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IMHO - The housing market will continue to slip for at least the next five years. The fantasy that residential homeownership is a wise short or long term financial investment given Long Island property tax, unemployment, economy, and a myriad other issues is being abandoned by more and more folks - even the real estate sales lobby has stopped hawking this fantasy. At the same time, those in the real estate lobby will continue to peddle wishful thinking about a looming market 'stabilization' or 'turnaround' in the same way they used to peddle the investmnet fantasy. Despite the alleged 'good feelings' (the latest real estate sales lobby reasons for buying a home) of owning a home, fewer and fewer folks are willing to lose money to capture the alleged good feelings. Market forces (demographics, economics, etc) are pushing the downward spiral - and there is no end in sight.
the reality is nyc and long island held up very well during this downturn .
we really were unique compared to many other areas because of a unique set of circumstances in our area.
unemployment is very very low among those with college degress. its running below 5%. unemplyment for those without a trade and no high school diploma is running 17%.
those with the highest paying jobs are still gainfully employed and that saved us.
other areas have their educated work force who may have been the highest earners and spenders out of work and thats a killer.
we own quite a few nyc co-ops as an investor and the last 2 we sold went for only 10% down from the all time high.
it took 6 months instead of 6 weeks to sell but the markets have been surprisingly good.
on the other hand we are selling our home in the poconos . its in a very desirable area and has been on the market for 1 year with no offers and very llittle traffic .
i dont see much appreciation as folks now got a rude awakening as to why the house you live in is an expense and not an investment.
this gotta own stigma that has driven the american public has finally ended. kind of like the emperors new clothes story.
Last edited by mathjak107; 05-12-2012 at 09:57 AM..
IMHO - The housing market will continue to slip for at least the next five years. The fantasy that residential homeownership is a wise short or long term financial investment given Long Island property tax, unemployment, economy, and a myriad other issues is being abandoned by more and more folks - even the real estate sales lobby has stopped hawking this fantasy. At the same time, those in the real estate lobby will continue to peddle wishful thinking about a looming market 'stabilization' or 'turnaround' in the same way they used to peddle the investmnet fantasy. Despite the alleged 'good feelings' (the latest real estate sales lobby reasons for buying a home) of owning a home, fewer and fewer folks are willing to lose money to capture the alleged good feelings. Market forces (demographics, economics, etc) are pushing the downward spiral - and there is no end in sight.
I agree. Property tax on LI completely annihilates any idea of "investment".
Prices are coming down to semi-reasonable levels now, which is nice to start seeing. Another 10% or so wouldn't be out of the question IMHO.
I agree, the insane property taxes and two counties drowning in deficits make it tough to see light at the end of the tunnel for a turn around. But, there will always be a buyer for well priced houses in nice areas.
As said before, overpriced homes that need a ton of work are going to sit and sit and sit.
Playing the market for a quick gain or turn around is a dream on LI. That said, am I sorry I bought in 2009? No. I prepared myself for the fact that I might lose 5-10% if the market kept dropping. We got a good deal, so we've actually stayed pretty much where we bought two years ago, making some improvements though.
When is it time to buy? When you find the right house at a price you can afford.
housing costs are just that ,they are the expenses of housing ourselves and family for a lifetime. a home or housing costs will run you many many times more than the residual value of the house quite a few times over .
even if you sell one at a profit a life time of housing costs still have to be paid for.
by the end of a lifetime a home is no investment. it may help you control expenses down the road but thinking of it as an investment may not be the best way to do things.
whether a home is worth 100k or a million is not much of a factor if your living in it.
not owning a home,renting and investing in other asset classes may turn out to be the best deal overall. with markets having produced returns 3 to 4x what residential real estate has long term there is plenty of money for paying rent increases and having a whole lot more left over.
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