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Old 01-27-2012, 10:37 AM
 
195 posts, read 309,504 times
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Should us young people buy a house thinking long term because buying a starter home now and selling in 7 years to buy another one could result in a higher interest rate on the new mortgage? Or will it likely never get back to the 7% it was in the 70s for my parents
I agree Stony Brook has no bargains still..
And that new expensive looking community across from the Smithhaven mall is ridiculous...can't we just leave some trees and grass?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2011littlehouse View Post
Well, luck is with you - just yesterday Bernanke announced intent to extend the low interest rates at least till end of 2014.

I think, for young people in particular, the smart thing to do (if possible) is to stay put and save good downpayment before making the move - it is one of those rare times when the buyer has that luxury.

Trends are very local, though - interestingly, for Stony Brook, the price per sq ft has been rising steadily for an year now (about $60, $80 rise if you believe the data). Surrounding areas do not exhibit that. This can be due to a switch in the type of houses offered - more smaller houses than bigger ones, and may not reflect change in house price.
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Old 01-27-2012, 10:49 AM
 
13,507 posts, read 16,970,060 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by indiana515 View Post
Should us young people buy a house thinking long term because buying a starter home now and selling in 7 years to buy another one could result in a higher interest rate on the new mortgage? Or will it likely never get back to the 7% it was in the 70s for my parents
I agree Stony Brook has no bargains still..
And that new expensive looking community across from the Smithhaven mall is ridiculous...can't we just leave some trees and grass?
Your issue with buying now and selling in 7 years is that you will have very little equity in 7 years. That, and a rise in interest rates, and no end to crazy property taxes in sight, will probably mean you aren't moving anywhere in 7 years,even if you want to, if you buy now.

I don't see any significant appreciation going on on LI in the near future. I think it will stay flat or dip another 10% in the next 5 years, then maybe start to inch up.

I wouldn't buy right now unless I was looking to stay for 20 years, or downsizing from something I couldn't currently afford, but had to or wanted to stay on LI.
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Old 01-27-2012, 10:57 AM
s13
 
797 posts, read 1,275,135 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SilverBulletZ06 View Post
When I started here I was told that housing would only dip 10% at most then bounce back. 30% and still going later...
I don't know how anyone could think those housing prices were anywhere near realistic or sustainable. Houses in the neighborhood where I grew up, which is middle-class to lower-middle-class depending on which street you're on, were selling for north of $400k circa 2005 - some of which are now back on the market for less than half that amount. Gotta feel for people who moved 20, 30, 40 miles out to places like Mastic because they got "great deals" spending $250k on 2-bedroom houses that are now worth less than the paper their bills are printed on.

Even to the casual observer with little real estate knowledge, it was pretty clear when prices were at their most absurd that something would give - and that was without even knowing all the shady stuff behind the scenes that created the housing bubble. I mean hell, we now know that one of the bigger forces driving the bubble was outright fraud. Don't have the link handy now, but a couple years back NPR did a fascinating segment on the housing bubble and subprime lending... it was over an hour long but well worth the listen.
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Old 01-27-2012, 11:01 AM
 
Location: I'm gettin' there
2,666 posts, read 7,314,383 times
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Just remember, you buy a 400K house today, your house is worth 376K tomorrow (tomorrow - as in the very next day after your closing) regardless of where the market goes.
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Old 01-27-2012, 11:12 AM
 
Location: Queens
155 posts, read 424,917 times
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If property (local and school) taxes continue to climb as they are, when interest rates do rise (which is inevitable in the next five years), the house prices will start to drop to keep in line with affordability.

Most people, especially first-time buyers, are mostly cocnerned with the amount they pay every month.

I really dont see any significant rise in home values over much of LI for the next 5 to probably closer to 10 years. If you are going to buy to build equity, you would probably be better off stashing your money in a CD.

Then again, no one really knows! Just MHO
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Old 01-27-2012, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Selden New York
1,103 posts, read 1,989,272 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daveoliva View Post
It's already happening. Lots of new development going on in the downtown area.
Guess they started work on future ghettos

lol i love long islands state of mind bad area? no problem will just drop a house/ condo god you can"t make this stuff up.
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Old 01-27-2012, 12:42 PM
 
Location: Hempstead
330 posts, read 723,161 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autoracer9 View Post
Guess they started work on future ghettos

lol i love long islands state of mind bad area? no problem will just drop a house/ condo god you can"t make this stuff up.
New housing is only part of it. As much as everyone on this board absolutely hates to believe, there is investment in Hempstead, from a lot of sources. Ten years from now it will be a different place.
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Old 01-27-2012, 12:48 PM
s13
 
797 posts, read 1,275,135 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autoracer9 View Post
lol i love long islands state of mind bad area? no problem will just drop a house/ condo god you can"t make this stuff up.
Dropping condoms all over Hempstead is actually not a bad idea.

Wait, condos?
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Old 01-27-2012, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Massapequa Park
3,172 posts, read 6,724,423 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mongoose65 View Post
I heard 25% and right now am at 25%. Hope that holds. I am no expert and this is just a rational layman's take:

I've been looking at what's out there for $250-$300k in Levittown and it's mostly crap that needs lots of work. My friends had complete updates and a sweet yard in Island Trees and it sold in 30 days for $430k in December (they asked $449k) so people will still snap up a good deal.

I thought $470k was ridiculously inflated for my house (2007-8 estimate) just like I think $340k (zillow) is ridiculously low. It will go back up to $390k the minute the economy turns around because it will be the nicest thing anyone sees in the area after a day of looking at $300k homes.

If and when the economy turns around, in decent school districts, the "flippers" and contractors will snap up everything under $250k and anything in move in condition will start at $325k and up again.

Thus, it will be called a "correction" which is ultimately what it is. IMHO
I'd cosign this. Once the ball gets rolling, that upward momentum is not going to be stopped very easily. The downward pressure this market is seeing fuels it even lower because of the foreclosures. We've probably overextended to the downside. Once you relieve that and start making it profitable to buy the dogs without getting your head handed to you, things should surge from there. Not like this last boom, but I think with rates where they are now it will be a sizable return.

I would agree with some of the stuff clam said in that thread too, believe it or not. About towns that were way out of whack. Some areas made no sense.. even in the height of the bubble (which I think was 05-06). You had places like Elmont costing $300k just to get in. It's $100ks now. Even Hempstead was up there. Those marginal-to-bad towns saw the biggest declines.

What I see here is houses that were in the $500k range back then have not declined all that much (10%-20% tops). You have some exceptions (way overpaid even in that bull market), but on the whole it doesn't seem like it's that bad in the middle-upper price range. It's the lower end homes that are still in the doghouse.
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Old 01-27-2012, 01:00 PM
 
Location: Selden New York
1,103 posts, read 1,989,272 times
Reputation: 518
Quote:
Originally Posted by s13 View Post
Dropping condoms all over Hempstead is actually not a bad idea.
i agree to many people mostly african americans having kids when they can"t take care of them selfs and thats what puts them on welfare.
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