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Unread 01-26-2011, 06:35 PM
 
Location: Union County
4,915 posts, read 4,181,462 times
Reputation: 3515
Pequa - I think you're looking too deeply and assigning dual income where it doesn't exist - or at least enough to offset those arguing against 2nd homes, rentals, ad nausea... It seems in general, many people are looking for why this is wrong or "what skews the data".

Median is an excellent statistical judge of populations. Just because someone in the town earns THREE times the mean, it doesn't help Joe Blow making less then the mean one iota. The humrumping on ranks based anecdotally on "knowing plenty of people well off" living in the town doesn't really change the fact that there are an equal number of households making more the median as there are making less then the median.

You all seem to want to turn this into a discussion on averages thinking it should be adjusted higher by some factor of snobbyness when statistics go against that.
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Unread 01-26-2011, 07:55 PM
 
Location: Wellsville, Glurt County
2,846 posts, read 5,653,152 times
Reputation: 1292
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crookhaven View Post
We keep coming back to that question

I think its the rental stock.

Take it a step further how many illegal day laborers are filing w2s?


Crooks
Crooks, it's the primary residence thing....not the rentals or anything else. Number of seniors factors in, number of children factors in, household size factors in significantly for median figures (and plenty others as well) but the reason why most South Fork locales reported median household figures do not line up with preconceived notions is because there are a huge chunk of people who only live there part time.....or report another residence as their primary for whatever reason*. The income reported on your Census form only goes towards your primary residence, it doesn't count twice regardless of wherever you spend most your time.

Take any place in the Hamptons, look at how many households there are and then look at how many actual housing units exist in that location. Here's an easy to follow example, your favorite - Dune Road:

Village of West Hampton Dunes
pop. at 2000 Census: 11
# housing units at 2000 Census: 172

Obviously, 11 people do not share 172 housing units. I know WHD is kind of remote and isolated, and that back in 99-00 they were still rebuilding from the storms, but I picked it since it's a small number and I know you hate percentages

Don't get hung up on the "11 people" figure thinking it's somehow not accurate either. It isn't, obviously....it's just an example. Part-time and full-time population for WHD has increased significantly since then - and I only grabbed the 2000 Census figures because they're on Wikipedia and not the Census Bureau's slow-as-hell PITA website. Pretty sure that if you did find the percentages of full-time occupied homes for the entire South Fork, they would be considerably lower than the rest of Long Island.

Think of the numbers you're looking at on Newsday as representative of the half-or-whatever population of those communities who aren't celebrities or extremely wealthy Manhattanites. The odd everyday working folk, fishermen, real estate agents and - yes - illegal immigrants. Those are reported in the Census, too. These figures don't come from the IRS, it's whatever you report as your income on the Census form. Obviously, the day laborers are not filling those out and sending them back - but the Census Bureau sends people out to canvass neighborhoods and determine where they are and what they probably make. They're very thorough. No estimate is anywhere close to perfect, but it's the most accurate thing we'll ever get.

*=Excuse me for being an idiot if someone explained this already, but I'm not sure why people generally report Manhattan (or whatever) addresses as their primary residence as opposed to the Hamptons. I'm sure there is probably some tax benefit to doing things that way, but I don't know for sure since I'm not a gazillionaire. Next time I get invited out to P-Diddy's crib I'll be sure to ask him what up wit dat.
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Unread 01-26-2011, 08:00 PM
 
7,658 posts, read 9,721,600 times
Reputation: 1192
Quote:
Originally Posted by sean sean sean sean View Post
Crooks, it's the primary residence thing....not the rentals or anything else. Number of seniors factors in, number of children factors in, household size factors in significantly for median figures (and plenty others as well) but the reason why most South Fork locales reported median household figures do not line up with preconceived notions is because there are a huge chunk of people who only live there part time.....or report another residence as their primary for whatever reason*. The income reported on your Census form only goes towards your primary residence, it doesn't count twice regardless of wherever you spend most your time.

Take any place in the Hamptons, look at how many households there are and then look at how many actual housing units exist in that location. Here's an easy to follow example, your favorite - Dune Road:

Village of West Hampton Dunes
pop. at 2000 Census: 11
# housing units at 2000 Census: 172

Obviously, 11 people do not share 172 housing units. I know WHD is kind of remote and isolated, and that back in 99-00 they were still rebuilding from the storms, but I picked it since it's a small number and I know you hate percentages

Don't get hung up on the "11 people" figure thinking it's somehow not accurate either. It isn't, obviously....it's just an example. Part-time and full-time population for WHD has increased significantly since then - and I only grabbed the 2000 Census figures because they're on Wikipedia and not the Census Bureau's slow-as-hell PITA website. Pretty sure that if you did find the percentages of full-time occupied homes for the entire South Fork, they would be considerably lower than the rest of Long Island.

Think of the numbers you're looking at on Newsday as representative of the half-or-whatever population of those communities who aren't celebrities or extremely wealthy Manhattanites. The odd everyday working folk, fishermen, real estate agents and - yes - illegal immigrants. Those are reported in the Census, too. These figures don't come from the IRS, it's whatever you report as your income on the Census form. Obviously, the day laborers are not filling those out and sending them back - but the Census Bureau sends people out to canvass neighborhoods and determine where they are and what they probably make. They're very thorough. No estimate is anywhere close to perfect, but it's the most accurate thing we'll ever get.

*=Excuse me for being an idiot if someone explained this already, but I'm not sure why people generally report Manhattan (or whatever) addresses as their primary residence as opposed to the Hamptons. I'm sure there is probably some tax benefit to doing things that way, but I don't know for sure since I'm not a gazillionaire. Next time I get invited out to P-Diddy's crib I'll be sure to ask him what up wit dat.
Thanks Sean

That seems reasonable.

Whats your take on Lynbrook? Oakdale?LB?


Crooks

Last edited by Crookhaven; 01-26-2011 at 08:09 PM..
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Unread 01-26-2011, 08:03 PM
 
7,658 posts, read 9,721,600 times
Reputation: 1192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pequaman View Post
No, the problem with per capita is, it takes into account the WHOLE population of a village. Even 5 year olds and part-time employees. Not very useful information. Not really much to do with being an avg or a median calc.

That is ultra-simplistic to add 2 numbers and assume they are the same socioeconomically. Are you considering the % in work force at all? 62.5% to 70.2% is a significant difference. If that's the case, then I could say Herricks too is the same socioeconomically as Baldwin and Mass Park, "the numbers are close".?


BALDWIN- % in workforce 70.2%,
% of females in labor force 69.5%
Median earnings for male full-time, year-round workers (dollars) $63,487
Median earnings for female full-time, year-round workers (dollars) $52,145
~Total= $115,500

----------------------------

MASS PARK- % in workforce 62.5%,
percent of females in labor force 55.5%
Median earnings for male full-time, year-round workers $75,915
Median earnings for female full-time, year-round workers (dollars) $43,005
~Total= $119,000

HERRICKS- % in workforce 63.3%,
% of females in labor force 54.2%
Median earnings for male full-time, year-round workers (dollars) $76,618
Median earnings for female full-time, year-round workers (dollars) $43,882
~Total= $120,000

Would you consider all three of these areas to be the same, socioeconomically?

Without even considering Median age of each village, amount of children under 16 and senior citizens on retirement income being greater in Mass park and Herricks than in Baldwin, slightly larger family sizes in Baldwin, more foreign-born residents, more women working rather than staying at home to raise kids... it's way too simplistic to say they are a match because the numbers add up. You could also look at welfare/ssi/poverty levels in each and gather more differences between each town. But even added up, you see that Mass Park/Herricks are higher earning than Baldwin, yet Baldwin is ranked 109, Mass park 116, and Herricks 143. Obviously there's more to it than Median Household Income. The ranks and use of MHI creates erroneous results when comparing LI towns.




Crooks: I've been saying that since the first post, post # 6 of this thread.
"These median household income lists are misleading.
Seanx4 and I had a long discussion on this on another thread.
Many areas are a lot poorer than what the Median Household Income is indicating"
LI communities ranked by income
I dont mean to be difficult Peqs
I just dont get the giant margin for error.

I think when your over the plus/minus 20% mark with any statistical data it really calls the validity into question.
Maybe Im wrong.

Sorry if I gave you a hard time.I just feel like this data is about as valuable as Newsdays crime map.


Crooks
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Unread 01-26-2011, 08:06 PM
 
Location: Wellsville, Glurt County
2,846 posts, read 5,653,152 times
Reputation: 1292
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
Pequa - I think you're looking too deeply and assigning dual income where it doesn't exist - or at least enough to offset those arguing against 2nd homes, rentals, ad nausea... It seems in general, many people are looking for why this is wrong or "what skews the data".

Median is an excellent statistical judge of populations. Just because someone in the town earns THREE times the mean, it doesn't help Joe Blow making less then the mean one iota. The humrumping on ranks based anecdotally on "knowing plenty of people well off" living in the town doesn't really change the fact that there are an equal number of households making more the median as there are making less then the median.

You all seem to want to turn this into a discussion on averages thinking it should be adjusted higher by some factor of snobbyness when statistics go against that.
I agree, it definitely pays to look into all these statistics and understand what their shortcoming are, or why they look one way as opposed to another - but there comes a point where you can't really worry about whether an individual in some town makes $73,500 a year or $73,250 a year and obsess over which is closer to being correct.

Median household is a good figure because it gives the closest "real world" estimate of what each household is working with per year.

Per capita is a good figure because it more accurately shows individual "wealth", earnings-wise at least....but isn't an accurate "real world" indicator, just a good comparative stat.

Why the Census only publishes individual earnings (for adults) broken down by gender is beyond me, but the closest actual indicator would be to find the average for those figures Pequaman posted....which would require going back and figuring what percentage of men and what percentage of women there are in a given area.....and that would be extremely annoying to do for EVERY place on Long Island.

The ones they provide for us are good enough, and as long as you know what you're looking at - they make sense and provide valuable insights.

-----
Did anyone else notice that one of the places that has routinely had one of the highest median household incomes in the COUNTRY was omitted from Newsday's list? Hewlett Bay Park is always in US News or whatever stupid magazine for being one of the richest places on earth. It might be #1 overall, in fact....I haven't checked.
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Unread 01-26-2011, 08:06 PM
 
7,658 posts, read 9,721,600 times
Reputation: 1192
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
Most people get confused because they think "median == average"... it doesn't work that way.

Median - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If you take 5 incomes...

$4.7B
$379,000
$80,000
$79,000
$1

The "median" is $80,000.

This explains how Crooks 8 digit income can't bring up the bikers on UE bennies. They outnumber him.
Thanks Kid.

I get it now.
I was thinking average.

Median doesnt seem like an accurate representation though (be it positively or negatively).

Crooks

PS
I wish I could afford a Harley.
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Unread 01-26-2011, 08:31 PM
 
182 posts, read 227,398 times
Reputation: 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crookhaven View Post
Thanks Kid.

I get it now.
I was thinking average.

Median doesnt seem like an accurate representation though (be it positively or negatively).

Crooks

PS
I wish I could afford a Harley.
I thought y'all had it in your mattresses? Go to Lighthouse with your Serta!

Median is a better representation in places which have outliers like the people in Rocky Point who won that big Lotto a year ago.
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Unread 01-26-2011, 08:36 PM
 
7,658 posts, read 9,721,600 times
Reputation: 1192
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4DogsImDone View Post
I thought y'all had it in your mattresses? Go to Lighthouse with your Serta!

Median is a better representation in places which have outliers like the people in Rocky Point who won that big Lotto a year ago.
That was Miller Place and apparently its reflected in the data.

As for my Harley fund....it recently became a college fund and I have no regrets from the Serta.

When its time I'll prolly just go to Riverhead.
http://www.easternharley.com/

Crooks
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Unread 01-26-2011, 08:46 PM
 
182 posts, read 227,398 times
Reputation: 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crookhaven View Post
That was Miller Place and apparently its reflected in the data.

As for my Harley fund....it recently became a college fund and I have no regrets from the Serta.

When its time I'll prolly just go to Riverhead.
New York Harley-Davidson Buell Motorcycle Dealer - Eastern Harley-Davidson

Crooks
Having dealt with both and Oakdale HD from experience I can tell you the Riverhead owners are one step better than used car salesmen. Keep the Serta for college.

If the median was used the Miller Place people shouldn't have impacted it by much. Wait a sec. Someone else said the data is up until 2007? When did they win?
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Unread 01-26-2011, 08:56 PM
 
7,658 posts, read 9,721,600 times
Reputation: 1192
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4DogsImDone View Post
Having dealt with both and Oakdale HD from experience I can tell you the Riverhead owners are one step better than used car salesmen. Keep the Serta for college.

If the median was used the Miller Place people shouldn't have impacted it by much. Wait a sec. Someone else said the data is up until 2007? When did they win?
Last year.
Mega Millions $162-million couple unveiled, reveal plans

Thanks for the heads up.
I kinda want a Bonnie too.

We'll see

Crooks
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