Home prices fall a record 10.7% in past year (Huntington, Portland: for sale, houses)

[millertime]

Home prices plunge a record 10.7% in past year - MarketWatch

Home prices in 20 major U.S. metro areas have plunged a record 10.7% in the past year as prices continued to decelerate, Standard & Poor's said Tuesday.
The 20-city Case-Shiller home price index fell a record 2.4% from December to January, the 18th consecutive decline in prices. For 10 major cities, prices fell 2.3% in January and 11.4% for the past 12 months.

"No markets seem to be completely immune from the housing crisis,' said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P.

[gmagg]

I believe it! Its the common theme in most metro areas

[nancy thereader]

I think , though, that where I had wanted to move Portland Oregon, actually had a price appreciation (which is my usual luck).

[GCGuy]

Originally Posted by nancy thereader

I think , though, that where I had wanted to move Portland Oregon, actually had a price appreciation (which is my usual luck).

I read that only Charlotte had a increase of the 21 largest metros...of 1.8%.

[TomMoser]

After 15% to 20% gains each year from 2002-2006, drops of 10% per year for 2007-2008 are not that bad. I think we are just about done and are soon going to return to a more normal market. We'll probably see prices come off a bit more this year, then get back to the historical norm of 2% or so appreciation per year.

[GCGuy]

Originally Posted by TomMoser

After 15% to 20% gains each year from 2002-2006, drops of 10% per year for 2007-2008 are not that bad. I think we are just about done and are soon going to return to a more normal market. We'll probably see prices come off a bit more this year, then get back to the historical norm of 2% or so appreciation per year.

Well said. I've seen articles that actually say houses are at record lows...um, what? Perhaps the drops are record drops, but as you said, prices basically doubled since 01/02...a little pull back is not shocking at all. People just got in over their heads and are getting hit. They gravy train had ended. What can you do?

[millertime]

I think in order for homes to start to appreciation again, the housing inventory will need to be sold off.

In Suffolk there are 12,196* homes for sale. The sales rate was 518** in Jan 08 at that sales rate we have about 2 years worth of inventory.

In Nassau there are 8109* homes with a sales rate of 559** for Jan 08 which is about 1 year worth of inventory.

* From MLS
** From NYSAR

[TomMoser]

Originally Posted by millertime

I think in order for homes to start to appreciation again, the housing inventory will need to be sold off.

In Suffolk there are 12,196* homes for sale. The sales rate was 518** in Jan 08 at that sales rate we have about 2 years worth of inventory.

In Nassau there are 8109* homes with a sales rate of 559** for Jan 08 which is about 1 year worth of inventory.

* From MLS
** From NYSAR

You make a good point. What you are talking about is what we call the "absortion rate". The excess inventory will continue to pressure prices for a while longer. However, in places such as Nassau and Suffolk, you really have to look at it community by community for this data to be statistically significant. In some parts of the island the ratio is much lower, in others it is much higher.

Here is some data by zip code that you may find interesting:

https://www.mlsli.com/ro/research/pdfs/2007_4Q.pdf

[monkeygorilla]

Originally Posted by TomMoser

In some parts of the island the ratio is much lower, in others it is much higher.

Here is some data by zip code that you may find interesting:

https://www.mlsli.com/ro/research/pdfs/2007_4Q.pdf

That is fascinating!! But I wonder why zip code 11743/ Huntington is missing from the list??

[GCGuy]

Originally Posted by TomMoser

You make a good point. What you are talking about is what we call the "absortion rate". The excess inventory will continue to pressure prices for a while longer. However, in places such as Nassau and Suffolk, you really have to look at it community by community for this data to be statistically significant. In some parts of the island the ratio is much lower, in others it is much higher.

Here is some data by zip code that you may find interesting:

https://www.mlsli.com/ro/research/pdfs/2007_4Q.pdf

Great post, Tom, nice work. Do they have similar w/ median home prices??