Starter home prices (Coram, Riverhead, Shirley: fit in, for sale, real estate market)

[MiddleIslander]

I've noticed that home prices dropping, and homes staying on the market longer and longer. Are we due for a correction in the housing market anytime soon? Some have said the market hit its peak in 2005-2006 and has been downhill ever since. As I drive through neighborhoods, there are for sale signs everywhere! We went from a seller's market to a buyer's market in just a year. Does it make any sense to buy now? Won't home prices just continue to fall?

I've been a renter here on the island for many years, first living in an illegal basement apartment for over four years (no choice!), then a real apartment. After many improvements in my earning ability I'm about ready to buy my first home, but things aren't looking very good at the moment. My wife doesn't work. We're a single income family.

I don't plan on buying until next spring, so at the very least I'll be waiting about a year. Is buying something we should be thinking about? Or should we continue saving money until the time is right?

[clamboy]

Originally Posted by MiddleIslander

I've noticed that home prices dropping, and homes staying on the market longer and longer. Are we due for a correction in the housing market anytime soon? Some have said the market hit its peak in 2005-2006 and has been downhill ever since. As I drive through neighborhoods, there are for sale signs everywhere! We went from a seller's market to a buyer's market in just a year. Does it make any sense to buy now? Won't home prices just continue to fall?

I've been a renter here on the island for many years, first living in an illegal basement apartment for over four years (no choice!), then a real apartment. After many improvements in my earning ability I'm about ready to buy my first home, but things aren't looking very good at the moment. My wife doesn't work. We're a single income family.

I don't plan on buying until next spring, so at the very least I'll be waiting about a year. Is buying something we should be thinking about? Or should we continue saving money until the time is right?

Hard to tell.

Looking at the Bay Area

SF took a breather in the early 90s then never looked back.

Id buy in this market.
This is either a respite on LI that were about a year into....or USA is collectvely failing.

The good new/bad news is LI will tank first then recover first.

C

Moderator please marry this to the other identical thread.

[MiddleIslander]

Ordinarily I would agree with you but the other thread is over a year old and has drifted way off topic...

[KellyFG]

Here's my opinion, I'm not a realtor but I have a sick infatuation with the real estate market & I've followed it obessively since the late 80's.
I think prices will continue to drop, slowly & not drastically. The unknown variable will be the number of short sales that actually go through. There are a few homes (in not so hot areas) that are being sold as short sales for considerably less than market value. Once these sell they become comps for other houses in that specific area and the snowball effect intensifies. I was told by a realtor that works in an office that only lists homes in an upscale south shore waterfront region that her office has approx 35 short sales & foreclosures as listings right now. They are NOT being marketed as such to try to retain the dignity of other listings in that office. Next is the issue of Jumbo mortgages not being avaiable at the same low rates, you will see more & more homes in the 450-500 range sitting longer & sellers eventually dropping their drawers so buyers can get a loan. The higher rates & stiffer regulations will mean no more liars loans, so there will actually be signifigantly less buyers than two months ago which will equal even higher inventory.
MLSLI had 17,000 homes listed in the spring of 2006, there are 34,000 now.
That's huge.

So you see things will get worse, then we have the 2008 election, shortly after we will be pulling out of Iraq. Anyway we do it will be a loser & will affect our entire economy and probably the price of gas. So that could be another back breaker for the RE market nationally.

Will you see starters in highly desirable areas for 200k? Absolutely not, but there will be good deals for savvy buyers.
Keep your eye on your target area so when you're ready in the Spring you know everything there is to know about the town & schools.
Good luck!

[clamboy]

Originally Posted by MiddleIslander

Ordinarily I would agree with you but the other thread is over a year old and has drifted way off topic...

Cool
Then lets keep this one on track then.

Have you been looking?

Where?

Whats keeping you out?

C

[MiddleIslander]

I've been driving around areas in the Pine Barrens region, and just a bit east of there. Middle Island, Rocky Point, Ridge, North Shirley, Manorville, Riverhead, Coram, Selden, Port Jefferson Station, and the like.

I have indeed been looking, but only to get a general idea of what is available and what I can expect to get for my money.

The only thing keeping me out of the market is a gut feeling that the market will tank, and take me out along with it. I have hard earned cash saved up for a down payment - I don't want my precious equity to vanish if I buy too early in a downward trending market!

I'm looking for a starter house that other gen-x'ers might appreciate. I don't care too much for space, just a smart floor plan, a nice kitchen, and perhaps good schools for possible children in the future.

Like the real estate watcher posted above, I am worried about the volatility of the current market. I want to buy when prices are going up, not down, and I'm willing to wait and continue to save for that time.

[fopt65]

Originally Posted by MiddleIslander

I've been driving around areas in the Pine Barrens region, and just a bit east of there. Middle Island, Rocky Point, Ridge, North Shirley, Manorville, Riverhead, Coram, Selden, Port Jefferson Station, and the like.

I have indeed been looking, but only to get a general idea of what is available and what I can expect to get for my money.

The only thing keeping me out of the market is a gut feeling that the market will tank, and take me out along with it. I have hard earned cash saved up for a down payment - I don't want my precious equity to vanish if I buy too early in a downward trending market!

I'm looking for a starter house that other gen-x'ers might appreciate. I don't care too much for space, just a smart floor plan, a nice kitchen, and perhaps good schools for possible children in the future.

Like the real estate watcher posted above, I am worried about the volatility of the current market. I want to buy when prices are going up, not down, and I'm willing to wait and continue to save for that time.

If you are looking for a home that you plan to live in for a long time, don't worry about timing the market perfectly. If you find something you like that is reasonably priced and you can get it without exotic financing, go for it. Even if you lose some of your "precious equity", the money you save by not renting and the tax breaks of home ownership will help it even out.

[clamboy]

Originally Posted by MiddleIslander

I've been driving around areas in the Pine Barrens region, and just a bit east of there. Middle Island, Rocky Point, Ridge, North Shirley, Manorville, Riverhead, Coram, Selden, Port Jefferson Station, and the like.

I have indeed been looking, but only to get a general idea of what is available and what I can expect to get for my money.

The only thing keeping me out of the market is a gut feeling that the market will tank, and take me out along with it. I have hard earned cash saved up for a down payment - I don't want my precious equity to vanish if I buy too early in a downward trending market!

I'm looking for a starter house that other gen-x'ers might appreciate. I don't care too much for space, just a smart floor plan, a nice kitchen, and perhaps good schools for possible children in the future.

Like the real estate watcher posted above, I am worried about the volatility of the current market. I want to buy when prices are going up, not down, and I'm willing to wait and continue to save for that time.

I think youre looking in the right area.

Id focus on Ridge, Rocky Point and Sound Beach for best bang for the buck.
Manorville's a good choice but it can be pricey and some of the schools are eh.

Those other areas can be iffy.

Kelly can give you some great insight on Panamaoka and Ridge.
I love Rocky Point so if you have any questions ask away.
Heres a link

Were selling and relocating to CT.
(Our home is open floor plan/ceilings by the beach etc.)
PM me for details if you wish.

C

[VillageOfWestbury]

Originally Posted by MiddleIslander

I've noticed that home prices dropping, and homes staying on the market longer and longer. Are we due for a correction in the housing market anytime soon? Some have said the market hit its peak in 2005-2006 and has been downhill ever since. As I drive through neighborhoods, there are for sale signs everywhere! We went from a seller's market to a buyer's market in just a year. Does it make any sense to buy now? Won't home prices just continue to fall?

I've been a renter here on the island for many years, first living in an illegal basement apartment for over four years (no choice!), then a real apartment. After many improvements in my earning ability I'm about ready to buy my first home, but things aren't looking very good at the moment. My wife doesn't work. We're a single income family.

I don't plan on buying until next spring, so at the very least I'll be waiting about a year. Is buying something we should be thinking about? Or should we continue saving money until the time is right?

Believe it or not, but according to CNN money (I think), Nassau-Suffolk actually saw roughly a 1% to 2% INCREASE in home values in 2007 over 2006....go figure....

[MiddleIslander]

I saw that too, and it doesn't mean a thing... a 1-2% increase isn't an increase at all, because it is below the rate of inflation. I'd argue that's it's a wash, if not a loss. Aren't your dollars worth less this year than they were last year? Mine are.

As for buying vs. renting, and tax savings... I punched in all the numbers today. Basically I redid my 2006 taxes as if I owned a home. I came out far worse than I would have if I just kept on renting. Keep in mind I am married filling jointly, so my standard deduction is $10.5k. If I deduct all the mortgage interest and property taxes, I still come out way above the cost of renting an equivalent place!

There is no benefit in owning vs renting in the current market. It just doesn't exist at all. I could earn much more by carefully investing my down payment money.