Agh, zombie thread raised. Still an interesting read.
Have we hit bottom? Not a chance. We're in for another year of pain at the very least. Foreclosures and reposessions are on their way up after a few months of them being on the decline. Short sales are everywhere, and only inventory that is priced right is going anywhere. Unemployment is 80% higher this year than last, and the job market is nonexistent. Even if the economy recovers, unemployment will continue to rise for quite some time.
Nationally, the market is up seasonally but down on a seasonally adjusted basis, as reported by the latest Case Shiller reports. In the New York Metro MSA, prices were flat, and down on a seasonally adjusted basis.
See here for upcoming foreclosures:
Long Island Real Estate Market*|*Tom McGiveron*|*Coldwell Banker Realtors, and a prediction of a possible 20% fall on Long Island.
I'm greatly interested to see what happens after the first time homebuyer credit expires. The Treasury is indicating it does not have the stomach for future bailouts and stimulus, and we're almost at our credit limit with overseas investors in government securities.
My feeling is there will be a void of first time homebuyers in 2010, assuming the credit is not renewed. They will all have bought in 2008 and 2009 to take advantage of the credit.
Right now, and increasingly next year, sellers are having trouble finding buyers who do not have properties they are also trying to sell. This means market liquidity is locked up, and as prices fall this problem is just further exacerbated.
All signs point to a resuming downward spiral.
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