoohan in the "Prisoner".....
Terrible analogy - you really don't know what's going on... Not only is your beach ball still well into the air, it's being held there by your tax dollars. It's being propped UP, not down!
It's on it's way down for sure and when / if it finally lands it's going to get bashed on by breaking waves for quite some time before it gets airborne again.
Housing prices will go through the roof again. It's inevitable. Unavoidable. Not "if" but "when"...It is our destiny as NY'ers to blow prices way out of proportion with the rest of the country. They will not drop too much lower than they already have in desirable areas. Maybe Shirley/Mastic or something similar will truly see prices plummet, but I'm fairly certain we're at or close to rock bottom right now. I'm an MLS junkie, I've actually seen an incline in prices in the more desirable towns/school districts.
Terrible analogy - you really don't know what's going on... Not only is your beach ball still well into the air, it's being held there by your tax dollars. It's being propped UP, not down!
It's on it's way down for sure and when / if it finally lands it's going to get bashed on by breaking waves for quite some time before it gets airborne again.
I dunno Mikey, if it's such a terrible analogy, why are you using it to show your own examples and take on the market....
Dman...There is quite alot of inventory under 425K in solid areas, one might not get all they are looking for in a home, but since it is an historic market in many respects, buyers should enact their own history lesson and revert back to the 60's when same sex siblings shared bedrooms, people actually lived and survived (can you believe it?) in a home with one bathroom, and fido never seemed the worse for wear running in circles chasing his tail on 40 X 100 lot.
I've seen many up and down markets in my time and near or at the bottom everyone says 10 to 15 years for a comeback or to reach previous levels, never seems to take that long.
The market does seem to be polarizing on Long Island IMO, with shaky to bad areas getting much worse, good to great areas holding their own quite nicely and/or improving (renovation, building and improvements wise, not necessarily price wise just yet) through this market.
I dunno Mikey, if it's such a terrible analogy, why are you using it to show your own examples and take on the market....
Dman...There is quite alot of inventory under 425K in solid areas, one might not get all they are looking for in a home, but since it is an historic market in many respects, buyers should enact their own history lesson and revert back to the 60's when same sex siblings shared bedrooms, people actually lived and survived (can you believe it?) in a home with one bathroom, and fido never seemed the worse for wear running in circles chasing his tail on 40 X 100 lot.
I've seen many up and down markets in my time and near or at the bottom everyone says 10 to 15 years for a comeback or to reach previous levels, never seems to take that long.
The market does seem to be polarizing on Long Island IMO, with shaky to bad areas getting much worse, good to great areas holding their own quite nicely and/or improving (renovation, building and improvements wise, not necessarily price wise just yet) through this market.
lol yeah - as it turns out I did like the analogy.
The biggest difference from previous times is the general state of the economy - especially when you consider it on a global level. I think you'd have to admit it's fairly ugly. I know things will shake out, but there's nothing to indicate we've bottomed or come close, yet. Entering a double dip recession is not the time to make a fair assessment of which of those "good' areas will hold value. I think that will take much more time to tell.
I'm an MLS junkie, I've actually seen an incline in prices in the more desirable towns/school districts.
We're still keeping tabs even though we're about to finally close on a place. The prices haven't dropped much at all in the last 6 months. No incline here though. Whoever's wishing for further bottoming out of prices, pitch a tent.
Real estate rallied like it never did before and the causes (low down payments, little review of borrowers' qualifications, etc) no longer exist so you won't ever see a real estate bubble like that again.
I dunno Mikey, if it's such a terrible analogy, why are you using it to show your own examples and take on the market....
Dman...There is quite alot of inventory under 425K in solid areas, one might not get all they are looking for in a home, but since it is an historic market in many respects, buyers should enact their own history lesson and revert back to the 60's when same sex siblings shared bedrooms, people actually lived and survived (can you believe it?) in a home with one bathroom, and fido never seemed the worse for wear running in circles chasing his tail on 40 X 100 lot.
I've seen many up and down markets in my time and near or at the bottom everyone says 10 to 15 years for a comeback or to reach previous levels, never seems to take that long.
The market does seem to be polarizing on Long Island IMO, with shaky to bad areas getting much worse, good to great areas holding their own quite nicely and/or improving (renovation, building and improvements wise, not necessarily price wise just yet) through this market.
Heres the thing though, those houses "under 425" should actually be "under 300". Lots of this "affordable" inventory are almost double the prices that people paid in 1999-2003. Previous markets returned to normal or sub-normal pricing. This one, in our area, has not. Still got a while to go.
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