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If you are selling and buying, it's a wash unless you are willing to sell, rent, then buy.
Well, if you are selling and not buying a more expensive house, it is a wash. If you are trading up or a first time buyer, you are only cutting your own throat.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GCGuy
If you are looking to buy a house and live there for 20 yrs, then I think many would take their chances that in 2027 the prices will be higher.
The problem with this is that just because you plan to be there 20 years, doesn’t mean you will. Also, why buy now? Why not just rent a house? You can’t tell the difference between a rented house and an “owned” house. Buy when prices make sense, they will some day; why overpay?
Quote:
Originally Posted by GCGuy
Sure, there's chance it won't be, but that's not been the case for much of history.
Prices rising as much as they did in such a short time haven’t been the case for ALL OF HISTORY.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GCGuy
As far as asking prices dropping, so what...perhaps asking prices are way out of line and now they are straightening out?
Yes; they are. We’ll know when prices are getting close to what they should be when inventories come down at least close to what they historically have been.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GCGuy
It's tough to predict the future no matter how many charts are referenced.
It’s even tougher when you don’t reference any of them.
Curious about LongIslandBublbles motivations. You seem to have very well thought out ideas on the subject and have invested a lot of time and energy. Not to mention a web-site devoted to the issue. Is this all simply for public service or is there more to it?
Curious about LongIslandBublbles motivations. You seem to have very well thought out ideas on the subject and have invested a lot of time and energy. Not to mention a web-site devoted to the issue. Is this all simply for public service or is there more to it?
I originally started my research after I saw prices were rising faster than the norm. I was looking to buy myself. As I learned more about what was going on, I noticed that the local media was hiding the truth of what was happening and cheering on the market. That didn't surprise me a bit being that the RE industry practically owns Newsday.
I figured since I have been doing all this research for myself, why not share it with others. I know several families that were destroyed by the last bust and I feel if I don't help people; then I am just as guilty as those who profit from them.
I don't make any money doing what I am doing, as you can see there are absolutely no ads on my site; yes, there are SOME people who actually want to help others without having to profit from it. I look at this as more like a hobby for me now; like people who track storms. If I can help people at the same time; then why not do that?
I don't see a bottom until 2014 at the minimum based on my research and how Long Island responds to a bust.
We may see prices stop dropping in 09, but just because prices stopped dropping, doesn't mean we hit a bottom; don't forget, until prices are rising with inflation, the prices are really still falling. I believe it won't be until 2014 before prices will start to realign with inflation.
...and yes we are going to have a nasty recession and it's going to be the worst recession this generation has ever seen.
But this kind of thinking is just silly
Low interest rates are not a reason to buy; it's ironic, but the true best time to buy is when interest rates are high. When they are high, people tend to pay less for houses (paying less for the same house is a good thing ); when interest rates rise, the sellers just increase their prices as we have witnessed what 1% teaser rates have done. You know; it's a good thing they didn't have 0.01% teaser rates or the cheapest house would have probably been $5M.
When you buy at a high interest rate, you are getting the best price on the house; when interest rates come back down, you can refinance to a lower rate further decreasing your expenses; it's no wonder that the boomers who sell their houses make the biggest profits.
Now you're comparing apples to oranges.
As far as your parents; just like mine or anyone else’s, back then a house costed approx 2 – 2.5 times one parents salary and only one had to work, now it's 8 - 12 times.
What would you rather have?
The house you bought cost twice what you make in a year at 11% interest rate or 8 -12 times at 6.28%
I know real estate agents tend to brainwash the public into believing that it's ALWAYS a good time to buy a house; just like a car salesman will tell you it's always a good time to buy a car or a barber saying it's always a good time for a cut.
Buying is only better than renting AFTER the market stabilizes; when prices are based on fundamentals. Your house has a P/E ratio; if the monthly costs to own it (mortgage,taxes,insurance,and maintenance) are higher than what you can actually rent it for, you are overpaying and you are better off renting it.
I was going to buy a house in 2001 to live in; I was outbid by someone who was irrational; I let them have the house. Since then, I have observed this irrationality in the market and decided to sit tight, do research and wait it out.
If I would have bought then; I would probably feel very rich right now and maybe I would have done alright.
If I would have bought in 2005/2006, I would have already been deep in the red right now. If you take all the rent I paid since 2001, the prices on those houses have come down more than what I paid in rent so I am already ahead even if I bought today...but why should I do that when it is going to fall much more.
Buying a house with a traditional mortgage is the right way; however, prices have been distorted by those who used the creative financing. So even though you are using the right loan, you are overpaying for the house.
Another thing; no one knows how long they are going to be in a house; so claiming you are going to stay long term is moot. They say on the average, people move every 6 or 7 years for whatever reason.
By the way, my rent is less than my Sisters taxes.
I would agree if this were anywhere but LI.
This is a luxury market whether we care to admit it or not.
(Finite land mass...proximity to NYC...beaches)
Sorry bubblebud the bubbleometer may be flawed.
This island was built upon irrational exuberance.
The end isnt near.
IMHO were pretty damn close to bottom if not there already.
I do believe that once we bottom, think this market will run and most likely never look back.
(like the Bay Area in the 90s)
The buyers are out there ...theyre just spooked.
We had healthy foot traffic at out open house last weekend and were currently entertaining a strong offer.
If we decide to accept...and not got to CT.
I would definitely buy into this market knowing the top is behind us.
This is a fundamental corrrection but it is also a psychological corrrection as well.
I think many towns were under valued pre boom(Rocky Point included).
I also think many towns were overpriced (Too many to list).
I do believe we will see a more homogenous LI after the shakeout.
Shorelines will always command a premium....everything else(with few exceptions) will be pretty close $wise per sq ft.
As I said before ...we're really just one big angry town.
Best
C
PS
As long as the top 2% of America has most of the money....LI has nothing to worry about.
I originally started my research after I saw prices were rising faster than the norm. I was looking to buy myself. As I learned more about what was going on, I noticed that the local media was hiding the truth of what was happening and cheering on the market. That didn't surprise me a bit being that the RE industry practically owns Newsday.
I figured since I have been doing all this research for myself, why not share it with others. I know several families that were destroyed by the last bust and I feel if I don't help people; then I am just as guilty as those who profit from them.
I don't make any money doing what I am doing, as you can see there are absolutely no ads on my site; yes, there are SOME people who actually want to help others without having to profit from it. I look at this as more like a hobby for me now; like people who track storms. If I can help people at the same time; then why not do that?
Sounds like a sincere approach. Well said. I am getting married the end of next year (Oct. 08) and am watching and waiting till it gets closer to then in order to look to buy something. We have pets so landlords can be fussy--what can I say, Im a high school biology teacher.
Hopefully it will be a better time for us. People can ask whatever they want for the house--does not mean they'll get it. A house's value and what its worth are two different things when people interpret them. Some of the prices are laughable to me for what these people have and are asking for their house. To each his own.
Thanks for answering clam; this is one problem with Long Island, people think Long Island is immune to the fundamentals.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
This is a luxury market whether we care to admit it or not.
(Finite land mass...proximity to NYC...beaches)
Well, in some ways yes, but buying a tiny little run down box on a tiny plot of land for $300k – up is not luxury. Yes, beaches are nice, but that doesn’t justify having to live on a very tight budget just to be here. If you are very wealthy or make very big bucks (unlike the majority of people here), then you are not living in luxury.
Believe me, I would love to stay here; but if I have to sacrifice my standard of living and my children’s future, I’ll pass.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
Sorry bubblebud the bubbleometer may be flawed.
This island was built upon irrational exuberance.
Yes; and it will bust by it as well. The reason there is so much inventory is that many of the people who “bought” are realizing that they cannot afford to stay there; at the same time, newer buyers cannot get the toxic loans that the how-much-a-month crowd used to drive up the prices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
The end isnt near.
IMHO were pretty damn close to bottom if not there already.
Based on what? Haven’t you even examined the data I have presented here? The inventories are at their highest level now and still rising. I could update the graph to what it is today (40,645); and this is only what is listed on MLS, not FSBO’s which are abundant these days due to their desire to avoid realtor commissions or exclusive listings that don’t show up on MLS.
Also; prices are being reduced on a daily basis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
I do believe that once we bottom, think this market will run and most likely never look back.
(like the Bay Area in the 90s)
The bay area right now is going to get hit even more than Long Island; I believe at the very least we are talking about a 50% haircut.
Don’t compare the 90’s or 80’s to the present; it’s just comparing apples to oranges as has been discussed elsewhere on this thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
The buyers are out there ...theyre just spooked.
We had healthy foot traffic at out open house last weekend and were currently entertaining a strong offer.
There are fewer buyers than you know; many of those who come to your house aren’t buyer’s but sellers who are spying to see how their house compares to yours; and the buyer’s that do come have been to 10’s if not hundreds of other houses.
Many buyers cannot even get a mortgage and don’t know it yet. Yes, some are spooked or they know what I know; but it’s more a liquidity issue than psychology.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
If we decide to accept...and not got to CT.
I would definitely buy into this market knowing the top is behind us.
Even though the bottom is far ahead of you? Then again, if you are buying a house costing a similar price or you sell and wait a couple of years; you will do ok.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
This is a fundamental corrrection but it is also a psychological corrrection as well.
Yes; I agree. It was also a psychological boom because people thought they would get priced out and/or because people thought they were going to get rich.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
I think many towns were under valued pre boom(Rocky Point included).
I also think many towns were overpriced (Too many to list).
Well; you can do an own vs. rent analysis to answer those questions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
I do believe we will see a more homogenous LI after the shakeout.
My opinion based on my research is that prices will fall probably until at least 09 because of the ARM resets and then it will go sideways for many years as it had done before in the 90’s. People will be more rational because they won’t look at housing as an investment, but see it for what it is; a place to live.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
Shorelines will always command a premium....everything else(with few exceptions) will be pretty close $wise per sq ft.
Yes; they will be more expensive relative to houses further inland, but they still will be lower relative to what people are asking right now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
As I said before ...we're really just one big angry town.
Yes; more like stressed out though; just look at the long island index. Long Island Index: Home
Quote:
Originally Posted by clamboy
PS
As long as the top 2% of America has most of the money....LI has nothing to worry about.
I don’t understand what you mean. By the way, you have answered, when did you buy your house in Rocky Point? Also, why do you want to move to CT?
Sounds like a sincere approach. Well said. I am getting married the end of next year (Oct. 08) and am watching and waiting till it gets closer to then in order to look to buy something. We have pets so landlords can be fussy--what can I say, Im a high school biology teacher.
Congratulations! If you are determined to stay here and the landlords don’t like pets; you can rent a whole house out while the market continues to deteriorate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Samrai309
Hopefully it will be a better time for us.
It will be a better time, but not the best to buy. It takes time for all the excesses to be wrung out of the market.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Samrai309
People can ask whatever they want for the house--does not mean they'll get it. A house's value and what its worth are two different things when people interpret them. Some of the prices are laughable to me for what these people have and are asking for their house. To each his own.
Thanks for answering clam; this is one problem with Long Island, people think Long Island is immune to the fundamentals.
Well, in some ways yes, but buying a tiny little run down box on a tiny plot of land for $300k – up is not luxury. Yes, beaches are nice, but that doesn’t justify having to live on a very tight budget just to be here. If you are very wealthy or make very big bucks (unlike the majority of people here), then you are not living in luxury.
Believe me, I would love to stay here; but if I have to sacrifice my standard of living and my children’s future, I’ll pass.
Yes; and it will bust by it as well. The reason there is so much inventory is that many of the people who “bought” are realizing that they cannot afford to stay there; at the same time, newer buyers cannot get the toxic loans that the how-much-a-month crowd used to drive up the prices.
Based on what? Haven’t you even examined the data I have presented here? The inventories are at their highest level now and still rising. I could update the graph to what it is today (40,645); and this is only what is listed on MLS, not FSBO’s which are abundant these days due to their desire to avoid realtor commissions or exclusive listings that don’t show up on MLS.
Also; prices are being reduced on a daily basis.
The bay area right now is going to get hit even more than Long Island; I believe at the very least we are talking about a 50% haircut.
Don’t compare the 90’s or 80’s to the present; it’s just comparing apples to oranges as has been discussed elsewhere on this thread.
There are fewer buyers than you know; many of those who come to your house aren’t buyer’s but sellers who are spying to see how their house compares to yours; and the buyer’s that do come have been to 10’s if not hundreds of other houses.
Many buyers cannot even get a mortgage and don’t know it yet. Yes, some are spooked or they know what I know; but it’s more a liquidity issue than psychology.
Even though the bottom is far ahead of you? Then again, if you are buying a house costing a similar price or you sell and wait a couple of years; you will do ok.
Yes; I agree. It was also a psychological boom because people thought they would get priced out and/or because people thought they were going to get rich.
Well; you can do an own vs. rent analysis to answer those questions.
My opinion based on my research is that prices will fall probably until at least 09 because of the ARM resets and then it will go sideways for many years as it had done before in the 90’s. People will be more rational because they won’t look at housing as an investment, but see it for what it is; a place to live.
Yes; they will be more expensive relative to houses further inland, but they still will be lower relative to what people are asking right now.
Yes; more like stressed out though; just look at the long island index. Long Island Index: Home
I don’t understand what you mean. By the way, you have answered, when did you buy your house in Rocky Point? Also, why do you want to move to CT?
Well then that is good for you! You should accept the offer; I'm sure it is a whole lot more than what you paid. I would bet that the offer that you have (whatever it is) is more than you will get a year from now as the lower comps chew away at your equity like buzzards on a dead mule.
MLSLI
-7.07% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $789k as of 08/18/2007
Asking Price $849k as of 07/19/2007
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