Why would someone want to buy into a collapsing market? (Levittown: mortgage, credit)

[NY62]

Originally Posted by BlueSkyHoliday

Maybe I am missing something in this logic but wouldn't this only work for someone who is going from renting to buying?

Because if a homeowner on Long Island waits at least 12 months to buy their next house (for the market to come down that 6%), then wouldn't they also be taking a 6% loss on the house that they'd be selling then? In other words the market then would be equally bad for them as a seller as it would be better for them as a buyer -- so what would be the real difference between selling/buying now versus selling/buying 12 months from now?

Nothing zero zip. bubble people just try to justify sitting on there hands.

[Redd Jedd]

Originally Posted by clamboy

Babylon 60 min.

Ronkonkoma 75 min

Smithtown 75 Min.

Be Bold

Think Thinker Think.

How do you think these towns were built Thinker
If theres a stop,...theres a commuter.
Do you think people are taking the LIRR from Port Jeff to Kings Park for daytrips and to sight see.

As for 45k in E Setauket a few yers ago ...please put down the pipe.
People must like what they came home to since there are many commuters who live there ...plus the schools are very good in 3v.

Think

C

PS
If your thinking Great Neck...you better brush up on your Farsi.

I'd agree with Thinker on this one. It goes back to perspecitve. If you grew up or lived in eastern Suffolk and want to work in Manhattan, your position would be that this is the way it is. For someone who grew up in Nassau or came from an area where commutes average an hour or less, this would not be acceptable. A station on any line on the Nassau/Suffolk boarder is roughly an hour ride to Penn. For those working downtown add 25 minutes on the subway, plus the walk to your building. On the home side, add the time to drive and park. Some may feel nearly 2 hours one way is acceptable, other won't. Depends on where you came from, where you are in your career, what you consdier quality of life, etc... Obviously a lot of people think it is acceptable since so many are doing it. These are commuter towns to some extent. Others, like me, have had enough and would rather spend that time with the family.

[The Thinker]

Just because you spend 75 minutes on the train doesn't mean your commute is only 75 minutes long. Maybe your experience differs, but when I was doing the commute, I had to drive to the train station and find parking. It was a 10 minute drive, depending on how I hit the lights, so to be safe and allow for the lights and parking, I would leave my house 20 minutes before the scheduled departure time. Then, from the moment I would arrive in Penn station to the moment I walked through the doors at work, another 20 minutes would have passed. Assuming your experience was similar, that 75 minute train ride becomes a 115 minute commute (just short of 2 hours each was). That's when the LIRR was running on time, of course, "on time" is defined as under 5 minutes late, and even by that definition, my trains were rarely on time.

If you have a 9 to 5 type of job maybe you could swing the 2 hour commute each way, but even then, thats 4 hours a day that is completely wasted. I know people do it. I would rather rent in Great Neck than waste my time and money on some top-dollar starter home in Port Jeff. If I had to learn Farsi, so be it.

[clamboy]

Originally Posted by Redd Jedd

I'd agree with Thinker on this one. It goes back to perspecitve. If you grew up or lived in eastern Suffolk and want to work in Manhattan, your position would be that this is the way it is. For someone who grew up in Nassau or came from an area where commutes average an hour or less, this would not be acceptable. A station on any line on the Nassau/Suffolk boarder is roughly an hour ride to Penn. For those working downtown add 25 minutes on the subway, plus the walk to your building. On the home side, add the time to drive and park. Some may feel nearly 2 hours one way is acceptable, other won't. Depends on where you came from, where you are in your career, what you consdier quality of life, etc... Obviously a lot of people think it is acceptable since so many are doing it. These are commuter towns to some extent. Others, like me, have had enough and would rather spend that time with the family.

I guess it all depends on what youre coming home to.
A place to rent ...or a place to own.

It used to be that coming to Nassau was an escape from the City.
Now Im not even sure if coming out to Suffolk is.


I commuted from Babylon and Ronkonkoma to 57th(both are prime commuter towns for Suffolk).
It wasnt that bad.

For Moderator cut: inappropriate language sake people are commuting from Newburgh and beyond these days.
NYC is now a 90 mile bullseye(Welcome to LA)

Youre right though ....its all relative.

C

[NY62]

Originally Posted by The Thinker

East Seatauket is a 2 hour commute each way to the city. That is completely unacceptable! If you are a professional working in the city, you are working 9am to 7pm just to afford a plain Jane house out in the sticks. When you add in the commute you are away from from 7am to 9pm. And for what, to buy a house that sold for $45,000 a few years ago?

Come on, if you are a busy professional commuting from the city, you really can't get much further out than the Hicksville station of the LIRR. If you want a house in a decent school district, you are looking at Great Neck, Roslyn, Plainview/OBP, Syosset, Woodbury, Jericho, etc. And to get yourself in an ok starter house there, you are looking at $600,000 easy.

Sure you could save some money if you live in Port Jefferson, but if you are to have any quality of life at all, you have to work out east as well, and it can be quite difficult to make the requisite $140,000 annual household income to safely afford a $350,000 house if your are working in Port Jeff.

Do you see my point?

I know plenty of families pulling down more than that , and yes they work out here in the sticks as you put it. you are just showing how ignorant you really are with these coments, 45000. for a house a couple of years ago? I take it you are either from nassau queens or the city. And we are hillbillies in the country , I wish it was still like that. You dont have to work in the city to make money that is bullsh** . Two suffolk cops can pull down 200000. how about 1 cop and a deli manager at a supermarket 170000. I know guys that work in junkyards that make 100gs. I do mortgages I see what people make and where they make it and I am talking full doc not bull. I know two teachers that retired to a home on the ocean on dune road. maybe in nassau there is a big bubble but not here, not like that. If you work in the city and dont want to commute like tons of others then buy something in the city stop whining. I guess our kids all go to one room school houses out here in the sticks, and they dont learn nothing except how to milk the cows. maybe the abc's if they are lucky,. If I would have known this I would have bought my aunts house in old bethpage. I was wondering what type of professional are you talking about, that you only have in that way? I have to go feed the chickens I will check in later. Oh yea clam are you going to the hoe down tuesday night at the do drop in? if so bring the pickup again filled with hey, the youngens love that.

[The Thinker]

NY62, its easy to talk about specific people who work in eastern Suffolk and make good livings. However, one should talk about the average household income and not just the income of "Dave" and "Shirley" who happened to buy a mortgage from you and show you their tax returns. According to this very website, the 2005 median household income was $77,109.

This means that the average Suffolk family in 2005 should pay no more than $192,772.50 for their house (using the 2.5x household income rule of thumb).

As it where, neither housing prices nor incomes have changed much since 2005 so these numbers still work.

Now then, it has been said on this forum that decent starter homes can be found in the $350,000 range. This would be 4.5x the household income of your average family.

When the average family cannot come close to affording the cheapest starter homes, you have a problem. The problem is exploding inventory followed by devastating price cuts. Prices will continue to crash until the starter-family can afford the starter home, and that is a long way down.

[clamboy]

Originally Posted by The Thinker

NY62, its easy to talk about specific people who work in eastern Suffolk and make good livings. However, one should talk about the average household income and not just the income of "Dave" and "Shirley" who happened to buy a mortgage from you and show you their tax returns. According to this very website, the 2005 median household income was $77,109.

This means that the average Suffolk family in 2005 should pay no more than $192,772.50 for their house (using the 2.5x household income rule of thumb).

As it where, neither housing prices nor incomes have changed much since 2005 so these numbers still work.

Now then, it has been said on this forum that decent starter homes can be found in the $350,000 range. This would be 4.5x the household income of your average family.

When the average family cannot come close to affording the cheapest starter homes, you have a problem. The problem is exploding inventory followed by devastating price cuts. Prices will continue to crash until the starter-family can afford the starter home, and that is a long way down.

LI real estate has always defied gravity and will continue to do for many years so due to its beaches, proximity to NYC and finite land mass.
Rich people will always want to call her home and theres plenty of money waiting to pounce.
That's how fortunes are made.

This correction is by design...make no mistakes about it.
I think we're more than half way through it as we speak

Congratulations ...you just thought yourself right out of the Market.
Hooray for fear and hello North Carolina!!!!!
Go Tarheels!

C

PS

Read this thread form the beginning, then think,then speak.
Its a hell of a read

PSS

Where he hell is Bubbleboy?
I guess he was here just to plug his site.

[ClarkStreetKid]

I just got back to my comfortable and affordable digs from doing a 4/3 split of WDW and a Disney Cruise. While you guys are debating LI real estate others are living well. Let the rich people call LI home, at this point they can keep it. Me, I care more about my savings and expendable income.

Remember two things, you can't eat beach, and it's all about relocation, relocation, relocation.

[Redd Jedd]

Originally Posted by clamboy

LI real estate has always defied gravity and will continue to do for many years so due to its beaches, proximity to NYC and finite land mass.
Rich people will always want to call her home and theres plenty of money waiting to pounce.
That's how fortunes are made.

This correction is by design...make no mistakes about it.
I think we're more than half way through it as we speak

Congratulations ...you just thought yourself right out of the Market.
Hooray for fear and hello North Carolina!!!!!
Go Tarheels!

C

PS

Read this thread form the beginning, then think,then speak.
Its a hell of a read

PSS

Where he hell is Bubbleboy?
I guess he was here just to plug his site.

But it did not defy gravity in the late 80's and early 90's. It took nearly 10 years to get back to the highs reached back then. What factors are governing prices now? Every cycle is different.

For LI to stay healthy, Wall Street needs to be healthy. Wall Street money goes a long way on LI. As long as that Wall Street money circulates on LI, prices will remain stable or go up - to a point. Fundamentals will take over if given the chance.

As you say, the bottom of the middle class on LI is being defined at a higher income level weather it be from dual earner households or higher earners moving in, pushing out the people who make the median income. While working in Manhattan, I knew a number of people who lived in the NJ/PA border areas, as well as a couple who lived in the north east suburbs of Philly.

[clamboy]

Originally Posted by ClarkStreetKid

I just got back to my comfortable and affordable digs from doing a 4/3 split of WDW and a Disney Cruise. While you guys are debating LI real estate others are living well. Let the rich people call LI home, at this point they can keep it. Me, I care more about my savings and expendable income.

Remember two things, you can't eat beach, and it's all about relocation, relocation, relocation.

But you missed us so much you couldnt wait to visit.

Disney cruise is a blast ...we go every year We do the Eastern 7day/Then Park it.

One of the perks of living beneath your means

C