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Old 04-29-2018, 08:47 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,682 posts, read 14,804,749 times
Reputation: 3839

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Quote:
Originally Posted by markjames68 View Post
LI has been in transition for decades.

In the 50ís and 60ís, a single income family would have a good life with the husband earning enough at a good manufacturing or engineering job on LI.

Nowadays most families need 2 incomes unless one commutes into NYC for the higher wages there.

Nassau Countyís population was highest in 1970. The population in the whole US was around 200 million. Itís now 50+% higher but Nassau is smaller.

The past 10-15 years has seen an outflow of companies from Nassau and Suffolk. Companies with great jobs like CA and Symbol have downsized their LI workforce, which makes it harder for Suffolk families to make ends meet. And commuting to the city is painful east of 110.

As long as NYC does well LI will continue to have a strong service economy, but Iím dubious about a major resurgence. Biotech has been bandied about surrounding CSH but with little success to date. Who in their right mind would relocate or build on LI? IDA gimmes to car dealers and restaurants show how desperate local government is.

Even if LI doesnít lose population, its slower growth rate means less proportional representation in Congress, which means less people looking after LI. Long term, thatís going to be more of an issue.

As far as Nassau's population being smaller than 1970, that has more to do with family size than anything else.

People are having less kids, and Nassau has pretty much been completely built up for decades so it's not like their is a bunch of vacant land that can be developed into housing like you see elsewhere.
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Old 04-29-2018, 10:00 AM
 
4,620 posts, read 2,605,207 times
Reputation: 4108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
As far as Nassau's population being smaller than 1970, that has more to do with family size than anything else.

People are having less kids, and Nassau has pretty much been completely built up for decades so it's not like their is a bunch of vacant land that can be developed into housing like you see elsewhere.
I know the reasons, but again, it diminishes its influence state-wide and country-wide.

Nassau population 1970 / now - 1.427M / 1.361M
NY population 1970 - 18.24M / 19.85M
US population 1970- 205M / 325M

So in 1970 Nassau represented 0.7% of the entire US population, and NY 8.9%.

Now it is 0.4% and 6.1% respectively.

NY is losing ground, and Nassau as well, even in NY. They donít matter as much. They donít get as much congressional representation. Not a good trend.
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Old 04-29-2018, 10:38 AM
 
1,481 posts, read 2,707,131 times
Reputation: 978
With the SALT tax bill in place, I think there will be more renters (especially from millennials)
than buyers in the future. Just as many people come, as those who leave.

Again, I never saw so much traffic, so many apartment complexes and so much population.
Many years ago youíve moved ďout eastĒ, itís just like I just mentioned above. These apartment complexes are a fortune too. I know MANY who rent them. $2500+++++ for a 1 BD and over $3,000 for a 2 BR.
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Old 04-29-2018, 11:30 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,682 posts, read 14,804,749 times
Reputation: 3839
Quote:
Originally Posted by markjames68 View Post
I know the reasons, but again, it diminishes its influence state-wide and country-wide.

Nassau population 1970 / now - 1.427M / 1.361M
NY population 1970 - 18.24M / 19.85M
US population 1970- 205M / 325M

So in 1970 Nassau represented 0.7% of the entire US population, and NY 8.9%.

Now it is 0.4% and 6.1% respectively.

NY is losing ground, and Nassau as well, even in NY. They donít matter as much. They donít get as much congressional representation. Not a good trend.
I agree with that. I just think regardless of the COL or taxes issue more than likely Nassau's population would have decreased since family sizes are smaller now and there really isn't much land to build.
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Old 04-30-2018, 08:57 AM
 
3,788 posts, read 6,670,288 times
Reputation: 2650
Quote:
Originally Posted by hotkarl View Post
...and 806000 will move in.
so what.
You have that many moving in with you?
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Old 05-01-2018, 05:23 AM
 
Location: Union County
5,702 posts, read 8,134,463 times
Reputation: 4708
Seems many are missing what the author is pointing out... For the most part, it's about states being competitive for or attracting the high income earners.

Over the years, nobody has voiced any serious concerns because it's always been "as long as NYC" when it comes to how LI goes - it's like a safety net. Well, what is being stated here in this opinion piece is that the federal tax law is going to force the hand on the taxified overburdened blue states (CA and NY in particular). Author is saying it will impact NYC and that it will drive high income earners out of the state - not specifically from LI. The cap of SALT is not just about LI property taxes - it impacts high salary folks all over the state.

The formula was always pretty simple... Jack and Jill get married and sell their expensive coop/apt in NYC and move to the burbs (LI) where they can find a yard, schools, etc. It's done great for LI for decades. Who cares if people move off LI, they will be replaced from NYC. Well, the opinion here is that they will not be replaced from NYC because they will be leaving directly from NYC.

So the doomporn here is that LI will lose the greatest source of replacing those who steadily leave the island and it will continue until something is done about the tax burden... young money makers will have a very tough time convincing themselves the higher state and local taxes are worth it when you can no longer write them all off. Heck, that used to be a specific thing discussed when you bought your first home - the tax writeoffs.
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Old 05-01-2018, 06:22 AM
 
Location: Kings Park & Jamesport
3,114 posts, read 8,493,407 times
Reputation: 980
High income earners still need to work, most of those high dollar jobs are in NYC. Until that changes, LI will be fine.

In addition, middle class is getting priced out of 1) Manhattan, then 2) Brooklyn and now 3) Queens. So they are now biting the bullet and moving to Nassau and Western Suffolk.

As far as the writeoff change, we will see. I don't see it changing the needle on much. People get taxes on an extra $3-$15k. So goes life. I do think it will hurt the high end/ultra high end housing. People wishing to trade up from their $2.5 million dollar house may just stay put.
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Old 05-01-2018, 09:45 AM
 
1,366 posts, read 986,598 times
Reputation: 958
I don’t see the foreigners that are making Queens their home moving out of state. As long as a POS attached house in Flushing goes for 800k, there will always be a market on LI, especially Nassau.
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Old 05-01-2018, 01:02 PM
 
4,620 posts, read 2,605,207 times
Reputation: 4108
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
Seems many are missing what the author is pointing out... For the most part, it's about states being competitive for or attracting the high income earners.

Over the years, nobody has voiced any serious concerns because it's always been "as long as NYC" when it comes to how LI goes - it's like a safety net. Well, what is being stated here in this opinion piece is that the federal tax law is going to force the hand on the taxified overburdened blue states (CA and NY in particular). Author is saying it will impact NYC and that it will drive high income earners out of the state - not specifically from LI. The cap of SALT is not just about LI property taxes - it impacts high salary folks all over the state.

The formula was always pretty simple... Jack and Jill get married and sell their expensive coop/apt in NYC and move to the burbs (LI) where they can find a yard, schools, etc. It's done great for LI for decades. Who cares if people move off LI, they will be replaced from NYC. Well, the opinion here is that they will not be replaced from NYC because they will be leaving directly from NYC.

So the doomporn here is that LI will lose the greatest source of replacing those who steadily leave the island and it will continue until something is done about the tax burden... young money makers will have a very tough time convincing themselves the higher state and local taxes are worth it when you can no longer write them all off. Heck, that used to be a specific thing discussed when you bought your first home - the tax writeoffs.
The problem is all about "presence".

For most of its history, the stock exchange trading floor required companies to be physically there, with their people and supporting teams there or very close nearby.

Nowadays no paper flies around, it's all done electronically. And you can trade from Wall St. or Wisconsin. (this doesn't take into account flash trading where milliseconds count).

Same thing for many other industries that traditionally required a physical footprint in NYC. Now it's good enough for many to have the HQ building there but to expand elsewhere.

A 212 number and Manhattan zip code still is important for many firms, but not to have all the supporting functions there. Since 9/11 data centers don't even want to be near lower Manhattan.

When you have a global economy where doctors in India can review x-rays taken in the US it doesn't require much to see that the NY area can't rest on its laurels.
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Old 05-01-2018, 01:39 PM
 
1,156 posts, read 855,421 times
Reputation: 1311
LI used to have a respectable economy on its own in the form of the aerospace industry and defense. Those jobs paid well and you didn't have to schlep to the City for a nice paycheck. The Island began losing its mojo when Grumman left.

The public expected the good times would never end.

Similar employment picture repeats in NYC. Many Wall St. back office jobs are being transferred to cheaper parts of the country. People look at massive Wall Street salaries and bonuses and assume that's the normal wage, when in fact most employment comes in the form of support staff jobs that pay a regular salary. Those jobs are drying up, as well as the fat ones.

NYC supports LI at this point, and again the public expects the good times will never end.

I think as this progresses NYC will continue to be a draw, but it will rely much more heavily on a tourism economy. Tourism jobs are mostly service jobs and they don't pay all that well.

I'm not predicting LI's economy will crash, but I do think a reckoning is in the cards. The COL, school taxes in particular, is unsustainable based on my points above.

Okay, bring on the smack talk for using the "U" word.
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