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Old 08-19-2007, 09:16 PM
 
1,876 posts, read 83,936 times
Reputation: 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by MiddleIslander View Post
I saw that too, and it doesn't mean a thing... a 1-2% increase isn't an increase at all, because it is below the rate of inflation. I'd argue that's it's a wash, if not a loss. Aren't your dollars worth less this year than they weren't last year? Mine are.
Good thing they dont factor food or energy into inflation....Its not like that has any bearing on our solvency.

One might argue that its not that housing has shot up since we put chimp in the whitehouse.
Its that the greenback buys a fraction of what it used to.

George W. Bush or Chimpanzee? (http://www.bushorchimp.com/ - broken link)

Everythings up threefold since 2k except wages.

Moth3rfv3kers be trippin'

C
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Old 08-20-2007, 09:29 AM
 
95 posts, read 114,608 times
Reputation: 16
http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/shiller_graph.gif (broken link)

This can't continue forever, can it?
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Old 08-20-2007, 09:33 AM
 
1,876 posts, read 83,936 times
Reputation: 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by MiddleIslander View Post
http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/shiller_graph.gif (broken link)

This can't continue forever, can it?
Ask people in the Bay area or beter yet SoCal.
BTW
NYC Market is the still hot.
We'll see.
C
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Old 08-20-2007, 09:36 AM
 
2,931 posts, read 5,417,964 times
Reputation: 737
Very interesting chart. No, this can't continue forever. However, keep in mind that national averages do not always apply to Long Island. We have a unique real estate market here. Prices tend to be supported by the simple fact that there is no place to build new housing, so as long as the population increases and new households are formed, prices should overall continue their upward trend. This is not to say that we will not go through periods of market correction, as we are now.
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Old 08-20-2007, 09:46 AM
 
1,876 posts, read 83,936 times
Reputation: 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomMoser View Post
Very interesting chart. No, this can't continue forever. However, keep in mind that national averages do not always apply to Long Island. We have a unique real estate market here. Prices tend to be supported by the simple fact that there is no place to build new housing, so as long as the population increases and new households are formed, prices should overall continue their upward trend. This is not to say that we will not go through periods of market correction, as we are now.
Precisely.

Finite land mass....think Manhattan but on a larger scale.

The buildout of LI is less than 10 years away and as best I can tell we wont be building anymore open space.

I believe you will see Million dollar teardowns in the next 15 years.
(We just had a 550k teardown in Rocky Point....250k teardowns here are not uncommon at all.)

C
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Old 08-20-2007, 10:01 AM
 
95 posts, read 114,608 times
Reputation: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy View Post
Ask people in the Bay area or beter yet SoCal.
BTW
NYC Market is the still hot.
We'll see.
C
Sure, lets do that.

San Diego, Ca:
Houses available - 928
Pending foreclosures - 5025

Los Angeles, Ca:
Properties available - 2893
Pending foreclosures - 6948

San Jose, Ca:
Properties Available - 185
Pending Foreclosures - 2282

Stockton, Ca
Properties Available - 136
Pending Foreclosures - 3866

Source: Homes.com - Real Estate and Homes For Sale.


The more I look, the more I think the places with the highest prices are going to be the hardest hit by the subprime mortgages. Why? Because it's the only way average people can afford homes in these areas.
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Old 08-20-2007, 10:24 AM
 
1,876 posts, read 83,936 times
Reputation: 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by MiddleIslander View Post
Sure, lets do that.

San Diego, Ca:
Houses available - 928
Pending foreclosures - 5025

Los Angeles, Ca:
Properties available - 2893
Pending foreclosures - 6948

San Jose, Ca:
Properties Available - 185
Pending Foreclosures - 2282

Stockton, Ca
Properties Available - 136
Pending Foreclosures - 3866

Source: Homes.com - Real Estate and Homes For Sale.


The more I look, the more I think the places with the highest prices are going to be the hardest hit by the subprime mortgages. Why? Because it's the only way average people can afford homes in these areas.
Theres no average people left.....thats the part youre not getting.

Go there.

For every foreclosure in SoCal or the BayArea theres a dotcom millionaire waiting to scoop it up.

Theres PLENTY of money on LI sitting on the sidelines waiting to do the same.

This correction is by design (AKA buying opportunity) but make no mistakes about it this is a rich mans island

If youre looking to be validated about your decision to wait for LI to become affordable again...it's gone, you missed it, it's over.

The days of the 175k starter home with low taxes are never coming back to LI.

My suggestion to you is to start looking elsewhere(I wish I did....we're off to CT for relief) or if you see something that speaks to you, go for it.


Sorry Bud

Best of luck
C

PS
This really should be married to the other thread Mr Moderator...weve been here many times.
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Old 08-20-2007, 10:29 AM
 
Location: Little Babylon
3,558 posts, read 4,274,057 times
Reputation: 1147
Quote:
Originally Posted by MiddleIslander View Post
As for buying vs. renting, and tax savings... I punched in all the numbers today. Basically I redid my 2006 taxes as if I owned a home. I came out far worse than I would have if I just kept on renting. Keep in mind I am married filling jointly, so my standard deduction is $10.5k. If I deduct all the mortgage interest and property taxes, I still come out way above the cost of renting an equivalent place!

There is no benefit in owning vs renting in the current market. It just doesn't exist at all. I could earn much more by carefully investing my down payment money.
Yup, but people don't want to hear about that. Besides the taxes toss in the money you pay for utilities and maintenance and suddenly all the money is tied up in the house. We bought under what we could afford and have made quite a bit of money with our investments.
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Old 08-20-2007, 10:33 AM
 
1,876 posts, read 83,936 times
Reputation: 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkStreetKid View Post
Yup, but people don't want to hear about that. Besides the taxes toss in the money you pay for utilities and maintenance and suddenly all the money is tied up in the house. We bought under what we could afford and have made quite a bit of money with our investments.
Thats the right move...smaller mortgage and enough left over to feed Mr Roth
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Old 08-20-2007, 10:37 AM
 
95 posts, read 114,608 times
Reputation: 16
I think you're under the mistaken impression that I can't afford current prices, and I'm being sucked under by wishful thinking. I absolutely can afford current prices for housing!

But why do that when we're poised for a correction in home values? Everyone can agree that home values will go down, it's only a question of how much and for how long. It might be 5%. It might be 10%. It might be even more. Every percentage point means thousands of dollars of equity lost. It's hard to save money, even with a decent income. I can't afford to lose out by buying in at the wrong moment.

I have enough money to buy a nice house with a 30% down payment. But the fact is I will be buying into communities consisting mainly of people who make far less than I do, with all household income combined. Is this really a smart thing to do?
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