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Old 04-28-2018, 10:08 AM
 
Location: Union County
5,702 posts, read 8,137,724 times
Reputation: 4708

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Quote:
Earlier this week, in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal titled “So Long, California. Sayonara, New York,” Laffer and Moore spoke about a provision within the brand-new tax bill that could create a mass migration of roughly 800,000 people - fleeing their estates in California and New York for better days in low-tax states over the next three or so years.

Both authors said capping the deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) to $10,000 will accelerate the velocity of the migration of high-income earners from the Northeast and California to regions like “Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ork-california

Been discussed here before when the tax law hit, but there's a bit more meat to the WSJ piece.

There seems to be a general sense from the LIers (certainly many of the regulars that post here) that this "migration" has been going on for decades and there's a zero sum impact... those leaving are replaced. The opinion piece seems to acknowledge this, but forewarns of the new tax law tipping the scale. It would be very difficult to deny that LI needs its high income earners. 800,000 over 3 years isn't necessarily a huge number (I think it is, but understand that this is predicted for 2 giant states overall). If you believe the article and the number, a good portion of that will be LI.

BTW - many believe the blue states deserve this.

For LI is this simply more doomporn or a harsh reality?
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Old 04-28-2018, 10:40 AM
 
4,620 posts, read 2,609,668 times
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LI has been in transition for decades.

In the 50’s and 60’s, a single income family would have a good life with the husband earning enough at a good manufacturing or engineering job on LI.

Nowadays most families need 2 incomes unless one commutes into NYC for the higher wages there.

Nassau County’s population was highest in 1970. The population in the whole US was around 200 million. It’s now 50+% higher but Nassau is smaller.

The past 10-15 years has seen an outflow of companies from Nassau and Suffolk. Companies with great jobs like CA and Symbol have downsized their LI workforce, which makes it harder for Suffolk families to make ends meet. And commuting to the city is painful east of 110.

As long as NYC does well LI will continue to have a strong service economy, but I’m dubious about a major resurgence. Biotech has been bandied about surrounding CSH but with little success to date. Who in their right mind would relocate or build on LI? IDA gimmes to car dealers and restaurants show how desperate local government is.

Even if LI doesn’t lose population, its slower growth rate means less proportional representation in Congress, which means less people looking after LI. Long term, that’s going to be more of an issue.

Last edited by markjames68; 04-28-2018 at 11:57 AM..
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Old 04-28-2018, 02:41 PM
 
Location: Inis Fada
16,685 posts, read 27,895,432 times
Reputation: 7177
Some of us who leave will be replaced by people who can afford the onerous tax burden on our homes. The rest of us will be replaced with 'investors' who will rent our homes to those who can not. The middle class will disappear a little more.
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Old 04-28-2018, 02:46 PM
 
1,159 posts, read 856,578 times
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People leave, but 800K in 3 years is nonsensical. The hemorrhage will probably be much slower.
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Old 04-28-2018, 06:00 PM
 
4,620 posts, read 2,609,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manekeniko View Post
People leave, but 800K in 3 years is nonsensical. The hemorrhage will probably be much slower.
Across CA and NY it’s possible but I agree it’s probably the worst case designed to grab headlines.
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Old 04-28-2018, 06:39 PM
 
Location: Florida -
8,239 posts, read 9,998,349 times
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Between 2007 and 2016, 6-million fled California - largely due to increased housing prices; an average of 600,000 per year. Lots of room for wealthy New Yorkers!

Why More People are Leaving California Than Moving Here | FOX40
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Old 04-28-2018, 07:13 PM
 
Location: In the basket
9,585 posts, read 11,172,323 times
Reputation: 5824
...and 806000 will move in.
so what.
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Old 04-29-2018, 07:11 AM
 
8,141 posts, read 12,509,845 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotkarl View Post
...and 806000 will move in.
so what.
Ugh i would never move to CA
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Old 04-29-2018, 08:34 AM
 
4,620 posts, read 2,609,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotkarl View Post
...and 806000 will move in.
so what.
I’m sure plenty more from PR are already in NY.
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Old 04-29-2018, 08:36 AM
 
Location: Northeast states
10,332 posts, read 7,234,812 times
Reputation: 2704
North Carolina, Florida, Louisville, Nashville, Dallas, Houston, Denver metro areas new spots
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