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It was, but we were too young and stupid to know it then. My dad, a car salesman, sold our home in Wantagh down south by the park, that year for $190,000, taxes were about 2-3K?
Now, he couldn't swing it, he'd have to become someone's butler to live there.
When the price of a single family home exceeds 3X the family's annual income, the choice will be to either relocate to where a single family home costs no more than 3X the family's annual income or to increase the family's annual income by bringing in other generations of the same family, who will finance the cost of expanding the house.
There's lots of affordable housing for young couples that have, at least, one set of parent(s) that already own a single-family home: the young couple finances an extension (as well as pays the additional property tax) on the parents' single-family home, converting it into a multi-generational home (not a two-family home, but a multi-generational home) or, if the parents home is not suitable for a multi-gnerational extension/expansion, for the parents to sell their current house, take that money and add money to be financed by the adult children, and buy a larger house more suitable for a multi-generational residence.
Current zoning does not prohibit a multi-generational extension/expansion (extra master bedroom and back staircase to an enlarged kitchen).
Every generation living in their own, separate, single family home was a unique situation that occurred as the U.S. standard of living rose rapidly, but now that the U.S. standard of living is growing less rapidly, the return to the more normal multi-generational home, the situation that existed until the post-WWII period, will, once again, become the norm.
Theoretically, makes good sense, but you haven't met my mother in law Walter.
Walter, you may have a point for the greater NYC area, but not really at all true or even near true for the rest of the country. So, that brings us back to who will move onto the island to buy the homes available for sale given that they are older homes and now require multi-generational living to afford? No one will come here. New business will not come here. The island will remain a huge bedroom community for NYC with little to no sustainable industry of it's own and hence housing prices with decline drastically. Too much old stock inventory for this to be any where near the bottom of the market.
I have to jog your memory Crooks! We've been here 3 years, from PA. We bought 3 years ago, thought we were moving for work, sold, told we weren't moving for work, rented, and now bought again - all in Mt. Sinai.
We bought a newer home where we are happy with only having to change flooring and paint, and having lower taxes. If we could have kept our original house in Mt. Sinai, we would have been very happy too. What we have seen is HUGE drops in large older homes that owners originally put on the market in the 700s this last summer, that we knew were not worth that at all. Now they are still on the market in the 500s. Low 500s too. Older, meaning 20 to 25 year old homes that have not been upgraded at all. Huge homes in nice areas, but requiring so much work that no one will buy them. It is no longer financially viable to remodel. You don't get your money back, so no one wants to buy fixers any more - and they shouldn't. This story is seen all over the island. There is way too much inventory out there for us to be near bottom Crooks. However, if you aren't planning on moving for 15 years, it really doesn't matter. However, for anyone who needs to sell in the next 5 to 10 years, life is not going to be very pretty.
All indications are that investors are perfectly fine lending to the US at real negative rates. Bonds Center - Bond quotes, news, screeners and education information. What are you earning in your savings account? If the dollar collapses or people start pulling out of these safe investments--and into riskier asset classes, then you could start seeing rates rise. But if this happens, prices on everything in $USD will rise first.
LI may be just as unique as it was in 2000, but virtually everything else about the world is different. BRIC countries were not growing as robust as they are today, interest rates and the US dollar are certainly a lot lower than in the past. Globalization is constantly changing everything as well. What I think you're missing is that the Gold Coast and NYC do not have a set "local population" as you stated in this quote:
as of Q3 2011, Nassau/Suffolk was ranked #209 (out of 225) nationally in "affordability" with a median sales price of $378k vs. a median salary of $106k. Per their formula, this means that 56% of the local population will be able to "afford" housing.
Take out the Gold Coast [and the Hamptons] and your $378k figure goes much closer to $300k. What would the formula show at this median price? What I'm saying is, most "local buyers" earning $106k will not be buying in Muttontown. And the Gold Coast + NYC does not have a precise set of "local buyers", i.e., people from allover the state, and the world, buy properties there. Unless someone making $106k thinks they're entitled to live in an area like that, on their income...Just not happening. Levittown or Lindy. Maybe LI buyer expectations are too high of what is really middle class Long Island..which explains the pessimism.
If you take out the good areas, then take out the bad areas too. The bungalows that are falling apart, the 50 yr old Ranches where the pinnacle of style was shag carpet, etc. Your still far exceeding the income-to-debt ration of the national statistic. Also, by removing Hamptons/Gold Coast your removing the incomes as well, pulling that down in the process. Too many variables to consider.
Basically, the sum total of LI realty is this: You have middle class in one of the highest COL areas in the country and they are seeing much brighter futures and greener grass in different pastures.
If you take out the good areas, then take out the bad areas too. The bungalows that are falling apart, the 50 yr old Ranches where the pinnacle of style was shag carpet, etc. Your still far exceeding the income-to-debt ration of the national statistic. Also, by removing Hamptons/Gold Coast your removing the incomes as well, pulling that down in the process. Too many variables to consider.
Basically, the sum total of LI realty is this: You have middle class in one of the highest COL areas in the country and they are seeing much brighter futures and greener grass in different pastures.
Let me sum it up like this:
If you take out the good areas and bad areas (of which there are many more wealthy areas in Nassau), you are left with Levittown. In fact, $91k Nassau median household income is an exact match to Levittowns MHI. Suffolks is almost identical to Lindenhurst's.
Take that for what it's worth... it's affordable. You go to the median home on MLSLI in either town and you get $300k.
I think a lot of people expect to live in Muttontown on their $100k salaries..and furthermore, I believe unions have something to do with perpetuating the false notion that their members need to earn well above this to afford to live here.
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edit: just to throw this out to Mikekid in his post below vvvv
you're ignoring interest rates, tax policy changes, tax benefits of writing off interest, weaker USD$,...among many other factors.
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Take out the top 20 ZIP codes and we're at $300k.
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Fudging statistics
There's a reason they use "median" vs. "mean"... If you're going to throw out the top 20 in Nassau, why wouldn't you throw out the bottom 20 in Suffolk? Beyond that, what happens to the salary number if you throw out the top 20 zip codes in Nassau? You don't think that's skewing the salary big time?
You're trying to turn this into a Nassau only thread excluding certain areas vs. the "LI Market".
Median Housing vs. Median Salary
2000... 156k / 76k = 2.05
2011... 378k / 106k = 3.56
Plus your average person is paying what... $400-$500+ more per month on property taxes in 2011 vs. 2000? So take 4 or 5k off that salary number (take home)... and see how ugly it becomes. I don't buy into your idea that "it's LI, access greatest city, etc". It was always that - the Gold Coast, the Hamptons... these are not new concepts and the discovery of the rich created in the past 11 years. They just bubbled insanely and never came back... which is perfectly relevant to the OP and spirit of this thread.
Basically, the sum total of LI realty is this: You have middle class in one of the highest COL areas in the country and they are seeing much brighter futures and greener grass in different pastures.
Stop you forgot to mention the bagels and beaches
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid
Fudging statistics
You're trying to turn this into a Nassau only thread excluding certain areas vs. the "LI Market".
Median Housing vs. Median Salary
2000... 156k / 76k = 2.05
2011... 378k / 106k = 3.56
Plus your average person is paying what... $400-$500+ more per month on property taxes in 2011 vs. 2000? So take 4 or 5k off that salary number (take home)... and see how ugly it becomes. I don't buy into your idea that "it's LI, access greatest city, etc". It was always that - the Gold Coast,
Take that for what it's worth... it's affordable. You go to the median home on MLSLI in either town and you get $300k.
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Not factoring in the exceptional property tax burden in the NYC metro area (not just Long Island). You're talking about the equivalent of a mortgage payment in taxes alone in some areas (yes, even Levittown).
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